Nifty Aug F: 11015 [11098/10901]
Yesterday’s report ended with this line ‘Neutral Extreme profiles have a very poor record of giving a follow up in the next session so can expect the 80% Rule to play out in the next session unless 11145 is sustained. On the downside, the FA will be the important reference which if negated can start a new leg lower’
NF not only opened below 11145 but gave a gap down along with an OH (Open=High) start at 11098 after which it probed lower completing the 80% Rule in previous day’s Value in the IB (Initial Balance) as it made a low of 11051 in the ‘B’ period to leave a relatively smaller range. (Click here to view the profile chart for August NF for better understanding) The auction continued to probe lower as it left an extension handle at 11051 to make a ‘C’ period RE (Range Extension) lower holding just above the FA of 11031 which was an important reference for the day. The ‘D’ period however broke below 11031 and sustained negating that FA as it made a low of 11005 almost tagging the 2 IB move lower for the day. NF continued the OTF (One Time Frame) move lower till the ‘F’ period where it made lows of 10991 after which it gave a small pull back to 11028 in the ‘H’ period but the inability to get back above that FA & day’s VWAP indicated that the probe down is still not over. After making similar lows as ‘F’ in the ‘H’ & ‘I’ periods, the auction made a fresh RE down in the ‘J’ period resulting in a big drop as NF almost doubled the range of the day in the next 2 periods as it made a low of 10901 completing the 1 ATR move down of 10913 from the FA along with a 4 IB move down. Incidentally, 10911 was also the 2 ATR objective from the weekly FA of 11447 (read previous week’s report here) and this imbalance of more than 200 points from previous close gave a sharp bounce into the close as the auction left a buying tail from 10901 to 10940 at lows to give a 45 degree move back to the dPOC of 11025 as it finally got above that FA reference of 11031 almost tagging the morning extension handle of 11052 as it made a high of 11047 in the ‘M’ period to give a 3-1-3 profile for the day with long tails at both ends but Value overlapping to lower. 11025 would be the level to watch in the coming session staying below which NF could fill the low volume zone between 10940-11000 and would turn weak again if gets accepted in the buying tail. On the upside, the extension handle of 11052 would be the immediate reference to watch above which we have the long selling tail of 11073 to 11132.
- The NF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
- The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (4 IB) [3-1-3 profile]
- Largest volume was traded at 11024 F
- Vwap of the session was at 11010 with volumes of 149.9 L and range of 197 points as it made a High-Low of 11098-10901
- NF had confirmed a FA at 11031 on 31/07 and completed the 1 ATR move higher of 11149. This FA was not only negated on 01/08 but NF went on to tag the 1 ATR move down of 10913
- The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 19/07 at 11478 & 11523 are now positional references on the upside.
- The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is another important reference higher.
- The settlement day Roll Over point is 11315
- The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.
- The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 11833 & 11714 respectively.
- The VWAP & POC of May Series is 11613 & 11696 respectively.
You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.
Daily Zones:
- Value zones (volume profile) are at 10972-11024-11065
Hypos / Estimates for the next session:
a) NF needs to sustain above 11025 for a rise to 11052-73 & 11100
b) Immediate support is at 11000 below which the auction can test 10980-965 & 10940-915
c) Above 11100, NF can probe higher to 11120-132 & 11149-160
d) Below 10915, auction becomes weak for 10896-893 & 10876
e) If 11160 is taken out, the auction can rise to 11176-187 & 11202-220
f) Break of 10876 can trigger a move lower to 10857-843 & 10824-802
BankNifty Aug F: 28499 [28924/28140]
BNF for the second consecutive day opened with a big & identical gap down of 170 points below the HVN of 28820 and made a low of 28750 in the ‘A’ period from where it got rejected and probed higher to almost tag the yVAH of 28940 as it made a high of 28924. The ‘B’ period then made an inside bar as BNF left a IB range of 174 points which indicated we could have a multiple IB day on a weekly expiry. (Click here to view the profile chart for August BNF for better understanding) The auction then made multiple range extensions to the downside as it left an extension handle 28750 in the C, D & F periods to complete the 3 IB move down as it made a low of 28551 from where it gave a bounce in the H period to leave a pull back high below VWAP at 28658 which was also around the PDL (Previous Day Low) and this indicated that the PLR is still to the downside. BNF went on to make a fresh RE down in the H period itself and started another OTF (One Time Frame) probe down till the L period where it made lows of 28140 completing a 4.5 IB move lower for the day from where it got rejected to leave a big tail of 150 points at lows from 28140 to 28290 as it played out the 45 degree rule to tag the dPOC of 28580 in the M period leaving a 3-1-3 profile for the day but with overlapping to lower Value. BNF could form a balance between 28580 and 28290 in coming session(s) before making the next move but remains weak till the extension handle of 28750 & the singles of 28863 to 28972 are not taken out.
- The BNF Open was an Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
- The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (4.5 IB) [3-1-3 profile]
- Largest volume was traded at 28580 F
- Vwap of the session was at 28582 with volumes of 42.9 L in a session which traded in a range of 783 points making a High-Low of 28924-28140
- The Trend Day VWAP of 19/07 at 30085 is now positional supply point.
- The higher Trend Day VWAP of 18/07 & 08/07 at 30598 & 30995 remain important references going forward
- The settlement day Roll Over point is 29250
- The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.
- The VWAP & POC of Jun Series is 30914 & 30961 respectively.
- The VWAP & POC of May Series 30211 & 28940 respectively
For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.
Daily Zones:
- Value zones (volume profile) are at 28430-28580-28833
Hypos / Estimates for the next session:
a) BNF needs to sustain above 28580 above which it could test 28660 & 28750
b) Staying below 28526, the auction can move lower to 28480-430 & 28375
c) Above 28750, BNF can probe higher to 28820-830 & 28870
d) Below 28375, lower levels of 28330-325 / 28290-275 & 28225 could come into play
e) Sustaining above 28870, BNF can give a fresh move up to 28922-925 & 29015-72
f) Break of 28225 could trigger a move down 28140 & 28080-78
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