That the expiry session of September on thursday was dominated by expiry related selling pressure was abundantly on display on Friday as new sellers failed to show up in the first session and a liquidation followed post news in the afternoon.
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Nifty OCT F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 430 points . Targets for the Upmove as long as 7900 spot holds (+/- deviation of 50) are 8300/ 8581 in the medium term. Support at 7900/ 7500 spot. Our Profile studies indicate 11600 as a long term target on the Nifty in 2016-17 provided 6300 holds through 2015
Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/4g5gs9rqde49cv9/Oct_NF.png?dl=0 1) Seller seen from the previous sell zone of hypo1 at 8020 who went on to hit imbalance objective of 7900. 2) vwap of the day was at 7970 3) OrderFlow shows sellers of 23/09 and below still holding short positions in the market 4) Today’s data shows trapped sellers at 7954F. 5) Buyers showed interest at 7968 and 7988-90 levels. 6) Day type was a Neutral Extreme Hypothesis : Hypo1 ) An Open which is below 8050 would put NF on road to 8007 and 7990 where we need to watch for signs of buyers coming back to defend . However a failure by buyers here will bring 7959. Hypo2 ) An Open above 8053 would put NF on track to meet 8106 and 8121.Sl for this view is 8031
BankNifty Oct F : |
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| Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term- Friday May16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680
Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/r4rbs7x5ci8huw0/Oct_BNF.png?dl=0 1) The chart above shows sellers closing near 15350 levels and a sahpr move up above 15520 on under average volumes. 2) vwap of the day placed at 15482. 3) The move from 15520 to 15700 created a low volume zone which needs to auction out to find response 4) 15430 shows trapped sellers 5) Sellers came back heavily near 15710- 15730 levels 6) day type was neutral extreme. Hypothesis : Hypo1) If we stay below 15789 in the first session then BNF should drift down to 15629 and and 15500 where OrderFlow needs to be watched for signs of new buyers coming in the market to defend the prices. Hypo2 ) Above 15789 the BNF will march towards 15888 and 16040-16190. |