The seller reentered today a bit earlier than where we thought he may come back in yesterday and drove the market down to yesterday’s buyers who did an immediate job of defending the auction again. Status quo at the close and we look forward to a quite session tomorrow though friday inventory control can make things volatile again in closing hour.
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes. Auction Market Theory tells us where to trade. The Order Flow will show us when to trade.
| Nifty APR F
|
| Background / Previous Auctions :Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.
Weekly levels : (first updated 19/04) review :
(On spot prices)
Last week the expected move to price objective of 8912 fell short by 67 points as supply came at the 8850 mark in a market which rallied for 11 sessions holding VAH and an MO of 80 plus. Something had to give and the sellers forced the late longs off the table quickly.
For the coming week we will find the Nifty trading close to the 8560-8580 support band early in the week but at risk of more longs being pushed out on rallies to 8685 spot.
Trading below the 8685 spot mark this week should point to new supply coming into the index . The sellers should maintain control till 8735 spot is not taken out convincingly and on closing basis.
. An upmove during the week which meets new sellers at 8685 spot should point to 8342-8321 spot as the final objective of the move these next few sessions with stops on a closing above 8740 spot.
(Update 22/04)
The down move hit the 8321 spot objective today and dipped to 8284 spot > However buying came back above 8324 spot and drove the index higher into the close. Our ref line for the next auction sits at 8542- 8556 spot where we watch OrderFlow for more cues .
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was 2 timeframe and dominated by OTF #) vwap of the day was at 8431 with volume of 171.6 L (less than Previous session) #) Profile closed near POC of the previous session #) Buying response was seen again from the lows #) Ref lines are at 8458 and 8336 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. #) Value areas are at 8454-8402-8386 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players. ———————————————————————————————————— #) Heavy buy volumes seen at 8336, 8372, 8432 and 8458 on 22/04 #) Day saw sellers at 8660 today ( 17/04/15) #) Pull back high of the day 17/04 is 8749 and resistance into any pullbacks #) Day saw sellers active at 8742 and 8752 on ( 16/04/15) #) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03 #) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03. #) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F on 13/03. #) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F #) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Apr Futures)
K.R.A is 8414 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If NF auctions above 8415 then longs should move it to 8458 F and possibly 8510 above 8458 . Sl for this view is 8370.
Hypo2) If NF auctions below 8370 then it should move to 8338 and below 8338 the move extends to 8253 . Sl for this view is 8415.
BankNifty APR F :
|
| Background/ Previous Auctions :( updated 22/03) Medium Term- 20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for Jan and Feb. There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels in March . This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions. We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.
Weekly levels : (first updated 19/04)
(based on spot prices)
Last week the fast move below 18800 on that failed upper move brought pressure on recent longs to close positions and the BN went below second support mentioned for the week at 18598 quickly.
For the current week there is more evidence of supply building up at 18724 and 18810 . We can see all up moves to these points in the coming week meeting up more supply.
Support for the index is at 18232 and at 18131 right below it. If 18800 is not taken out on closing basis the destination trade in the coming sessions is at 17900 spot.
(Update 22/04)
The destination trade in BN spot at 18900 was hit in today’s session and just like the Nifty the BN also went down below to check for interest. The bounce off 17900 is good but it is one we believe will run into early trouble at 18345 and 18470 if that is crossed. We maintain 18345- 18470 as a supply point where the seller may attempt to come back
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices) #)The BNF profile continued sideways in a range with extremes not holding #) vwap was at 18285 with volumes of 41.9 L (Less than the previous session) #) VPOC of yesterday was defended. #) Value areas are at 18342-18258-18198 . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ ————————————————————————————————————— #) sellers at 18510- 18530 on 20/04 #) aggressive seller seen holding 18740 on 16/04 #) we see aggressive selling at 19090 in today’s profile and 18885 also showed minor sellers in the spike dt 15/04. #) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03 #) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404. #) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone #) excess also at 19860 on 09/03 #) excess also at 20904 on 04/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18365 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions below 18305 then it should move to 18192 and 18075. Sl for this view is 18370
Hypo 2) If BNF auctions above 18375 then it should move to 18440 and 18550 Sl for this view is 18229 |