Levels and Plan for 29th Jan

Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).

The Monthly charts projecting targets of  8673 spot and 8825 have both been scaled even as 4 sessions remain to close out the month. The Momentum will remain up through FEB as long as  the spot closes above 8610 in the cash index. Last month’s highs were at 8626

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

Weekly levels  : 

(On spot prices)

Support now moves up to 8860 from  the 8705- 8735 spot zone mentioned earlier in the week. The imbalance objective above 8825 at 8936 plus has been met and exceeded.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile of today was 2 time frame but again showed an ability to stay above VAH.

#) vwap of the day was at 8921 well above the  8869 of the previous session

#) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan.

#) Profile of 27/01 which  showed anomalies at 8878 and 8904 have been repaired.

#) Day Profile of 20/01 shows anomalies in structure at 8703, 8684, 8666 and 8640 which need repair in the coming sessions

#) There is a failed auction noted at the lows of 8543 on – 19/01

#) There is another  failed auction noted at the lows of 8427 on 15/01

#) The excess of 6th Jan is now replaced by a gap from 8348 to 8427 levels.

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8907 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8907  then it will move to 8944 and above 8945 the move is to 8965/ 8988  . Sl for this view is at 8882 Val .

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8864  then it will move  to 8837 and 8810   Sl for this view will be 8885.

BankNifty JAN F :

Medium Term-  

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

The monthly charts have hit their projected 19800 and 20020 with some  sessions remaining.

Weekly levels :

(based on spot prices)

20370 spot is the support for the rest of this week above the  19868 -19780 spot  band mentioned earlier. The Imbalance objective on the monthly scale at 20485 on the spot has been met.

Observations in Today’s session :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile rose up from vah earlier in the session for gains of 500 points but lost all into the close

#) vwap was at 20604 today

#) Anomalies in the profile of 27/01 at 20472 got repaired and the one at 20296 is pending

#) Day profile of 20/01  shows anomalies in structure at 19752 and 19656

#) A gap remains between 19115 and 18769 F

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 20588 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1) If BNF auctions above  20588   then it can move to 20670 and 20735 again  .  Sl for this view is at 20529 now

Hypo2)  IF BNF auctions below 20424  then it will hit 20294  . Sl for this view is 20488