Expiry day began with a gap down which created pressure on put writers to unwind their positions through the day resulting in the Nifty dropping 140 points by close.
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes and the interplay working out real time is a traders delight.
Nifty APR F |
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.
Weekly levels : (first updated 22/03)
(On spot prices) For the coming week supply should be seen at 8669 and higher at 8722- 8754 spot which is resistance 2. The Outlook remains down till 8756 is not taken out on closing basis.
The Nifty closed on friday at the 8570 Minor support. We are 100 points away from the major support of 8473 which was our preferred route of the auction on the daily close below 8750 spot.
For the coming week we see 8510 and 8473 as the 2 major supports.
(Update 23/03)
The Nifty closed below 8473 weekly support even going to meet the other positional support at 8312. Holding 8312 the Nifty should attempt to cross 8470 spot which is now resistance.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a trend day . #) vwap of the day was at 8520 with volume of 148.9 L. #) Day saw sellers coming at 8560-8532 and a fresh round of selling at 8500- 8492 in closing hour. #) Auction reached the imbalance objective of 8432 F near the close #) Value areas are at 8564- 8558– 8484 #) Auction closed at 8455 and should remain in a smaller 8432- 8484 range tom.
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
#) Anomalies in the profile of 19/03 are at 8766 and 8804. #) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03 #) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03. #) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F on 13/03. #) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F #) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Mar Futures)
K.R.A is 8420 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8402 then shorts stay in control for 8360 F . Sl for this view is 8435.
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above 8420 then it should move to 8482 and 8524. Sl for this view is 8402.
BankNifty APR F :
|
| Background/ Previous Auctions :
( updated 22/03)
Weekly levels : (first updated 22/03)
(based on spot prices)
The BN has support at 18550 and 18392 during the week and below that the year low of 18211 should provide relief. Resistance to any upmoves are at 18920 and 19100 during the week
Last week we pointed 19390 as supply and the BN stopped at 19373. This week we maintain 19204 as the min level for the bulls to cross to get a toehold in the instrument again. Till then it will remain sell on rises.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices) #) The BNF profile was a trend day #) vwap was at 18230 with volumes of 29.6 L #) Anomaly at 18240 on 27/03 #) selling excess at 18435 on 27/03 #) Buying tail at 17955 can potentially mean an end to the down auction of the past week. #) WE see a failed auction at 19056 on 20/03 on day T+4 today #) We see another failed auction at 18800 on 24/03 on day T+2 #) excess at 18960 on 23/03 #) Value areas are at 18376- 18320- 18128. —————————————————————————————————————————————————————––
#) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03 #) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404. #) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone #) excess also at 19860 on 09/03 #) excess also at 20904 on 04/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 17955( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions below 17895 then it should move to 17780 and 17656 . . Sl for this view is 17965
Hypo2) If BNF auctions above 17955 then it can move to 18103 and 18248 . Sl for this view is at 17895 |