Nifty Spot – 11118 [ 11982 / 10999 ]
Monthly Profile (July)
Last month’s report ended with this ‘Nifty has made a nice balanced profile for the month with Value being inside previous month’s Value so looks set to give a trending move in July but needs to give a move away from this month’s Value of 11664-11824-11920’.
Nifty began this month on a strong note as it gave a gap up above previous month’s POC (mPOC) of 11824 to trend higher for most part of the first week as it scaled above the mVAH of 11920 and went on to make a high of 11982 at open on 5th July but completely retraced the upmove of the entire week giving a trend day down as it closed below the mPOC confirming a FA (Failed Auction) on the monthly time frame which was a very bearish scenario. The second week started with a gap lower plus an OH (Open=High) start at 11772 after which it gave a big drive lower and went on make a low of 11532 leaving back to back Trend Days Down which is a very rare scenario but then that is the power of a FA on a higher time frame. Nifty continued to trend lower making new lows of 11461 on 9th July where it confirmed a FA on a daily time frame after which it gave a slow trending move higher over the next 6 trading days tagging the 1 ATR move of 11586 and almost hitting the 2 ATR move of 11711 as it made highs of 11707 on 17th July. Range & Value both were contracting in this move higher which indicated that it was just a bounce and with the objective of the daily FA been met, the auction began the next leg lower for the month giving the third trend day down in 11 sessions on 19th July as Nifty made a low of 11402 almost tagging the 1 ATR objective of 11388 from the monthly FA and closing the week around the lows indicating that the probe down is still not over. The next week started with yet another OH start at 11408 as Nifty continued the trend lower and left a new pull back high of 11361 on 25th July before making lower lows till the 31st July as it tagged 10999 before closing at 11118 to give a 982 point range for the month and looks all set to tag the 2 ATR move down of 10794 from the monthly FA in the coming month. The monthly profile is that of a Triple Distrubution Trend Down with extension handles at 11797 & 11461 and with Value at 11208-11576-11768.
Monthly Zones:
The vwap of the July series is at 11547 spot and the POC is at 11576
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 11315 F.
The vwap of the June series is at 11833 spot and the POC is at 11714
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 11915 F.
The vwap of the May series is at 11613 spot and the POC is at 11696
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 11980 F.
The vwap of the April series is at 11641 spot and the POC is at 11656
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 11878 F.
The vwap of the March series is at 11327 spot and the POC is at 11448
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 11673 F.
The vwap of the February series is at 10830 spot and the POC is at 10856
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 10860 F.
BankNifty Spot – 28876 [ 31661 / 28529 ]
Monthly Profile (July)
BankNifty opened the month with a gap up and probed higher for the first week as it scaled above the mVAH of 31320 to make highs of 31661 on 5th July forming higher Value on the weekly profile too with a close above the weekly HVN of 31350. The auction then completely changed nature on 8th July as it gave a gap down on the weekly with a Open Test Drive rejecting that HVN of 31350 and went on to leave a Trend Day lower falling by more than 800 points as it left an extension handle at 31105 thereby confirming a FA on the monthly time frame at 31661 with a 1 ATR target of 29845. BankNify formed a ‘b’ shape profile for the week after making a swing low of 30346 on 9th July as it gave a small bounce over the next 4 days to leave a pull back high at 30871 on Friday, 12th July and followed it with a Open Drive lower on 15th July which tagged the swing low of 30346 but was not able to close below it leading to a balance being formed for the next 3 days as the auction left a new pull back high of 30800 on 17th July and went on to give another 800 pointer day on 19th July as it gave an Open Drive down to leave the second Trend Day Down for the month along with another monthly extension handle at 30334 as it made lows of 29705 to complete the 1 ATR objective of the monthly FA. The auction continued this weakness into the next week as it opened lower & gave a drive down making new monthly lows for the first 3 days as it tagged 28871 on 24th July completing a huge 1900 point move down in 5 trading sessions which led to a small retracement over the next 3 days as BankNifty made a big gap up of more than 250 points to start the last week of the month as it hit 29593 at open on 29th July but the monthly trend took over the control and not only negated the gap but went on to to hit new lows for the month on the remaining 2 days as it hit 28529 on the 31st of July giving a huge 3131 point range for the month courtesy that monthly FA of 31661 which has the 2 ATR objective at 28029 which could get hit in the next month. The monthly profile like in Nifty is a Triple Distribution Trend Down one but with the 2 tails in between the 3 distributions more defined with the lower singles from 29593 to 30334 & the upper one at 30871 to 31105. The monthly Value is 29320-30560-31660
Monthly Zones:
The vwap of the July series is at 30425 spot and the POC is at 30560
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 29250 F.
The vwap of the June series is at 30914 spot and the POC is at 30961
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 31400 F.
The vwap of the May series is at 30211 spot and the POC is at 28940
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 31644 F.
The vwap of the April series is at 30037 spot and the POC is at 29850
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 29760 F.
The vwap of the March series is at 29061 spot and the POC is at 29778
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 30500 F.
The vwap of the February series is at 27042 spot and the POC is at 26978
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 26965 F.