The imbalance target of the move was met in BNF and just short in the Nifty today even as a failed auction at the lows indicated a higher expiry most possibly at the highs of the series
Accordingly the series expiry view will stand revised to 8573 or 8607 F of Nov.
| Nifty NOV F |
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.
The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 450 points.
In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future.
Short Term :
(On spot prices) The marked has managed to stay above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot. This region is also now new support over the short term. The previous swing high of 8180 spot has excess now and is also a higher support for the index.
The short term imbalance objective is at 8560-8580 spot which can be hit by the month end. Support for the coming week is at 8410 and at 8391 spot.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF opened up as an OAOR and sought to create a higher value area. #) The profile chart shows a failed auction at 8505 on 24/11 #) The auction of the day was a neutral day with a close near the higher end of the range #) Pull back low of 8472 on 21/11 is the next intra day support below the FA point of 8505 #) vwap placed at 8524 #) The market is still in a broader imbalance and may look to finish the series at 8607 or higher. # Bracket high of 8440- 8460 is new short term support for the index.Imbalance target is at 8558-8570 F #) Failed auction seen at 7752 F on 18/10. Hence the IPM off 7752 is a strong move as FA point was not visited. #) We see buying excess at 8232 on 31/10 and at 8122 seen on 30/11. Both these points are supports for the short term trader.
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8539 then new longs can be taken for 8558 and 8573. Sl for this view is below 8521.
Hypo2 ) If the auction goes below 8504 then NF can fall to 8471 pull back low and 8437 below it if crossed.
BankNifty NOV F : |
| Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term-
Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. Our 2014 target of 17680 has been met.
Short term :
(based on spot prices)
For the coming week the auction has support at 17830 and 17718. Resistance to the upmove will be at 18434.
Observations in Today’s session :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was a neutral day and closed near the higher end #) Failed auction detected at 17565 in on day T+2 now. #) Another failed auction at 18135 on 24/11 #) vwap of the day was at 18239 # Pull back low was at 18048 on 21/11 and is first support for the coming week. #) The second layer of support is at 17964 and finally at 17756. #) Resistance likely to play out at 18368 and at 18524 F #) Pull back low was 17024 on 31/10 and found new buyers there on 3/11 . 17024- 17040 is now a huge support for the BNF. # Buying excess visible at 16856 F on 31/10 .
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
Hypo1) If BNF auctions above 18360 then new intra longs again in play for 18524 . SL for this view is 18267
Hypo2) IF BNF auctions below 18260 then it will move to 18210 and 18135 to test the FA. SL for this view is 18335. |