Finally after almost 2 weeks sellers managed to get a toe hold in the auction process and managed to keep most of the dominance by close – most not all of it.
Nifty July F :
Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
The Friday May 16th range of 7639- 7182 looks like a completed bell curve now as the market has successfully auctioned out the entire range, building volume. This zone forms the base of the move we may see in the NF.The projected range expansion is upto 8100 in index F .
Short term :
Buyers seen holding up the index F at 7466 and 7538 and at 7628 .. Projected imbalance target met ( 7832 spot / high of 7839 F .1st line of support this week at 7720F.
Observations in Friday’s session :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/v07iuc61bcadt58/OF_10min.png
1) Seller seen at open 7832 pushing the index lower
2) Responsive buyers came strongly at 7751 and cut down the sellers aggression
3) Buyers were not able to hold at 7807 and 7792 discussed in hypo2 on thursday evening and the market dropped as expected to the lows near 7747 ( low of 7751)
4) vwap stayed flat for the 2 days of up down auctions at 7791- 7793.
Hypothesis for Tomorrow :
Hypo 1) If we open below 7793-7800 then the auction will stay in the 7750- 7795 zone and re check the buying interest seen below 7760. Below 7746 there is another level of support at 7716-7728 where the buyer should make a stand again.
Hypo 2) Above 7807 the sellers of friday are under pressure and the market goes back up to 7839 and 7868.
BankNifty F :
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
Friday May16th huge range of 15888- 14418 June F provides a background to the entire moves we may see in the BNF for some time.
Short Term :
Supports in BNF for the current week are at 15270 F followed by the old one at 14830. Resistance at 15470- 15510 and then 15640.
Observations in Thursday’s session :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/nib52br89ukijnv/OF_BNF_10.png
1) A failure to meet more buyers above 15600 sent the BNF lower on friday and proved yet again – ” from failed moves come fast moves”
2) The drop from the highs of the morning was 320 points and just held support near 15270.
3) vwap went lower again at 15430 on friday
Hypothesis for Tomorrow :
Hypo 1) 15410- 15430 is the reference point for the early morning auction and we can see new buyers enter holding above this. Target anticipated would be 15510 and 15570.
Hypo2 ) If we open below 15400 then BNF can go down to 15270/ 15223 again.