Market Profile Analysis dated 30th September

Nifty Oct F: 11535 [ 11579 / 11445 ]

NF opened lower below PDL (Previous Day Low) and was rejected as it made an attempt to probe higher to get back into Friday’s range giving an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) to the downside and this coming after a Gaussian profile on the weekly plus a narrow range of just 81 points on Friday meant that the PLR would be to the downside for the day. The auction then gave a quick & good move lower in the ‘A’ period as it broke below the previous week’s low of 11485 while making a low of 11477 after which the ‘B’ period then made a narrow range inside bar with similar lows leaving a relatively big IB (Initial Balance) range of 83 points. NF then made an attempt to make a RE (Range Extension) lower in the ‘C’ period but was swiftly rejected at 11470 as it continued to remain in a range of just 20 points from 11495 to 11475 till the ‘E’ period and tested the VWAP just as the ‘E’ period ended & the ‘F’ started but could not sustain above it after tagging 11505. The rejection of VWAP was a new info which led to a fresh RE to the downside as the auction made new lows for the day in the ‘G’ period as it hit 11445 and seemed to be headed even more lower but could not extend the range further down in the ‘H’ period which was an inside bar after which the ‘I’ period made a higher high as it tested VWAP and the ‘K’ period got back into that narrow 25 point range of morning. NF failed to even tag the 1.5 IB extension of 11436 in spite of getting an initiative move away in the form of a selling tail from 11579 to 11505 from a balance which meant that the sellers were not at all doing a good job and the day’s profile was turning out to be a ‘b’ shape one with volumes being built up at 11480 till the ‘K’ period started which saw a big short covering move as the late shorts were forced to run for cover and this helped NF score a century as it went on to probe above IBH to enter the Friday’s range negating the selling tail as it made an exact high of 11579. However, NF could not sustain these new highs and was immediately rejected back into the IB giving a retracement to 11517 before closing at 11535 leaving a Neutral Day. NF has a HVN at 11480 on the downside which would be the immediate support below 11510 and one the upside it would need to sustain above 11568 for a test of the VPOC of 11591 in the coming session(s).

(Click here to view this week’s auction in NF)

  • The NF Open was an Open Rejection Reverse – Down (ORR) 
  • The day type was a Neutral Day
  • Largest volume was traded at 11480 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 11500 with volumes of 117.4 L and range of 135 points as it made a High-Low of 11579-11445
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 20/09 at 11330 & 11178 are now now important support levels.
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 19/07 at 11478 11523 are now positional references on the upside. NF has closed above both of these on 23/09.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 05/07 at 11965 is another important reference higher.
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 11630
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 11127 & 10960 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Aug Series is 10966 & 10984 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 11575 & 11547 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11445-11480-11528

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 11538 for a rise to 11550-565 / 11580-595 & 11618
b) Immediate support is at 11510-495 below which the auction can test 11480-470 & 11445
c) Above 11618, NF can probe higher to 11634-644 / 11660-670 & 11700
d) Below 11445, auction becomes weak for 11415-406 & 11375-360
e) If 11700 is taken out, the auction can rise to 11725-735 / 11751 & 11776
f) Break of 11360 can trigger a move lower to 11330 & 11296


BankNifty Oct F: 29325 [ 29955 / 29103 ]

BNF also opened lower around the Friday lows and broke below it and the attempt to probe higher was rejected as it made a high of 29955 after which the auction made a trending move lower to confirm an ORR and went on to make lows of 29360 in the ‘B’ period to leave a big IB range of 596 points which included a long selling tail from 29554 to 30081. The auction then made a RE lower as soon as the ‘C’ period began but did not sustain and gave a small retracement in the ‘D’ period where it left a PBH (Pull Back High) of 29470 but could not even tag VWAP which meant that the sellers are still in control as BNF went on to make multiple REs to the downside till the ‘H’ period where it made a low of 29103 and finally saw some swift rejection. The ‘I’ period then made an attempt to tag the day’s VWAP as it made lower highs of 29437 from where BNF turned down but could only tag 29240 before it made another attempt to get above VWAP in the ‘K’ period & this time it tested the morning tail as it made a high of 29568 but was rejected as it got back below VWAP to close around the HVN & dPOC of 29350 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile for the day with a small tail at lows which means that the sellers have a job to do if they want to continue making lower Value.

(Click here to view this week’s action in BNF)

  • The BNF Open was an Open Rejection Reverse – Down (ORR)  
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (‘b’ shape profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 29350 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 29413 with volumes of 48.8 L and range of 852 points as it made a High-Low of 29955-29103
  • The Trend Day POC & VWAP of 20/09 at 29075 & 28548 are now now important support levels.
  • The higher Trend Day VWAP of 08/07 at 30995 remains important reference going forward
  • The settlement day Roll Over point (Oct) is 30230
  • The VWAP & POC of Sep Series is 28416 & 27160 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of August Series 27858 & 27960 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Jul Series is 30425 & 30586 respectively.

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

  • Value zones (volume profile) are at 29045-29350-29488

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 29350 for a rise to 29396-415 / 29500 & 29550-580
b) Staying below 29350, the auction could test 29283-272 / 29225 & 29165-160
c) Above 29580, BNF can probe higher to 29650-670 / 29725-735 & 29815
d) Below 29160, lower levels of 29100-75 / 29020 & 28960 could come into play
e) Sustaining above 29815, BNF can give a fresh move up to 29885 / 29950 & 30020-25
f) Break of 28960 could trigger a move down 28850 / 28780 & 28674

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