The One- Off auction dominated by sellers on Wednesday was followed by a two way auction on thursday with Buyers at the lows in NF/ BNF and aggressive selling coming at the highs just near the close.
Nifty MAR F  |
| Background / Previous Auctions :Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we are still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 8200 now.
On the Monthly scale we are tracking 8750 as support through March. The Objectives of the run up are at 9036 then 9156 and finally 9280. Since the market is swinging up in 900 point increments the run off above 8668 can target 9568 at a later date.
(Update 08/03/15)
Post the RBI surprise the Nifty attempted 9119 just short of the 9156 estimate but failed to sustain above 9036 in the closing hour. The long liquidation which followed changed the short extreme short term and the market will have to dip lower to meet new buyers. Since the market looks to correct in 400- 450 point increments , we maintain 8750 stated above as a good place to buy all dips for the Medium Term..
Weekly levels : (first updated 08/03)
(On spot prices) For the second week of March resistance will play out in the Nifty between 8954- 8980 . Only a close above this band will negate some bearish momentum prevalent since wednesday.
Support lower is at 8825- 8844 price band and if this band does not support then Nifty can find security at the discussed 8752- 8770 band.
Our revised view from Last wednesday is below : However we believe that the Up auction is over now and the market will drift in a sideways 8844- 8980 kind of range over the coming sessions.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile saw buying attempts at the lows but aggressive selling at the highs #) vwap of the day was at 8949 with volume of 127.5 L. #) Day type was a neutral day with close near the higher end. #) Day shows buyers at 8920- 8910 and lower near 8886 #) Sellers stepped up near the close at 8992. #) We noted buying at 8930 at the close on 04/03 as well on the strong trend day down. This same level saw buying on 05/03 as well. #) Scene of the crime was at 9063 F on 05/03. #) 9062 is also an anomaly which needs repair #) In the extreme short term any rise to 9062 – 9080 is a short trade with SL above Pull back highs of 9105 for a revisit to test the original buyers of the first auction at 8810 F.
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————– #) Anomalies below are at 8881 and 8830 #) Failed auction noted at 8752 on 27/02 #) High volume buying seen between 8810- 8888 during the session dated 28th Feb and dips to 8870/80 should be seeing a cushion of support here
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8971 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8970 then it should move to 8921 and below 8921 the drop extends to 8855 F. Sl for this view is 9007.
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above 9010 then it should move to 9062 and 9087. Sl for this view is 8990.
BankNifty Mar F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term- 18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
Weekly levels : (first updated 08/03)
(based on spot prices)
For the coming week the BN has resistance at 19900 spot. Support lower is at 19410 during the week. However if 19376 breaks during the week then it will drop to 19277- 19204 immediately and 18872 if support at 19200 breaks
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices) #) The BNF profile met sellers at the open near 19810 but strong responsive buyers at 19600 pushed the auction to 19990 by close #) vwap was at 19725 again with volumes of 44.4 L #) Buyers seen at 19600- 19620. #) Sellers were seen again coming at 19970 near the close as noted in the point below from wednesday #)There were again buying attempts made at 19976 today and if the auction goes to 19970 again the area may be used to sell again. #) The Objective of the move down below 19970 remains 19521 now. #) Anomalies in the auction of 04/03 is at 20112 #) Pull back high of the day is at 20312 which is short term resistance below 20740 now. #) Anomalies mentioned below at 19520 and 19592 were visited.
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————–– #) Break of 20250 triggered massive changes in structure and even the previous day buyers at 19960- 19985 were swept away in the down auction. of 04/03. #) The Previous FA point in BNF is at 19883F . #) Profile shows strong buying coming between 19480 and 19680 which should cushion any falls in coming sessions #) Anomaly at 19592 and 19520 needs a visit and repair
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 19699 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions below 19699 then it should move to 19610 and 19512 . Sl for this view is 19740
Hypo2) If BNF auctions above 19725 then it can move to 19844 and 19920 . Sl for this view is at 19676. |