Levels and Plan for 30th March

Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 29/03)

(On spot prices)

Last week we spoke of supply around 8669 region and the NIfty moved lower from 8627 but failed to hold the weekly support at 8473 and collapsed by the week close to 8269 on vwap based selling.

This week we see 8257 as the major support during the week .The Nifty should attempt a bounce as long as it trades above 8257 spot all week. We see first line of supply at 8399 and then  8473 spot is the major weekly resistance.We would be on the lookout for more long liquidation at 8473 spot.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile was a Normal variation day which resisted at the Hypo2 estimate of 8484.

#) vwap of the day was at 8428 with volume of 124.2 L.

# Day saw selling from VAL of 8484 very early at the Open and in line with the selling pointed out in previous session near 8492/8500.

#) Value areas are at 8462- 8432-8416

#) Auction tried to form a balance in the session.

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#) Day Profile of 26/03  saw sellers coming at 8560-8532  and a fresh round of selling at 8500- 8492 in closing hour.

#) Anomalies in the profile of 19/03 are at 8766 and 8804.

#) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03

#) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03.

#) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F  on 13/03.

#) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F

#) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Mar Futures) 

K.R.A is 8410  ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8402   then shorts stay in control  for 8367/ 8317 F  . Sl for this view is 8445.

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above  8445   then it should move to 8482 and 8524. Sl for this view is 8402.

BankNifty APR F :

 Medium Term-  20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for  Jan and Feb.  There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels this month. This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions.We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 22/03)

(based on spot prices)

The BN made new year lows at 17719 during the week. This was in line with our view expressed on 22/03 that 18400 was a weakened support and the auction should fall to 18600- 18700 spot.

In the coming week we see supply at 18202 spot and a cross above 18202 spot can mean a retest of the broken 18400 spot zone from below. The auction should stay positive as long as it holds above 18040 spot in the early part of the week.

We continue to see 17700 as a good support for the week below 18040.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was a neutral extreme day.

#) The day shows a failed auction at 17935 and closed at the prev day POC of 18320

#) vwap was at 18119 with volumes of  40.4 L

#) Anomaly at 18240 on 27/03 was repaired

#) Buying tail at 17955 can potentially mean an end to the down auction of the past week.

#) WE see  a failed auction at 19056 on 20/03 on day T+5 today

#) We see another failed auction at 18800 on 24/03 on day T+3

#) excess at 18960 on 23/03

#) Value areas are at 18216- 18048- 17958.

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#) selling  excess at 18435 on 27/03

#) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03

#) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404.

#) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone

#) excess also at 19860 on 09/03

#) excess also at 20904 on 04/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 18325 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions above 18325  then it should move to 18385 and 18426 .   . Sl for this view is 18270

Hypo2 ) If BNF auctions below 18270 then it should drop to 18183 and 18131. Sl for this view is 18330.