The Nifty was quiet again for the second day with a volume just under 87 lakhs as it consolidated the gains from its recent run up
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Nifty NOV F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 450 points . In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future.. Short Term : The marked has managed to stay above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot . This region is also now new support over the short term. For the coming week Nifty would look to see if sellers are interested in coming back in the auction at 8410 spot. This is the short term target of the move . Support will be at 8188/ 8117 during the week Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions : (based on Fut prices) https://www.dropbox.com/s/4g5gs9rqde49cv9/Oct_NF.png?dl=0 #) The range of the Move seems to be settling down now between 8260- 8514 F. Cmp 8380 F #) Another normal distribution with a close at vwap #) The market had locals trading and breakouts and breakdown trading was not conducive for intra day gains #) vwap placed at 8384 #) Failed auction seen at 7752 F on 18/10. Hence the IPM off 7752 is a strong move as FA point was not visited. #) We see buying excess at 8232 on 31/10 and at 8122 seen on 30/11. Both these points are supports for the short term trader. #) Pull back low was at 8311 against the pull back low if 8182 seen on 30/10 #) Auction is still creating value higher and buyers are in control and holding up the profits ( No long liquidation visible yet) Hypothesis : ( Based on Futures) Hypo1 ) If NF actions above 8388 then the auction can play out to 8430 and 8444 mentioned in the previous posts. Sl for this move will be 8361. Hypo2 ) If the auction gos below 8360 then it will test 8346 and the pull back low of 8304/8310/ BankNifty NOV F : |
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :Medium Term- Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680
Short term : .Support for the BN spot is now firmly at 15910- 16000 up from the 15100 spot previous.
Observations in Today’s session : (based on Fut prices)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/r4rbs7x5ci8huw0/Oct_BNF.png?dl=0 #) The profile showed strong buying near the open at 17250 and a hint of responsive buying emerged at 17530 #) Day type was a trend day with open and close near extreme ends #) vwap of the day was at 17427 #) Pull back low was 17024 on 31/10 and found new buyers there on 3/11 . 17024- 17040 is now a huge support for the BNF. # Buying excess visible at 16856 F on 31/10 and value was created higher. Hypothesis : ( Based on Futures) Hypo1) IF BNF auctions above 17535 then it has a minor projected resistance near 17584 beyond which it will race to 17782/ 17792 F. Sl for this view is 17440 initially and then 17520 once 17590 is crossed. Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 17440 then it should rotate back to 17348 where buyers should respond again. |