The markets consolidated their gains in the upper half of thursday’s prices which was a trend day structure. OrderFlow showed a small long liquidation at the close but that was more to do with the weekend effect than anything else
EOD data at the close on Friday showed NF reducing 16832 contracts in Sept F of the 19064 it added on thursday. The BNF also shed 2012 Sept contracts. This data may be pointing to a marginally positive close late on Monday afternoon.
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Nifty Sept F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 430 points . Targets for the Upmove remain 7900 spot (achieved) and 8300/ 8581 in the medium term. Support at 7900/ 7500 spot. Our Profile studies indicate 11600 as a long term target on the Nifty in 2016-17 provided 6300 holds through 2015 Short term : On the Monthly Time frame we see September Nifty having supports at 7835 and 7706 on spot levels and targets of 8068 spot (done) and 8300 spot. The Market was consolidating in a broad 100 point range between 8075- 8175 F. Last Monday it broke that low and headed down the path of least resistance pointed earlier towards destination trade of 8020 F (achieved) and 7970 F (achieved) . As expected the NF bounced back . We maintain our view of expiry around 8100 levels On the weekly TF the Sept support for the expiry week is at 8057 F .Resistance is at 8162 F now.
Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/6h6tlot01rnzmqk/sept_nf.png?dl=0 1) Consolidation and part long liquidation at the higher extremes 2) vwap of the day was at 8138 3) Huge liquidation order seen at 8161 F. 4) The NF distribution was slightly skewed towards the downside at the close for next Open.
Other Observations from previous profiles : 1) Auction shows excess at 8100 in the form of the gap indicating short term resistances building 2) Failed auction noted at 7955 on 27/08 . Since it was not visited in 5 days we now have confirmation that the move off 7955 makes that level a support for the near term 3) Pull back low was at 8117 of trend day dt 18/09 .
Hypothesis : Hypo1 ) A break of 8112- 8114 tomorrow opens up 8085 and a possible 8056 in the NF. Shorts only around 8110 with stops above 8130. Hypo2 ) If we break lower and OrderFlow shows buying interest again at 8085 then NF can be bought again on price cross above 8114 for 8150/ 8160 probe again. In this case we would expect the NF to close near day highs.
BankNifty Sept F : |
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Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- Friday May16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680 . Short Term : On the Monthly time frame, support for Sept BankNifty is at 15875 spot followed by 15580. First target would be 16335 spot ( the BN did 16309 today- 11th sept) followed by 16605 spot
Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/lg4vnpn8e09hgy8/sept_bnf.png?dl=0 1) The BNF chart shows long interest coming back from 16080 levels but an adamant seller at 16210- 16230. 2) vwap of the day placed at 16150 3) Chart shows volume distribution skewed towards a move on the upper side on Monday
Hypothesis : Hypo1) If 16070- 16090 breaks in BNf near the open then BNF can fall to 15976 and 15911. Hypo2 ) A cross of 16230 will bring 16310 and 16390 again in BNF. |