Market Profile Analysis dated 3rd May

Nifty May F:

NF made a hat-trick of OAIR start this week as it opened with a freak OL of 11735 matching the previous day’s low & probed higher in the IB (Initial Balance) with one of the lowest volumes as it could not even touch 10 L in the first hour indicating the absence of OTF (Other Time Frame) players which in turn meant that the auction could continue to stay in the balance it has been forming since the new series began. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) NF left a buying tail in the IB from 11777 to 11735 and went on to extend the range to the upside in the ‘C’ & ‘D’ period as it made a high of 11809 almost tagging the yVAH but was not able to sustain above IBH and made a dip below VWAP in the ‘E’ period as it tagged 11776 making a mechanical low around the morning singles giving more confirmation that it was only locals who are present in the market. NF then balanced in a narrow range between the pull back low of 11776 & IBH of 11799 for the next 3 periods when the rejection at IBH in the ‘H’ period triggered a probe lower in ‘I’ period as NF again got into the morning singles to make a lower low of 11769 from where it was again rejected. The ‘J’ period started with a move above VWAP as the auction seemed to be taking out some of the late shorts and attracting new longs as NF made a fresh range extension to the upside making a high of 11824 but was met with big supply as was rejected back swiftly to close below VWAP leaving a small tail at top from 11810 to 11824. The ‘K’ period then made an inside bar after which the ‘L’ period probed lower making a low of 11749 negating the buying tail further as NF closed at 11764 to leave a double inside bar on daily. NF has a low volume zone between 11755 to 11790 which it could fill to further smoothen the 4 day composite before giving a move away from this balance but would need initiative action with good volumes for that which has been missing so far in the series of May.

• The NF Open was a Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day  (Up)
• Largest volume was traded at 11785 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11787 with one of the lowest volumes of just 58.9 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11824-11735 for a range of 89 points
• NF confirmed a FA at 11665 on 24/04 and tagged the 1 ATR move up of 11779. The 2 ATR target from this FA comes to 11893. This FA is currently on ‘T+6’ Days.
• NF had confirmed a FA at 11432 on 26/03 and tagged the 2 ATR move of 11632 on 27/03. This FA has not been tagged & is now strong support.
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 11722
• The VWAP & POC of Apr Series is 11641 & 11592 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 11327 & 11448 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11774-11785-11803

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to stay above 11766 for a probe to 11785-790 & 11804
b) NF will be weak below 11766 and could test 11749-742 & 11722-712
c) Above 11804, NF can probe higher to 11822-834 & 11856
d) Below 11712, the auction can tag the vPOC of 11684 & FA of 11665
e) If 11856 is taken out, higher levels of 11874-880 & 11904-911 could come into play
f) Break of 11665 would make the auction weaker for a move down to 11649 & 11631

BankNifty May F:

Report to be updated…

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction In Range (OAIR)
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day  (3-1-3 profile)
• Largest volume was traded at 30050 F
• Vwap of the session was at 30057 with volumes at 23.5 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 30237-29810 for a range of 427 points
• BNF confirmed a FA at 30047 on 02/05 and could not tag the 1 ATR move down and closed above it today. The 1 ATR move up from this negated FA comes to 30462
• BNF confirmed a multi-day FA at 29730 today and tagged the 1 ATR move up of 30139. The 2 ATR move up from this FA comes to 30547
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 29760
• The VWAP & POC of Apr Series is 30037 & 29762 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 29061 & 29778 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30014-30050-30160

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to stay above 30060 for a probe to 30140-160 & 30237-252
b) BNF has immediate support at 30045 below which it can move lower to 30005-29975 & 29925
c) Above 30252, BNF can probe higher to 30305 & 30355-385
d) Below 29925, the auction can test lower levels of 29864 & 29810-800
e) Sustaining above 30385, higher levels of 30461-475 & 30544-547 could open up
f) Break of 29800 could move BNF lower to 29760-730 & 29660-625

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