Ahead of the special budget session the bull reversed the expiry trade and took the Nifty back over feb vwap and just at the 8840 close we tracked all Feb. It remains an Open session tomorrow with sentiment as trigger but we will still watch price n volume action at key price points highlighted below
| Nifty MAR F
|
| Background / Previous Auctions :Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 8200 now.
Weekly levels : (first updated 22/02)
(On spot prices) As we move into expiry week, 8750 holds the vwap for the current settlement and is this 8726- 8750 band remains the support for the Buyer to hold through the coming few sessions.
Post the late selloff on friday afternoon, a close above 8872 spot will reassure these buyers.
Resistance still at 9035 and 9142/62.
(Update 24/02)
The day low of 24/02 was at 8726 spot in the lower part of the band of 8726- 8750 of the weekly chart . The high of yesterday at 8869 was 3 short of the 8872 we are seeking. The Auction still remains under the control of the buyers particularly after the huge buying seen in the last hour which we believe tilted the auction to the long side. The close of 8762 set up an imbalance target of 8849 spot in the weekly chart to be achieved in next 1- 2 sessions
(Update 25/02) Spot hit a high of 8840 today and the market looks locked now in the 8720- 8870 spot zone.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile rejected the expiry close and travelled higher all day #) vwap of the day was at 8821 with volume of 137.7 L. #) Profile closed higher im imbalance with 8947 F still pending on upside #) High volumes detected at 8719 F on the Buy Side on 26/02 #) High buy volumes seen at 8814- 8822 and 8852 F which should cushion any falls in coming sessions #) We maintain the higher imbalance objectives given below yesterday —————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
#) 8795 F is the hurdle for the Bull in the session tomorrow, cross of which can put the bull on track for 9104 and 9406 in the coming 2 sessions. if the bullish sentiment prevails through the Budget session. #) However a failure at 8794 F can mean a quick visit to 8641 F and 8488 in the coming sessions.
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8900 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8900 then it will move to 8947 immediately and above 8947 the imbalance objective is 9100 F . Sl for this view will be 8854
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8809 then it will drop to 8752 immediately and below 8752 the imbalance objective is at 8641 . Sl for this view is 8854.
BankNifty Mar F :
|
| Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term-
18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
Weekly levels : (first updated 22/02)
(based on spot prices)
We mentioned last week 19385 as decisive in BN for upsides but the BN did not make much headway above it. The week low of 18870 will continue as an important support in the coming few sessions .
(Update 27/02) Resistance for the spot is at series vwap of 19210- 19270. If it overcomes these levels huge short covering can unfold in the coming sessions.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile auctioned all day higher and closed at day highs #) vwap was at 19011 with volumes of 38 L #) Huge buying volumes were seen at 18910- 18935 and 19000 and 19145 in the BNF today #) Profile finished in imbalance and likely to target 19424 tomorrow. #) Above 19425 the imbalance extends to 19838 for the session tomorrow
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————––
#) There are 2 resistances overhead for the Market now at 18898 and 19010 F #) The March F imbalance objective is at 18590 and the BNF was 60 points short at close. #) If the resistances are overcome then BNF should make a move to 19400 F in next 1-2 sessions.
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 19210 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions above 19210 then it will move to 19425 and above 19425 the imbalance is to 19774-19838 zone . Sl for this view is 19090
Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 19090 then it can move to 18950 and 18600 . Sl for this view is at 19195 |