Levels and Plan for 28/11/14

 Medium Term : 

We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.

The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 450 points.

In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future.

Short Term : 

(On spot prices)

The marked has managed to stay above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot. This region is also now new support over the short term.  The previous swing high of 8180 spot has excess now and is also a higher support for the index.

The short term imbalance objective is at 8560-8580 spot which can be hit by the month end. Support for the coming week is at 8410 and at 8391 spot.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF was a triple inside day today

#) The auction of the day was rotational and 2 timeframe

#) Last week’s highs at 8559 are still resisting attempts at an upmove

# Bracket high of 8470- 8460 is new short term support for the index.

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

Hypo1 ) If the auction goes above 8554 then NF will reattempt 8570 and then 8600. SL for this view is 8529.

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8519 then NF can move to 8495 and 8462. Sl for this view is 8537.

BankNifty DEC F :

 Medium Term-

  Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time.  Our 2014 target of 17680 has been met.

Short term :

(based on spot prices)

For the coming week the auction has support at 17830 and 17718. Resistance to the upmove will be at 18434.

Observations in Today’s session :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was rotational and 2 timeframe

#) vwap of the day was at 17978

#)Day Range was almost inside yesterday but value was created sideways

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

Hypo1) If BNF auctions above 18175 then it can move to 18270 an 18338. Sl for this view will be 18102

Hypo2)  IF BNF auctions below 18090 then it can rotate down to 18015 again. sl for this view will be 18135.