MO reached -65 today in a trade which looked and and went down like last Monday below a known support. But the risk on the short side is rising now and just like we saw earlier this month how easy a reversal gets when MO reaches extremes, we may get to see something similar. But there s expiry and the month end and the trend till then is down.
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes. Auction Market Theory tells us where to trade. The Order Flow will show us when to trade.
| Nifty APR F
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| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future. At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.
Weekly levels :
(first updated 26/04) maintain sell on rise :
(On spot prices)
Last week we spoke on “longs being pushed out on rallies” and the market moved lower into the close shorting every rise in sight. Into expiry week the play is clearly between the 8300 PE writers and the 8500 CE players who are much much stronger. The threat therefore is If and when the 8300 PE comes under pressure what kind of liquidation happens.
Price wise on the spot we are seeing signs of short covering happening at levels below 8280 spot and so far we have not seen a decisive close below 8300 strike which should send alarm bells ringing for 8300 PE writers.
The rise from 7723 FA point has one last support at 8257 before 8065 spot 200 points below. Our first support for the coming week is at 8257 below which we are expecting 8143 and 8065 .
The bull feels confident if he closes above 8365 early in the week. If that happens the market bounces off to 8410and 8473.
Overall for the week the market is still suspect on bounces till we do not cross 8500 spot convincingly. The vwap for the current settlement is at 8548 currently and should drop closed to 8510 by the week close.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile showed sellers early at the open who pushed the index down #) vwap of the day was at 8261 with volume of 133.9 L (More than Previous session) #) Profile closed near day lows and below the spike of Friday #) Ref lines are at 8177 and 8263 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. #) Value areas are at 8280-8268-8228 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players. ————————————————————————————————————
#) Day saw sellers at 8660 today ( 17/04/15) #) Pull back high of the day 17/04 is 8749 and resistance into any pullbacks #) Day saw sellers active at 8742 and 8752 on ( 16/04/15) #) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03 #) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03. #) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F on 13/03. #) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F #) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Apr Futures)
K.R.A is 8210 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If NF auctions above 8262 then longs should move it to 8296 F and 8332 . Sl for this view is 8210.
Hypo2) If NF auctions below 8210 then it should move to 8166 . Sl for this view is 8255.
BankNifty APR F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :
( updated 22/03)
Weekly levels : (first updated 26/04)
(based on spot prices)
Last week we spoke on 17900 as support and supply coming near 18470 spot. For the coming week we see BN in a holding pattern and rotating between 17800 to 18450 spot zone of last week.
18174 is the bias point on the weekly tilting the range either side. Maintain pause on this index .
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#)The BNF profile shows a seller near 18100- 18130 who tilted the bias towards down early #) vwap was at 17909 with volumes of 32.3 L (Less than the previous session) #) Ref lines are at 17927 and 17664 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. #) Value areas are at 18012-17904-17856 . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ ————————————————————————————————————— #) sellers at 18510- 18530 on 20/04 #) aggressive seller seen holding 18740 on 16/04 #) we see aggressive selling at 19090 in today’s profile and 18885 also showed minor sellers in the spike dt 15/04. #) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03 #) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404. #) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone #) excess also at 19860 on 09/03 #) excess also at 20904 on 04/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 17880 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions below 17880 then it should move to 17755 and 17574. Sl for this view is 17999.
Hypo 2) If BNF auctions above 18165 then it should move to 18240 and 18290 Sl for this view is 18035. |