Market Profile Analysis dated 5th Mar

Nifty Mar F:

A Normal Day is followed mostly by a Trend Day & we had mentioned it in Friday’s report that we could get a big move away.

NF opened below Friday’s low as it gave a gap down of almost 50 points and probed lower making a low of 10843 in the opening minute but got rejected swiftly moving back into the previous day’s range confirming an Open Rejection Rejection (ORR) which is one of the most preferred open for a big range day or a Trend Day. NF got back into previous day’s Value in the ‘A’ period itself making a high of 10896. The ‘B’ period was an inside bar making a similar high and confirmed a buying tail of 10878 to 10843 in the ‘A’ period. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction then went on to give a range extension as early in the ‘C’ period and not only completed the 80% Rule in Friday’s Value but also went on to probe above PDH to make new highs of 10937. The next 3 periods ‘D’, ‘E’ & ‘F’ although made narrow range bars but all closed above PDH and left another zone of singles from 10925 to 10896 confirming that the PLR is still well & truly to the upside. The ‘G’ period then gave a fresh range extension to the upside as NF tagged the 2 IB of 10949 as it made a high of 10955 after which the ‘H’ period then made another small range bar as the auction balanced for a bit but imbalance returned soon as NF made another range extension to make new highs of 10973 in the ‘I’ period giving an elongated trending profile for the day which made the case for a close at highs very strong but there was a chance of a dip to VWAP coming as most of the Trend Days give a afternoon pull back. There was no dip in the ‘J’ period though it made a narrow range bar and with no dip coming, the auction went on to make the biggest range on 30 mins for the day in the ‘K’ period as it gave another range extension leaving a second extension handle of the day at 10976 to probe above previous week’s high of 10983 and completing the 3 IB range of 11002 as it closed at 11018. NF continued to move higher till the close to make highs of 11040 and leaving a third set of singles in the day’s profile from 11013 to 10976 to complete the Trend Day Up.

• The NF Open was a Open Rejection Reverse (Up)
• The day type was a Trend Day – Up
• Largest volume was traded at 10934 F
• Vwap of the session was at 10946 with volumes of 98.2 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11040-10843 for a range of 197 points
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 05/03 10946 & 10934 will be important levels for the series.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 10796 & 10741 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10899-10934-11030

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF needs to sustain above 11030 at open for a move to the weekly vPOC of 11049 & the daily vPOC of 11067-78
b) Staying below 11030, the auction can tag 11013 & 10976
c) Above 11078, NF can probe higher to levels of 11092-98 & 11121
d) Below 10976, we have 2 important support zones of 10950-946 & 10934-925
e) NF sustaining above 11121 can move higher to the vPOC of 11136 and 11144
f) If 10925 is taken out then can expect 10908 & 10896-893 on NF

BankNifty Mar F:

BNF opened with a gap down of almost 150 points and into the buying tail of Friday’s profile but did not break below the PDL (previous day’s low) and gave a OL start plus a drive up on lower volumes. It went on to get back into previous Value completing the 80% Rule and made a high of 27203 in the ‘A’ period filling the gap down completely. The ‘B’ period made a narrow range inside bar but in the process confirmed a 100+ point tail from 27165 to 27053 which was a bullish sign. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction then made a range extension as soon as the ‘C’ period began to tag the PDH leaving an extension handle at 27203 which was the first of many BNF made today. The probe higher continued as BNF tagged the 1.5 IB range extension of 27278 in the ‘F’ period after which it left the second extension handle at 27288 as the ‘G’ period made a big move upside completing the 2 IB extension making a high of 26365 which turned out to be the third extension handle for the day as the auction tagged 27440 in the ‘H’ period around which the auction then made a small balance in the next 2 periods before resuming the trend up in the ‘K’ period as it left yet another extension handle at 27486 to make highs of 27598 and continued the probe higher to tag 27674 in the ‘L’ period even pulling up the dPOC higher to 27638 around which BNF finally closed giving a 600+ point Trend Day which started with an OL and closed at the other extreme.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction In Range plus Drive Up (on low volumes)
• The day type was a Trend Day – Up
• Largest volume was traded at 27638 F
• Vwap of the session was at 27380 with volumes at 24 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 27674-27053 for a range of 621 points
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27288 on 27/02 and tagged the 1 ATR move down at 27021.The auction got above this FA today and tagged the 1 ATR move up at 27578. The 2 ATR move up comes to 27868.
• The Trend Day VWAP of 05/03 of 27380 will be important level for the series.
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27716 on 23/1 and completed the 2 ATR move down hence is now strong resistance
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones ( volume profile) are at 27270-27638-27673

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF needs to sustain above 27638 at open for a move to 27703-716 and 27745
b) Staying below 27638, the auction can tag 27580 & 27486
c) Above 27745, BNF can probe higher to levels of 27798 & 27840-868
d) Below 27486, we have 2 important support zones first at 27440 & then at 27390-350
e) BNF sustaining above 27870 can move higher to the 27919-930 and 27975
f) If 27350 is taken out, then can expect 27288 & 27230-203 on BNF

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