Market Profile Analysis dated 3rd Apr

Nifty Apr F:

NF had a OL start at 11788 and got above the spike high of 11795 immediately which was a bullish sign and seemed like giving a drive up as it made a high of 11817 in the first 15 minutes but volumes were missing. The auction made a higher high of 11822 in the ‘B’ period matching the Monday highs but was stuck in a narrow range as it made an IB (Initial Balance) of just 34 points. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The ‘C’ period was an inside bar with a range of just 13 points which meant poor trade facilitation at these new highs in NF which did probe higher in the ‘D’ period as the auction scaled above IBH to make a new high of 11830 but again did not find any new demand coming in as it was swiftly rejected back into the IB. The next 2 periods ‘E’ & ‘F’ then probed lower to break below VWAP making a low of 11798 but did not break below PDH indicating that the auction still has some unfinished business on the upside. NF then moved higher for the next 3 periods as it got back above IBH in the ‘H’ period as it made a higher high of 11827 to close at highs. The ‘I period continued the upward move printing a new high of 11834 but here it got swiftly rejected as NF got back below IBH and broke below the ‘H’ lows to close just below VWAP. The failure of NF to complete even the 1.5 IB extension to the upside in such a narrow IB range despite making two attempts meant that there is no OTF (other time frame) player present and powered by this new information, the sellers then drove the auction lower with all their might as the ‘J’ period then made a range of 50 points almost matching the day’s range till then & went on to break below 11795 and the IBL as it made a low of 11772 almost tagging the 1.5 IB extension to the downside & in the process also confirmed a FA at top at 11834. The ‘K’ period continued to trend lower as it made new lows of 11743 and the move down then became emotional as NF kept falling till the close as it made a low of 11715 completing the 1 ATR move down from today’s FA. Today’s SOC (scene of crime) is at 11795 which will be the level to watch on any bounce and spike rules will come into play in the next session as NF closed in a spike of 11743 to 11715.

• The NF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 11807 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11792 with volumes of 83.4 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11834-11715 for a range of 119 points
• NF confirmed a FA today at 11834 and tagged the 1 ATR move of 11727. The 2 ATR move down comes to 11620
• NF had confirmed a FA at 11432 on 26/03 and tagged the 2 ATR move of 11632 on 27/03. This FA has not been tagged & is now strong support.
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 11673
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 11327 & 11448 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11767-11807-11828

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate support at 11724-720 below which it can go down to 11705-697 and 11680
b) NF needs to sustain above 11740-743 for a probe higher to 11766 & 11790-795
c) Below 11680, NF can tag 11661-658 and 11641-634
d) Above 11795, the auction can move up to 11808-811 and 11828-834
e) NF sustaining below 11641 will be weak for a move down to 11620 and 11608-601
f) If 11835 is taken out, NF can give a fresh move higher to 11850-858 & 11875-880

BankNifty Apr F:

BNF opened around the Neutral Extreme high reference & got above it and went on to tag the vPOC of 30690 in the ‘A’ period as it made a high of 30729 completing the 1 ATR move upside from yesterday’s FA of 30285 but then the auction settled for an Open Auction Out of Range leaving a very narrow IB range of 114 points as the next 3 periods ‘B’, ‘C’ & ‘D’ made inside bars staying above the PDH (Previous Day’s High) but could not sustain above that 30690. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The ‘E’ period then probed lower breaking below the IBL as it made a low of 30581 which was more of a mechanical low just above that Neutral Extreme reference of 30557. The auction then rotated back into the IB and probed higher for the next 4 periods but made similar highs of 30708 & 30710 in the ‘H’ & ‘I’ period and was still unable to get above the morning highs indicating that the move to the upside is getting exhausted. The ‘I’ period went on to make an outside bar breaking below VWAP to close below the lows of ‘H’ ending the OTF (one time frame) move after which the ‘J’ period started a trending move lower as it broke below IBL making new day low of 30486 to leave an extension handle at 30580 and entered into the previous day’s Gaussian profile. BNF went on to complete the 80% Rule in the well balanced profile as it continued to trend lower in the last 3 periods of the day and even went on to break the previous day’s low & FA of 30285 as it made a low of 30260 completing a 4 IB down day. Spike Rules will come into play at open in the next session and the spike reference is 30431 to 30260.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Down) with a Spike close
• Largest volume was traded at 30660 F
• Vwap of the session was at 30583 with volumes at 25.3 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 30729-30260 for a range of 468 points
• BNF had confirmed a FA at 30285 on 02/04 and the tagged the 1 ATR move up of 30705 today. It however tagged the FA today itself & the 1 ATR move downside comes to 29865
• The Trend Day VWAP of 28/03 of 30364 has been broken today as BNF closed below it.
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 30500
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 29061 & 29778 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30459-30660-30725

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate support at 30320-315 below which it can test 30285-260 and 30210-205
b) BNF needs to get above 30375-380 & sustain for a move to 30431 and 30485
c) Below 30205, the auction gets weak for a move down to 30158-130 and 30045-22
d) Above 30485, BNF can move higher to tag 30520-530 and 30581
e) If 30020 is taken out, BNF can bring lower levels of 29960-925 and 29865-835
f) On the upside, BNF staying above 30581 can probe higher to 30640-666 and 30708-715

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