The end of the week was again a balance on friday closing out 2 imbalances seen earlier in the week, even as we move into expiry and a holiday shortened week of trading
| Nifty DEC F |
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16). Until the 16th of DEC the largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 was never penetrated by a drop of more than 450 points. In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. Conversely the Nifty has run up straight 2 times for 936 and 925 points . The upmove from 7723 to 8626 measures 903 points. The drop from 8626 to the low made on 17/12 of 7961 measures 665 points and violates the 450 points done previously. In such a case the market should drop by an extra 450 points and round off the correction by dropping a total of 900 pints.
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future. A drop of 900 points from 8626 will leave us with 7726 just at this reference point.
Short Term :
(On spot prices) The Nifty has managed to stay above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot. This region is also now new support over the short term. Over the coming week resistance likely to build at 8351- 8399 spot . Support would be at 8125 during the week.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF was in balance and operated mostly in the range of 15/12 done earlier in the week. #) Value was created higher for second straight day #) day type was a normal variation with vwap centered at 8258 #) 8147 is now a support for the short term. #) Anomalies on any upmove are at 8444 and at 8552 . #) The break below previous support of 8540- 8550 is on heavy volumes/ #) Scene of the crime point is at 8552F and will serve as resistance over the next few sessions. #) The market was successful in auctioning below the Failed auction point of 8540 (2/12)noted earlier.
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8270 then it can rise upto 8328 and 8380 .SL for the long view will be 8249.
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8221 then it will fall to 8175. Sl for this view is 8250.
BankNifty DEC F : |
| Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. Our 2014 target of 17680 has been met. Larger Imbalance objective above 17680 works out to 18700- 18934. (The High made on 07/12 was at 18875 spot.) Meanwhile 17680 – 17710 is developing as a nice base and a support line for the medium term
Short term :
(based on spot prices)
The Banknifty was confined to a 18580- 18200 kind of range even as Nifty auctioned down. When the support at 18200 gave way during the week, the BN lost 400 points quickly. However 18200 has been reclaimed again. The regions around 17680- 17750 have multiple supports for the index now.
Observations in Today’s session :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was again in balance #) Day type was a normal variation with a close at vwap. #) The vwap of the day was at 18524 and centered.
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
Hypo1) If BNF auctions above 18610 then it can move to 18672 and 18753. Sl for this view is at 18510 now.
Hypo2) IF BNF auctions below 18440 then it will hit 18300 again. Sl for this view is 18510 |