Monthly charts (February 2021) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot –  14529 [ 15432 / 13662 ]

Monthly Profile (February 2021)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘Value for the month was completely higher at 14098-14570-14644 but the close has been way away from the Value with an extension handle at 13902 along with a spike from 13728 to 13597 which would be on watch at the start of the new month with 13528 being the important support level.

Nifty rejected previous month’s spike close and made a blockbuster start to February giving a 675 point salute to the Budget on the first day and opened with a 200 point gap up on 02nd Feb continuing to trend higher for the first part of the month as it kept making new ATHs till the time it hit 15432 on 16th Feb in the ‘A’ period which marked the end of the upside probe for the month. The auction then trended lower for the next 4 days with the help of a Double Distribution (DD) Day Down on 18th Feb where it left a selling tail from 15199 to 15170 and went on to make a low of 14635 on 22nd Feb marking the end of this leg down with a Trend Day. However, the inventory seemed to have gone too short and this led to a short covering rally over the next 3 days as Nifty went on to test the 18th Feb DD singles of 15170 to 15199 on 25th Feb but got rejected at 15176 as it confirmed a multi-day FA (Failed Auction) with a big gap down open of more than 200 points on the last day of the month and fell by another 450 points closing the month just the way it had started with a huge range. The monthly profile looks like a composite ‘p’ shape with a big buying tail from 13662 to 14467 with Value completely higher at 14658-15115-15302 and the negation of this buying singles in the coming month could lead to a test of the monthly VPOCs of 13528 and 12862 in the coming months whereas on the upside, Nifty would need to find fresh demand above this month’s POC of 15115.

Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of February on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 14893 spot and the POC is at 15115
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 15174 F.

The VWAP of the January 2021 series is at 14288 spot and the POC is at 14569
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 13809 F.

The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 13528 spot and the POC is at 13528
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 14007 F.

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 12554 spot and the POC is at 12862
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 12974 F.

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 11793 spot and the POC is at 11897
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 11665 F.

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 11320 spot and the POC is at 11560
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 10830 F.


BankNifty Spot –  34803 [ 37708 / 30906 ]

Monthly Profile (February 2021)

Previous month’s report ended with this ‘Value for the month was completely higher at 31110-32062-32610 but the close has been away from the Value so the PLR for the coming month would be to the downside with the buying tail of 30165 to 29687 on the monthly profile being the zone to watch’

BankNifty negated previous month’s weak close with a 400+ point gap up on 01st Feb after which it not only went on to swipe through previous month’s Value but recorded new ATH of 33305 leaving a montrous Trend Day up of 2399 points. This auction continued to probe higher in the first week and this ultra bullish start to the month was further aided by a daily FA at 34239 on 04th Feb and an extension handle at 34591 as BankNifty went on to hit new highs of 36615 on 05th Feb. This 6000+ point rally from the Jan close in just a week needed some cooling off as the second week of Feb saw a balance being formed in a relatively narrow range of just 1049 points with the weekly POC at 36015. The third week of Feb saw the upmove being resumed with a Trend Day as the auction made new ATH of 37450 on 15th Feb and continued this imbalance at open the next day where it hit 37708 but left a selling tail in the Initial Balance marking the end of the upmove for the month. BankNifty then probed lower for the next 5 sessions as it made a low of 34976 on 23rd Feb where it left a Neutral Day with a prominent POC at 35189 indicating that the sellers were getting exhausted and gave an initiative move away from this POC on the upside on 24th Feb which resulted in a short covering rally to 37232 in the ‘A’ period on 25th Feb but similar to the action on 16th Feb marked the end of the upside probe as it made a slow One Time Frame probe lower for the rest of the day and opened with a huge gap down of 742 points on 26th Feb where it closed the month with a Trend Day Down while making a low of 34659. The monthly profile has a long buying tail from 34011 to 30906 with an extension handle at 33305 which would be the references on the downside for the coming month below the immediate zone of 34591 to 34238 and on the upside, we have the Value for this month at 35010-35820-37350 which was completely higher with the immediate selling extension handle at 35373.

Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of February on MPLite as per above analysis

Monthly Zones:

The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 35530 spot and the POC is at 35820
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 36719 F.

The VWAP of the January 2021 series is at 31597 spot and the POC is at 32062
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 30445 F.

The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 30270 spot and the POC is at 30766
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 31389 F.

The VWAP of the November 2020 series is at 28103 spot and the POC is at 29565
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 29629 F.

The VWAP of the October 2020 series is at 23740 spot and the POC is at 24468
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 24110 F.

The VWAP of the September 2020 series is at 22246 spot and the POC is at 22405
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 20490 F.