Market Profile Analysis dated 4th Apr

Nifty Apr F:

NF opened inside the spike of yesterday making a high of 11744 which was also the spike high and probed lower breaking below the previous day’s low as it made a low of 11700 in the A period. The ‘B’ period then made an inside bar leaving a relatively smaller IB (Initial Balance) range of 44 points. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The ‘C’ period then made the dreaded extension lower and was immediately rejected back into the IB raising hopes of a FA at lows. The auction then did probe above VWAP in the ‘D’ period but did not find any initiative activity so stayed around VWAP for the next period also which was a narrow range inside bar. The ‘F’ period saw some action on both sides as NF made an outside bar making new lows tagging that vPOC of 11680 after it made a high of 11733. The next period however opened higher and left a small tail from 11697 to 11680 to probe above VWAP and went on to scale above IBH too making new day high of 11754 but was not able to stay above IBH. The next 2 periods stayed above VWAP making an attempt to scale the IBH but were not able to sustain suggesting supply coming in at these levels. Unable to probe higher & stalling, the auction then turned downwards in the ‘J’ period and made a big move down as it not only broke below VWAP but also went on to break the IBL confirming a FA at top. Afternoon liquidation breaks can be big as we saw one yesterday and it repeated today also as the ‘K’ period made the biggest range of the day as NF completed the 1 ATR move down of 11645 and matched the low of 11641 it made on the first day of the new series where it seemed to have got some demand as that also marked the low of the day as NF gave a small retracement to close around the VAL leaving a small tail of 11657 to 11641 at lows. Value was formed completely lower for the first time in this series but NF can be seen making a composite in the new series with composite Value at 11680-11766-11790 and a little bit filling needed in the 11680 to 11710 zone which it could fill today before making the next move which could either be to move away from the composite to the downside or remain within the larger balance it is making.

• The NF Open was a Open Auction (OA)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 11710 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11705 with volumes of 86.9 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11754-11641 for a range of 113 points
• NF confirmed a FA today at 11754 and tagged the 1 ATR move of 11645. The 2 ATR move down comes to 11535
• NF confirmed a FA at 11834 on 03/04 and tagged the 1 ATR move of 11727. The 2 ATR move down comes to 11620
• NF had confirmed a FA at 11432 on 26/03 and tagged the 2 ATR move of 11632 on 27/03. This FA has not been tagged & is now strong support.
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 11673
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 11327 & 11448 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11669-11710-11725

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate support at 11657 staying above which it can probe higher to 11684 & 11697-710
b) If 11657 is broken and sustained at open, the auction can move lower to 11641-634 and 11620
c) Above 11710, NF can move to 11725 and 11748-754
d) NF below 11620 can give lower levels of 11608-601 and 11589
e) If 11754 is taken out, the auction can test the composite POC of 11766 and above it 11790-795
f) On the downside, if NF breaking below 11589 can bring 11574-570 and 11558-552

BankNifty Apr F:

BNF opened inside the spike and probed lower making a low of 30210 in the ‘A’ period but got rejected back into the spike as it made a balance inside within it till the ‘C’ period. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction then attempted to probe higher in the ‘D’ period as it made a high of 30377 but was not able to sustain & got back into the IB in the ‘E’ period and broke below VWAP but held on above previous day’s low. The ‘F’ period then changed the character of the auction making a wide range bar as it first attempted another move above IBH making a new day high at 30390 but was swiftly rejected & BNF then went on to probe lower breaking below the IBL as it made a low of 30124 but this move down was also quickly rejected as it closed inside the IB. The next period too stayed above the IBL leaving a tail at lows from 30210 to 30124 and probed higher to get above VWAP & then went on to make new highs for the day as it tagged 30475 getting above the spike of yesterday but not sustaining. The next 2 periods stayed above VWAP with ‘H’ making an inside bar & then ‘I’ period making another attempt to get above that spike high even making a new day high of 30494 but again this also got rejected immediately and this failed attempt led to a big move down for the next 2 periods as BNF trended lower as it first went through the spike zone of 30430 to 30260 in the ‘J’ period and continued the break lower in the ‘K’ period as it fell by 250 points making new lows of 30028. The last 2 periods then consolidated after this big imbalance leaving a tail of 30100 to 30028 at lows as BNF completed yet another Neutral Extreme Day, the third one this week.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction (OA)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 30350 F
• Vwap of the session was at 30274 with highest volumes of the new series at 35.9 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 30494-30028 for a range of 465 points
• BNF had confirmed a FA at 30285 on 02/04 and the tagged the 1 ATR move up of 30705 on 03/04. It however tagged the FA today again & the 1 ATR move downside comes to 29865
• The Trend Day VWAP of 28/03 of 30364 has been broken today as BNF closed below it for the second consecutive day.
• The settlement day Roll Over point is 30500
• The VWAP & POC of Mar Series is 29061 & 29778 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30177-30350-30431

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate support at 30120-100 zone below which it can test 30028-022 and 29960-925
b) BNF needs to get above 30176 & sustain for a move to 30210 and 30260-285
c) Below 29925, the auction gets weak for a move down to 29865-835
d) Above 30285, BNF can move higher to tag 30350-384 and 30464-485
e) If 29835 is taken out, BNF can bring lower levels of 28730 and 29680
f) On the upside, BNF staying above 30485 can probe higher to 30520-530 and 30581

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