In a neutral center environment, both buyers and sellers tested each other out as NF finished yest again at day vwap and day dpoc.
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Nifty Aug F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : (no change) Medium Term : The Friday May 16th range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) forms the backdrop of the move we may see in the Nifty.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May16 th was 432 points.Targets for the Upmove remain 7900 spot and 8300 in the medium term. Support at 7500/ 7100 spot. Short term : Aggressive buyer seen earlier last week at 7652 F . New buyers seen on Monday at 7610. Resistance at 7690 F violated on good volumes and is likely to turn into support Support for the current week is at 7725 F from the auction of last week.
Today strong initiative buying was seen at 7772 F and is a short term support into expiry.
Either we close the week tomorrow at 7872 or rise higher into the close at 8000.
Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/ulxgo1caztqckg8/aug_nf.png
1) A market was imbalanced and had both sellers and buyers
2)vwap of the day was at 7903 and a reference area for the auction tomorrow
3) Day type was a neutral center as both buyers and sellers clashed and closed the market at vwap
4) Support still at 7875 F for the rest of this week now.
5) Failed auction at 7867 today below the 7875
Hypothesis :
Hypo1 ) We saw a drive off the open as expected in hypo 1 but the buyer could manage only 7937 before the seller entered aggressively.Holding 7915 at the open NF will go to test 7949/57 again and make an attempt at 7993/8000.
Hypo2 ) Weakness in the NF is below 7894 tomorrow and Below 7872 buyers lose momentum and NF will drop to 7850 and 7816-7806 for a test.
BankNifty F : |
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Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : Friday May16th huge range of 15733- 14430 Spot Prices provides a background to the entire moves we may see in the BNF for some time.
Short Term :
Last week’s levels of 15180 showed buyers early in the morning as BNF started a big 400 point move early. Holding above 15180 F the BNF is likely to extend the imbalance to 15657 and 15876 this week.
Current day Observations : https://www.dropbox.com/s/2cm8nnpzrhutlta/aug_bnf.png
1) Buyers seen earlier in the morning but profit booking again visible at 15730 near previous swing highs.
2) 15650 showed buyers re-emerging in BNF and if it holds BNF should do 15876 by close tomorrow.
3) Support now placed 15435 for the week.
Hypothesis :
Hypo1) If BNF stays above 15650 tomorrow it will go again to 15740 to meet the sellers again and a follow up above 15740 will close the BNF at the target of 15870.
Hypo2 ) There will be loss of momentum if BNF falls below 15630 tomorrow in which case it will reach 15570 and 15480 again below. |