The first day of the new series of October was quiet in the first session, almost random in movement but showed us an inability to auction above KRA 7930 and gave us a failed auction and a spike as reference points for the auction tomorrow where we expect wholesale inventory changes based on the RBI. The event itself has no significance to us, but the inventory changes brought about due to it, can give fantastic trading opportunities even altering an existing short term trend.
Nifty Oct F:
Background / Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: We have done a review on weekly charts at: http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-28-sept-01-oct15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a neutral extreme which closed at the lows of the session.
#) vwap of the day was at 7883 with volume of 102.9 L in a trade which worked a 7929-7817 range of 112 points
#) Day POC was at 7893 levels near the upper half again.
#) Profile was a neutral extreme with an FA at 7929
#) The OrderFlow of today shows buyers sellers at 7900- 7930 but buyers responded to te lower prices near 7830.
#) We anticipate a move back to POC 7893 in the morning session to balance the inventory prior to the news break.
#) Value areas are at 7920-7893-7860– for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit :http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
#) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players.
Hypothesis :
(based on Oct F)
K.R.A is 7930 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 7868 it could move to 7904 and 8002. SL for this view is 7815
Hypo 2) IF NF auctions below 7794 it could move to 7755 and 7711. Sl for this view is 7835
BankNifty Oct F:
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: For Banknifty we have updated a spot auction view with a chart at: http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-28-sept-01-oct15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile attempted a break above thursday’s profile but came back to revisit the lows of thursday
#) vwap was at 17359 with volumes of 35.7 L in a trade which worked a 17490–17153 range of 338 points.
#) day POC was at 17334 levels
#) Profile was a neutral extreme with an FA at 17490
#)OrderFlow shows sellers selling the higher prices near 17470 .
#) Value areas are at 17451-17334-17280 for bias. . For using value areas effectively visit: http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
Hypothesis :
( Based on Oct Futures)
K.R.A is 17384 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) IF BNF auctions above 17314 it could move to 17431 and 17719. Sl for this view is 17216.
Hypo 2) If BNF auctions below 17089 it could move to 16972 and 16830. SL for this view is 17188.
All Hypos to be traded with the mentioned stops and mechanically. If in the trading room, can use the Order Flow to qualify the entry and exit for the hypos.