Last week’s expiry trade was near the series vwap and the 1st day of the August series saw a 100 point move above this vwap placed at 8446 spot. The dip below 8450 spot early Monday morning saw the buyers from 8320 supporting the index on dips. We are now back to a positive outlook on the index again with 8420 spot as support into the coming weeks.
Last week 8455 broke in the first 30 minutes of trade and we were forced to revise the weekly view at Monday close. That post is up for review here – http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-27-july-31-july15/
The coming week has RBI announcement in it. Whilst we do not like to look much at news as market making activities, sometimes the volumes can create inventory imbalance which can change or make a new trend. So caution is advised as we move into that event.
The charts still project 8605 point mentioned last week as a small hurdle on the way to 8750 spot. So the agenda for the week would be to buy all dips to 8490 early in the week for a play back to 8600 and 8650.
We maintain 8420 as major support going forward. The monthly chart posted above of July shows value established higher reinforcing that bullish bias for August.
For the week we see 8490- 8610 kind of an oscillating range with a break above 8610 giving an 100 point move to 8704 and a move below 8490 finding support at 8455 and 8420.
The monthly chart of BN above shows Apr, May, June having a similar value area ( green horiz. lines) and July finishing near the POC of a higher balance.The setup is clearly 19300- 18200 as has been for the past 4 months.
We see the upmove of the last 2 days running into some supply near 18930 which has the LVN of last week.
Support lower is again at 18600 and at 18465 spot which is the VAH of the week gone by.
Below 18465 the index runs a risk of seeing 18195 lows again.
Last week’s POC was at 19070 and a move above this POC would ensure 19274 spot visited.