We had an interesting expiry yesterday with tables turning in the closing hours of the series and the last 1 session + 1 hour ( including today) causing a 200 point move in the Nifty against the prevailing trend.
It started off as a long liquidation from the very first day of the series and ended being a series dominated by shorts.
Fii data from yesterday however showed 229013 shorts covered in index futures yesterday and 6345 the day before on the spike down.
Broadly speaking as we are in the first few hours of the new series, we are seeing a situation which shows that the shorts are not in the system and the longs have moved out much earlier in the month and even some yesterday.
There were 92212 longs covered yesterday which came in after the 12th of June.
Let's look at the profile picture to see where we go from here :
Today's gap up covers another gap left on FED day ( morning after).
What we are seeing is a Low volume pocket between 5720 and 5785.
5785 July and above is the bottom of a balance zone from 17th to the 20th of June.
In our view the market will try to auction the low volume zone as long as price stays below the 5785 print.
Once it moves above that, a 100 point rise is not to be ruled out.