Step 2 of the Stedlmayer distribution is playing out in the short term with an expected Aug expiry between 7840 and 7965 F aug series.
|
Nifty Aug F |
|
Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : The Friday May 16th range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) forms the backdrop of the move we may see in the Nifty.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May16 th was 432 points.Targets for the Upmove remain 7900 spot (achieved) and 8300 in the medium term. Support at 7500/ 7100 spot. Short term : We are now seeing a two sided auction as we come into expiry week with buyers and sellers almost equal in number and volumes. Support for the current week has moved upto 7830 F from the 7725 F in the auction of last week. Resistance will be seen at 7965 and then at 8007.
Observations in Today’s session :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ulxgo1caztqckg8/aug_nf.png
1) The market was balanced and had both sellers and buyers
2)vwap of the day was at 7921 and a reference area for the auction tomorrow
3) Day type was a neutral extrene again as both buyers and sellers clashed but the market closed at buyers’s extreme
4) Failed auction at 7867 on Thursday 21st Aug is now on day T+1.
5) The expected close near 8000 did not materialise but the week still closed at weekly highs.
Hypothesis :
Hypo1 ) If we open and stay above vwap of 7921 then NF can go upto 7965 where sellers should return. The likely trade is 7925- 7965 with a sl below 7901.
Hypo2 ) An open below 7921 would mean that the spike is negated and the market wants to rotate. In this case it should move down to 7901 and 7881.
BankNifty F : |
 |
|
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- Medium Term Friday May16th range of 15730 14430 in spot provided a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time.
Within this range as long as we close above 15100 spot, the BN will trade towards 17680 .
Short Term :
The target of 15876 given above 15180 was hit on friday. Support for the week now rises to 15624.On the higher side 16030 is possible resistance this week.
Current day Observations :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2cm8nnpzrhutlta/aug_bnf.png
1) Buyers seen at the open and neatr 15690 but sellers came back at 15820- 15870.
2) vwap of the day placed at 15809.
3) Support now placed 15764 for tomorrow
Hypothesis :
Hypo1) If BNF stays above 15870 tomorrow it will go again to 16030 to meet the sellers again . Some long liquidation expected around the 16000 zone..
Hypo2 ) Below 15820 the BNF will slip towards 15760 and can even do friday lows of 15690 if buyers do not show up at 15760 in the orderflow. |