Another Nifty session closed at the highs and the swing trade reached the major supply area as the market waited on the RBI scheduled for tom.
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes. Auction Market Theory tells us where to trade. The Order Flow will show us when to trade.
Nifty APR F 
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| Background / Previous Auctions :Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.
Weekly levels : (first updated 05/04)
(On spot prices)
Last week we spoke of a bounce possible “as long as it trades above 8257 spot all week”. The Bounce came and was good enough to close above both supply points mentioned of 8399 and 8473 spot.
At a closing of 8586 the Nifty would be stuck proverbially between a rock and a hard place as far as the coming week’s direction is concerned.
The RBI event should provide some more clues for the Markets even as we are seeing two timeframe behavior in the larger Time Frame.
Supply overhead is very firm at 8643- 8672 and on current volumes the Nifty would be unable to get past this zone. However if we do see a big volume day at this zone then we are open to an immediate 8796 spot, about 120- 140 points above this supply.A further move to 8912 on a closing above 8790 is what the charts tell us, should 8643- 8672 be broken to the upside.
Technically we would like to see 8630- 8643 at least once before RBI event.
First support for the coming week is 8541 below which all long options for the week are off for us.A further support below is at previous resistance zone now support mentioned last week of 8470/ 8487. Below the 8447 spot zone the upmove of last week is over and we should visit 83xx levels again.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a normal variation day which trended higher from 12.30 pm for the second straight day to close at session highs #) vwap of the day was at 8640 with volume of 89.7(lower than yesterday) # Wednesday buying/ short covering noted at 8584 and at 8610 supported the index today #) Buying was observed at 8670 today. #) Value areas are at 8676-8620-8610 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ ————————————————————————————————————
#) Anomalies in the profile of 19/03 are at 8766 and 8804. #) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03 #) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03. #) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F on 13/03. #) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F #) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Mar Futures)
K.R.A is 8669 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If NF auctions below 8646 then shorts should move it to 8603 F and 8563. Sl for this view is 8668.
Hypo2) If NF auctions above 8669 then it should move to 8692 and 8728. Sl for this view is 8640.
BankNifty APR F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :( updated 22/03)
Weekly levels : (first updated 05/04)
(based on spot prices)
From Last week – The auction should stay positive as long as it holds above 18040 spot in the early part of the week. The auction sailed past the supply near 18400 easily.
This week we see a bigger resistance up ahead at 18810- 18868. Just like the Nifty, on current volumes and Open Interest picture of the Market we will see that it may be difficult to cross. However if a big volume day causes a shift in inventory then we remain open to 19376 and 19456 above 18868 which is a move of 500 points from the mentioned supply.
18492 spot now is our first line of support for the coming week followed closely by 18200- 18290. The Upmove of last week loses momentum below 18200 and should drop down to 17800- 17700 where we reassess the medium term.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices) #) The BNF profile was a well balanced gaussian curve at the close today #) vwap was at 18640 with volumes of 28.67 L (lower than yesterday) #) We see a failed auction at 19056 on 20/03 on day T+8 today #) The failed auction at 18800 on 24/03 was revisited #) excess at 18960 on 23/03 #) Value areas are at 18702-18630-18576 . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ ————————————————————————————————————— #) Buying tail at 17955 can potentially mean an end to the down auction seen since 20000 levels #) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03 #) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404. #) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone #) excess also at 19860 on 09/03 #) excess also at 20904 on 04/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18810 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions below 18810 then it should move to 18618 and 18474. Sl for this view is 18845
Hypo2 ) If BNF auctions above 18845 then it should move to 18960 and 19056 . Sl for this view is below 18760. |