Nifty JAN F 
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| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16). Until the 16th of DEC the largest drop was about 450 points for the entire rally from 5110 levels. The drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points . In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. Conversely the Nifty had run up straight 2 times for 936 and 925 points . The upmove from 7723 to 8626 measured 903 points. The drop from 8626 to the low made on 17/12 of 7961 measures 665 points and violates the 450 points done previously. In such a case the market should drop by an extra 450 points and round off the correction by dropping a total of 900 pints.
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future.
Weekly levels :
(On spot prices)
The move of today broke through the support band of 8320 spot- 8290 sand collapsed to 8111 levels. The imbalance objective of the move was 8122 spot and the Nifty closed around this objective leaving a possibility of a further move to 8042 spot if a gap down occurs. This region should provide a bounce for the rest of the week and the quality of the bounce may produce the next round of selling. Remember the medium term objective is still at 7723 spot levels for the correction as stated above.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was 1 timeframe with long liquidation seen at a bigger level compared to yesterday #) Volume was above the weekly average and measured 202 L in Fut #) vwap of the day was at 8234 well below yesterday’s 8448 and a good pointer to the long liquidation seen. #) Buying excess seen at 8358 F on 2/01 was replaced by selling excess from 8422 which negated the multi day value created from 29/12. #) Pull back high of the move of 06/01 is at 8257- 8268 and is new resistance for the index. #) Anomalies seen at 8178 and 8216 which the market will try to repair in next few sessions. ( revisit confirmed)
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8238 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8130 then it will fall to 8082 and 8062 . Sl for this view below 8130 is at 8152.
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8153 then it will rise to 8191 and above 8192 to 8238 . Sl for this view is at 8140.
BankNifty JAN F : |
| Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term-
18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
Weekly levels :
(based on spot prices)
The BN collapsed below the support band of 18723 – 18610 today and fell to 18388. We have mentioned the importance of 18400 spot for the weekly trend up in BN above. The objective of the imbalance was seen at 18440 and the BN closed around there. If there is a gap down it should open around 18200- 18270 spot region. However if 18200 spot gets broken then BN can witness a bigger fall to 17820 region .
Observations in Today’s session :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF was a one time frame lower move today and closed at lows. #) vwap was at 18746 #) excess seen at 18920 on 02/01 was taken out by excess at 19024 on 6/1 #) Pull back high seen at 18817
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18820( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If BNF auctions below 18440 then it can move to 18255 and 18064. Sl for this view is at 18555 now.
Hypo2) IF BNF auctions above 18625 then it will hit 18770 & 18820 again. Sl for this view is 18540. |