| Nifty JAN F
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| Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
The Monthly charts are now projecting 8673 spot and 8825 as possible targets of the move above 8410- 8445 spot support band on closing basis. The Momentum will remain up this month till the spot closes below 8410 in the cash index. Last month’s highs were at 8626
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
Weekly levels :
(On spot prices)
For the coming week, support rests at 8436- 8452. A Move below 8450 spot on volumes can lead to another potential long liquidation and drop the index to 8290 spot during the week. Levels we will watching during the week on downsides are 8450, 8370- 8380 and 8310- 20. Upside resistance mentioned at 8581 and 8626 during the week are now supports. Higher time frame (monthly ) is in play and as long as we remain above 8626 likely to see second monthly target of 8825 spot.
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Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a trend day which auctioned completely above the profile of yesterday #) Volume was 126 L much higher than the 65L seen on Friday #) vwap of the day was at 8660 well above the 8577 of yesterday #) Day shows anomalies in structure at 8703, 8684, 8666 and 8640 which need repair in the coming sessions #) There is a failed auction noted at the lows of 8543 on – 19/01 #) There is another failed auction noted at the lows of 8427 on 15/01 #) The profile of 19/01 shows a prominent POC at 8574 which should be used by the market to assess fair value in coming sessions. #) The excess of 6th Jan is now replaced by a gap from 8348 to 8427 levels.
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8703 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8728 then it will move to 8768 and 8813 . Sl for this view is at 8703 .
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8701 then it will move to 8666 and 8643 Sl for this view will be 8734.
BankNifty JAN F : |
| Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term-
18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
The monthly charts project 19800 and 20020 on the BN index by Jan end as long as price stays above 19050 on daily closing basis
Weekly levels :
(based on spot prices)
19102 and 18920 are 2 supports for the index in the coming week. If these get broken then buyers should re- emerge around the 18790- 18820 region again. 19370- 19410 mentioned earlier this week are now supports. Spot hit 19800 today and if higher time frame continues then likely to see 20020 by next week.
Observations in Today’s session :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was also a trend day which auctioned upwards from Open to Close #) Volumes were at 28.9 L compared to the 20.3 L yesterday #) vwap was at 19650 against the 19428 seen on Monday #) Day shows anomalies in structure at 19752 and 19656 #) A gap remains between 19115 and 18769 F
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 19749 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions above 19749 then it will hit 19870/ 19949 . Sl for this view is 19705 and the idea would be to buy dips till 19749 holds.
Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 19725 then it can move to 19633 . Sl for this view is at 19749 now |