The markets trended lower again today meeting up with the high volume up points from last week
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Nifty Sept F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 430 points . Targets for the Upmove remain 7900 spot (achieved) and 8300/ 8581 in the medium term. Support at 7900/ 7500 spot. Our Profile studies indicate 11600 as a long term target on the Nifty in 2016-17 provided 6300 holds through 2015 Short term : On the Monthly Time frame we see September Nifty having supports at 7835 and 7706 on spot levels and targets of 8068 spot (done) and 8300 spot. We maintain our view of expiry around 8100 levels On the weekly TF the Sept support for the expiry week is at 8057 F .Resistance is at 8162 F now. Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/6h6tlot01rnzmqk/sept_nf.png?dl=0 1) Huge seller seen at 8136- 8142 2) vwap of the day was at 8105 3) Pull back high of the day was 8075 and resistance into tomorrow 4) The NF was an incomplete double distribution with a possibility of an auction between 8001 and 8075 tomorrow Other Observations from previous profiles : 1) Failed auction noted at 7955 on 27/08 . Since it was not visited in 5 days we now have confirmation that the move off 7955 makes that level a support for the near term Hypothesis : Hypo1 )An open below 8025 will drive NF to 8001 and a possible 7956 on long liquidation if 8001 breaks. Hypo2 ) If we move above 8035 at open then NF will probe 8056 and 8075 where OrderFlow needs to be watched for signs of sellers coming back. A move above 8078 will be a quick march to 8110. BankNifty Sept F : |
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| Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term-
Friday May16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680 . Short Term : On the Monthly time frame, support for Sept BankNifty is at 15875 spot followed by 15580. First target would be 16335 spot ( the BN did 16309 today- 11th sept) followed by 16605 spot
Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/lg4vnpn8e09hgy8/sept_bnf.png?dl=0 1) The chart above shows sellers at 16160 amd 16105- 16125 2) vwap of the day placed at 16021 3) Pull Back high was 16005 and resistance into tom Hypothesis : Hypo1) If 15910 holds at Open then BNF may attempt to rise towards 16016 again. Idea would be to be long with a 30 point stop for 16016/ 16110 near 15925 Hypo2 ) An open below 15910 will bring 15824 and 15739 again in BNF. |