The settlement close was at the 8111 spot level we have been tracking for the past 2 sessions and vwap of Oct expiry sits at 8111 also after the close of the session. Most people treat vwap as a number ignorant of the function it has. For us at Vtrender, the vwap curve- declining or rising along with the movement of price above it or below it holds the role to be tracked. Oct was a rising vwap ahead of the September one at 7831. A falling market meeting a rising vwap holds the key to the immediate trend of the market.
Nifty Nov F:
Background / Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: We have done a review on weekly charts at: http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-26-oct-30-oct15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a normal variation day which closed at lows.
#) vwap of the day was at 8168 with volume of 92.3 L in a trade which worked an 8206-8128 range of 78 points
#) Day POC was at 8180 levels
#) Auction hit the series vwap today and we are looking at the possibility of a bounce from these levels. However, the sellers will remain in the driving seat till Nov F does not close abv 8202F.
#) OrderFlow shows sellers at higher prices again in Nov today but as the auction dipped lower the selling wasn’t aggressive.
#) Value areas are at 8190-8180-8154– for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit:http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
#) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players.
Hypothesis :
(based on Nov F)
K.R.A is 8111 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8165 it could move to 8192 and 8262. SL for this view is 8125
Hypo 2) IF NF auctions below 8111 it could move to 8086 and 8055. Sl for this view is 8146
BankNifty Nov F:
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: For Banknifty we have updated a spot auction view with a chart at: http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-26-oct-30-oct15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was alos a normal variation and continues to move value lower
#) vwap was at 17391 with volumes of 19.7 L in a trade which worked a 17540-17280 range of 260 points.
#) day POC was at 17382 levels
#) OrderFlow shows heavy selling again near the Open today.
#) Value areas are at 17436-17382-17358 for bias. . For using value areas effectively visit: http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
Hypothesis :
( Based on Nov Futures)
K.R.A is 17050 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) IF BNF auctions above 17396 it could move to 17486 and 17716. Sl for this view is 17290.
Hypo 2) If BNF auctions below 17222 it could move to 17133 and 17050. SL for this view is 17315.
All Hypos to be traded with the mentioned stops and mechanically. If in the trading room, can use the Order Flow to qualify the entry and exit for the hypos.