Levels and Plan for 8th April

Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 05/04)

(On spot prices)

Last week we spoke of a bounce possible  “as long as it trades above 8257 spot all week”.  The Bounce came and was good enough to close above both supply points mentioned of 8399 and 8473 spot.

At a closing of 8586 the Nifty would be stuck proverbially between a rock and a hard place as far as the coming week’s direction is concerned.

Supply overhead is very firm at 8643- 8672 and on current volumes the Nifty would be unable to get past this zone. However if we do see a big volume day at this zone then we are open to an immediate 8796 spot, about 120- 140 points above this supply.A further move to 8912 on a closing above 8790 is what the charts tell us, should 8643- 8672 be broken to the upside.

First support for the coming week is 8541 below which all long options for the week are off for us.A further support below is at previous resistance zone now support mentioned last week of 8470/ 8487. Below the 8447 spot zone the upmove of last week is over and we should visit 83xx levels again.

 (Update 07/04)

On RBI day the NF did about 13.5 L in Volumes higher than all the days of this series so far and if the Open helps then spot should move up to 8735- 8755 zone which holds vwaps of the past 2 months. With an MO of -70 we are not really encouraged in adding heavy long positions at this point . However price does not confirm any weakness yet and the market is not suggesting counter trend selling yet as we stay above VAH mostly.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile was a neutral extreme  day which trended higher from 12.50 pm for the third straight day to close at session highs

#) vwap of the day was at 8671 with volume of 135.7(higher  than yesterday)

# Wednesday buying/ short covering noted  at 8610 once again supported the index today

#) Buying was observed at 8622 and 8727 near close  today.

#) Value areas are at 8730-8708-8662  for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/

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#) Anomalies in the profile of 19/03 are at 8766 and 8804.

#) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03

#) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03.

#) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F on 13/03.

#) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F

#) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Mar Futures) 

K.R.A is 8729  ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1) If NF auctions below 8697   then shorts should move it  to 8662 F and 8642. Sl for this view is 8729.

Hypo2) If NF auctions above 8729   then it should move to repair the anomaly at 8766 and then 8804 abv 8766 . Sl for this view is 8694.

BankNifty APR F :

( updated 22/03)

 Medium Term- 20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for Jan and Feb.  There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels in March . This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions. We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 05/04)

(based on spot prices)

From Last week – The auction should stay positive as long as it holds above 18040 spot in the early part of the week. The auction sailed past the supply near 18400 easily.

This week we see a bigger resistance up ahead at 18810- 18868. Just like the Nifty, on current volumes and Open Interest picture of the Market we will see that it may be difficult to cross. However if a big volume day causes a shift in inventory then we remain open to 19376 and 19456 above 18868 which is a move of 500 points from the mentioned supply.

18492 spot now is our first line of support for the coming week followed closely by 18200- 18290. The Upmove of last week loses momentum below 18200 and should drop down to 17800- 17700 where we reassess the medium term.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was a normal variation day which saw buying response at the lows.

#) vwap was at 18570 with volumes of  42.67 L (higher  than yesterday)

#) The failed auction at 18800 on 24/03 was revisited

#) excess at 18960 on 23/03

#) Value areas are at 18606-18510-18444 . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/

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#) We see  a failed auction at 19056 on 20/03

#) Buying tail at 17955 can potentially mean an end to the down auction seen since 20000 levels

#) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03

#) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404.

#) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone

#) excess also at 19860 on 09/03

#) excess also at 20904 on 04/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 18630 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions below 18630 then it should move to 18528 and 18414. Sl for this view is 18685

Hypo 2) If BNF auctions above 18730 then it should move to 18810 and 18960 . Sl for this view is 18610.