An OAOR type Open saw buyers and sellers settling on new value one day ahead of expiry day
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Nifty Aug F |
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Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : The Friday May 16th range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) forms the backdrop of the move we may see in the Nifty.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May16 th was 432 points.Targets for the Upmove remain 7900 spot (achieved) and 8300 in the medium term. Support at 7500/ 7100 spot. Short term : We are now seeing a two sided auction as we come into expiry week with buyers and sellers almost equal in number and volumes. This is confirmation of Step 2 of the Steidlmayer Distribution discussed in earlier pages here. Support for the current week has moved upto 7830 F from the 7725 F in the auction of last week. Resistance will be seen at 7965 and then at 8007.
Observations in Today’s session :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ulxgo1caztqckg8/aug_nf.png
1) An OAOR open and a normal distribution curve
2)vwap of the day was at 7935
3) Day type was a normal distribution and the market closed at buyer’s extreme after good responsive buying from previous day’s VAH.
4) Failed auction noted today at 7911.
5) Our expiry week view of an auction between 7830- 7965 F has played out majorly and in all likelihood we get an expiry near the highs tomorrow.
Hypothesis :
Hypo1 ) We will be looking at longs above 7948 tomorrow for 7972/ 7985 with stops below 7929.
Hypo2 ) Below 7901 the NF would trade to 7874 and a possible 7833.
BankNifty F : |
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Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- Medium Term Friday May16th range of 15730 14430 in spot provided a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time.
Within this range as long as we close above 15100 spot, the BN will trade towards 17680 .
Short Term :
The target of 15876 given above 15180 was hit on friday. Support for the week now rises to 15624.On the higher side 16030 is possible resistance this week.
Current day Observations :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2cm8nnpzrhutlta/aug_bnf.png
1) A balanced auction with value created higher on the day
2) vwap of the day placed at 15713
3) Auction filling up the low volume drive from 25/08 and should continue higher tomorrow
4) Not much buying seen above the Hypo1 target if 15744 which was done at Open
Hypothesis :
Hypo1) A move above 15660 will be confirmation of the continuity we want to see and BNF can do 15860/ 15878 if that happens
Hypo2 )Below 15660 the BNF will go to retest 15560. |