Nifty FEB F  |
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 8200 now.
Weekly levels : (first updated 22/02)
(On spot prices) As we move into expiry week, 8750 holds the vwap for the current settlement and is this 8726- 8750 band remains the support for the Buyer to hold through the coming few sessions.
Post the late selloff on friday afternoon, a close above 8872 spot will reassure these buyers.
Resistance still at 9035 and 9142/62.
(Update 24/02)
The day low of 24/02 was at 8726 spot in the lower part of the band of 8726- 8750 of the weekly chart . The high of yesterday at 8869 was 3 short of the 8872 we are seeking. The Auction still remains under the control of the buyers particularly after the huge buying seen in the last hour which we believe tilted the auction to the long side. The close of 8762 set up an imbalance target of 8849 spot in the weekly chart to be achieved in next 1- 2 sessions
(Update 25/02) Spot hit a high of 8840 today and the market looks locked now in the 8720- 8870 spot zone.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile visited the scene of the crime from Monday but could not probe above last week’s VAL near 8845 successfully. #) vwap of the day was at 8825 with volume of 151 L. #) Profile was seen auctioning in the center of the 2 day DD we have been tracking #) High volumes detected at 8726 F and 8760 F on the BUY side which is the immediate support on downsides .
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
#) Scene of the crime is at 8958 from 30/01 where the seller first appeared. ON 05/02 we saw aggressive selling happening in the rise from 8830 to 8890 . #) Sellers were seen getting absorbed around 8626- 8644 levels and they will continue as important ref areas in the days to come
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8805 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8815 then it will move to 8845 and 8876 . Sl for this view will be 8801.
Hypo2 ) If NF moves upto 8805 in the morning but auction gets resisted then shorts should push the auction back to 8760 and 8735 F again . Sl for this view to play out fully is at 8814.
BankNifty FEB F :
|
| Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- 18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
Weekly levels : (first updated 22/02)
(based on spot prices)
We mentioned last week 19385 as decisive in BN for upsides but the BN did not make much headway above it. The week low of 18870 will continue as an important support in the coming few sessions .
The current vwap of BN is at 19280 for the settlement and it matches with the Jan series vwap at the same point. Hence in the current settlement the Put writers will feel emboldened only when this vwap is crossed. A close above 19380 will add to the comfort. Till then the bias will be down wards.
(Update 24/02)
The Downward bias created by the move below 19280 this week ( week high of 19219) went to 18737 cash where the futures chart showed us a Failed Auction which is a sign that the selling was overpowered. We look for a move back to 19200 spot which is fair price for this settlement as well as the fairest Price of Jan as well ( vwap)
(Update 25/02)
The BN came back and closed at the FA point. The long view invalidates if we auction below FA point of 18737 tomorrow and the drop can extend to 18393 cash again.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile visited the Failed auction at 18723 F today. #) vwap was at 18927 with volumes of 35.6 L #) The close at FA point opens up the possibility of a further drop to 18418 F levels below FA point. #) The balance objective at 19155 was not met in trading hours today #) weakness will persist till 18840 is recaptured by the Buyers.
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————––
#) a buying tail was seen on 10/02 at 18288 and should indicate the end of the down auction from 21130F #) The profile of 30/01 left behind anomalies at 20560 and 20368 in the Feb F #) The profile of 03/02 shows anomaly at 19768 #) VPOC of 30/01 placed at 20256. #) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18723 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions above 18840 then it will move to 18940 and 19035 . Sl for this view is 18775
Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 18715 then it can move to 18610 and 18425 . Sl for this view is at 18839 |