Levels and Plan for 01st April

Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 29/03)

(On spot prices)

Last week we spoke of supply around 8669 region and the NIfty moved lower from 8627 but failed to hold the weekly support at 8473 and collapsed by the week close to 8269 on vwap based selling.

This week we see 8257 as the major support during the week .The Nifty should attempt a bounce as long as it trades above 8257 spot all week. We see first line of supply at 8399 and then  8473 spot is the major weekly resistance.We would be on the lookout for more long liquidation at 8473 spot.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile was a Neutral day as the 3 day dormant seller came back strongly today

#) vwap of the day was at 8563 with volume of 99.4 L (lower than yesterday)

# Day saw selling coming at 8592 and at 8536 near lows.

#) Value areas are at 8602-8572-8546  for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/

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#) Day Profile of 26/03  saw sellers coming at 8560-8532  and a fresh round of selling at 8500- 8492 in closing hour.

#) Anomalies in the profile of 19/03 are at 8766 and 8804.

#) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03

#) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03.

#) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F  on 13/03.

#) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F

#) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Mar Futures) 

K.R.A is 8536  ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8536   then shorts stay in control  for 8498 F and 8452 . Sl for this view is 8563

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above  8563   then it should move to 8602 and 8630. Sl for this view is 8530.

BankNifty APR F :

( updated 22/03)

 Medium Term-  20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for  Jan and Feb.  There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels this month. This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions.We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 22/03)

(based on spot prices)

The BN made new year lows at 17719 during the week. This was in line with our view expressed on 22/03 that 18400 was a weakened support and the auction should fall to 18600- 18700 spot.

In the coming week we see supply at 18202 spot and a cross above 18202 spot can mean a retest of the broken 18400 spot zone from below. The auction should stay positive as long as it holds above 18040 spot in the early part of the week.

We continue to see 17700 as a good support for the week below 18040.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was a neutral day .

#) The Up auction showed signs of exhaustion at 18624 today

#) vwap was at 18467 with volumes of  30.7 L

#) Buying tail at 17955 can potentially mean an end to the down auction of the past week.

#) We see  a failed auction at 19056 on 20/03 on day T+6 today

#) We see another failed auction at 18800 on 24/03 on day T+4

#) excess at 18960 on 23/03

#) Value areas are at 18606-18480-18348.

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#) The day profile of 27/03 shows a failed auction at 17935 and closed at the prev day POC of 18320

#) selling  excess at 18435 on 27/03

#) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03

#) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404.

#) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone

#) excess also at 19860 on 09/03

#) excess also at 20904 on 04/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 18370 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions above 18370 then it should move to 18420 and 18550  . Sl for this view is 18270

Hypo2 ) If BNF auctions below 18220 then it should drop to 18128 and 18000 . Sl for this view is 18350.