Levels and Plan for 28th Jan

Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).

The Monthly charts projecting targets of  8673 spot and 8825 have both been scaled even as 4 sessions remain to close out the month. The Momentum will remain up through FEB as long as  the spot closes above 8610 in the cash index. Last month’s highs were at 8626

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

Weekly levels  : 

(On spot prices)

Support now moves up to the 8705- 8735 spot zone for expiry and the month end. The daily charts can spill the imbalance to 8936 spot above 8825

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile tested previous day POC and bounced higher

#) vwap of the day was at 8869 well above the  8845 of the previous session

#) Profile of 27/01 shows anomalies at 8878 and 8904 which need repair

#) 8876 the region of the new breakout should support pullbacks even as imbalance can extend to 9005 if we auction above 8940.

#) Day Profile of 20/01 shows anomalies in structure at 8703, 8684, 8666 and 8640 which need repair in the coming sessions

#) There is a failed auction noted at the lows of 8543 on – 19/01

#) There is another  failed auction noted at the lows of 8427 on 15/01

#) The excess of 6th Jan is now replaced by a gap from 8348 to 8427 levels.

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8875 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8875  then it will move to 8940 and above 8942 the move is to 9005 . Sl for this view is at 8865 Vah .

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8854  then it will move  to 8827 and 8810   Sl for this view will be 8875.

BankNifty JAN F :

Medium Term-  

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

The monthly charts have hit their projected 19800 and 20020 with 4 full sessions remaining.

Weekly levels :

(based on spot prices)

19868 -19780 spot is a support band in the BN for the expiry and the rest of this month. The Imbalance objective on the monthly scale can extend to 20485 on the spot .

Observations in Today’s session :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile showed short covering and extended higher into the close

#) vwap was at 20306 today

#) Anomalies in the profile of 27/01 are at 20472 and 20296.

#) Dayprofile of 20/01  shows anomalies in structure at 19752 and 19656

#) A gap remains between 19115 and 18769 F

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 20472 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1) If BNF auctions above  20488   then it can move to 20570 and 20650 again  .  Sl for this view is at 20429 now

Hypo2)  IF BNF auctions below 20424  then it will hit 20294  . Sl for this view is 20488