The first day of a new series saw shortcovering and buyers stepping up at lows to drive the index higher. However one day does not change a trend and the Bulls will have to continue driving up to negate the bearish momentum from April.
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes. Auction Market Theory tells us where to trade. The Order Flow will show us when to trade.
| Nifty May F
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| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future. At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8050- 9119 zone for the rest of this year. (We are revising to 8050 about 150 points lower based on March data) .
Weekly levels :
(first updated 02/05) maintain sell on rise :
(On spot prices)
The seller is dominant and the weekly time frame of the profile does not convince us of a low in place.
At 8180 close the possibility of a bounce of maybe a 100 points remains to about 8280 spot. But we maintain that rises will be used to create short positions.The expiry day showed long rollover happening in the closing minutes. We believe that these are stuck longs and would use higher levels to exit
We do not see the buyer in control till prices close above 8335 spot.
Through the past 2 weeks we have seen increased sell pressure from 8400- 8480 spot. Above 8335 spot this 8480 spot zone is the second level of supply on the index.
Lower down we see 8113 as a support followed by the yearly reference area of 8060. We feel that if the early part of the week sells off and reaches 8065 we could see a bounce from there.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile operated above the value area of the previous session . #) vwap of the day was at 8319 with volume of 124 L (Less than Previous session) #) Day profile of 04/05 shows buyers at 8252 F which marks a pause in downward slope. #) Anomaly also at 8342 which would be a place to revisit. #) Value areas are at 8340-8320-8300 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Ref lines are at 8427-8335 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. Big weakness below 8335 and Big strength above 8427 intra day. #) The breakout ref lines are price objectives of the move above VAH and PDH and below VAL and PDL. #) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players. ————————————————————————————————————
#) Excess at 8404 on 27/04 #) Excess at 8456 on 24/04 #) Excess at 8678 on 20/04 #) Day saw sellers at 8774 today ( 17/04/15) #) Day saw sellers active at 8836 on ( 16/04/15)
Hypothesis :
( Based on May Futures)
K.R.A is 8387 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If NF auctions above 8387 then it can move to 8404- 8427 and above 8427 to 8456-8474 . Sl for this view 8340.
Hypo 2) If NF auctions below 8335 it can drop to 8302 and 8287 . Sl for this view is 8387.
BankNifty May F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :
( updated 22/03)
Medium Term- 20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for Jan and Feb. There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels in March . This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions. We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.
Weekly levels :
(first updated 02/05)
(based on spot prices)
We continue to see this index rotating till it does not close above the 18450 supply mentioned last week.
The Bias point continues to be 18130- 18170 zone for the current week and we would stay positive as long as the index trades above these points in the coming week.
Above 18450 the index should stretch the move to 18650 and 18725 where the seller may attempt a comeback.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#)The BNF profile was an inside day . #) vwap was at 18592 with volumes of 23.9 L (More than the previous session) #) Value areas are at 18654-18606-18570 for bias. . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Ref lines are at 18710 and 18504 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. #) The breakout ref lines are price objectives of the move above VAH and PDH and below VAL and PDL.
————————————————————————————————————— #) excess at 18750 on 17/04 #) excess also at 17898 on 28/04
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18635 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If BNF auctions above 18635 then it should attempt to 18709 and 18816. Sl for this view is 18525
Hypo 2 ) If BNF auctions below 18503 then it should drop to 18398 and 18315 . Sl for this view is 18610 |