In the expiry week to come, September series vwap of 7818 spot and the failed auction point of 7850 F serve as a huge buying support and a good chance for OrderFlow sellers stuck from 7850- 7900 levels pre-FED to cover. Last week’s auction was positive with buyers controlling the auction and keeping it above 7660 spot easily.
Last week’s post up for review here – http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-14-sept-18-sept15/
Nifty spot TPO:
The Monday of the week gone by was a trend up which reversed the entire auction of the previous friday and had strong buyers showing up below 7800 levels. Tuesday reversed again from the 2 week old supply zone of 7850 spot but again nearer to the close on Tuesday our OrderFlow charts picked up aggressive buying. Wednesday was a consolidation day, but the dip to 7850 early in the session saw buyers stepping up for the first time in many sessions. However late on Wednesday nearer to the close, the order flow picked up sellers from 7900 levels. Friday’s gap up saw initially buyers but again strong sellers emerged from 8020 levels to show a reversal as the gains of the open were lost by close.
The Overall order flow picture of the week showed us good buyers below 7800 and up to 7850, sellers closer to 7900 and huge selling above 8000 on the gap up day.
Into expiry week, we watch the failed auction of 7852 F and the POC of the week gone by at 7830 as well as the developing series vwap of 7818 to show support. We feel the short term sellers will use the dip to cover their short positions. This dip will be well and truly confirmed only if we are below 7935 as of Monday.
However, expiry week could be contained within the 8065- 7810 price band of 250 points.
Our bias into the week will be positive and we will look to buy the dip early in the week with stops below 7780 spot for 8065 and a possible run up to 8180 either on expiry day or the week to come.
However, if 7780 breaks the market risks a drop to 7580 levels again.
BankNifty TPO chart:
Off the lows, the BN has been a faster mover being faster than the Nifty to touch the highs of the emerging 4-week balance as seen in the TPO chart above. However just like the Nifty, it saw long liquidation even some selling as it moved into the higher prices.
In BN, the sept series developing vwap is 16657 currently.
Support in the week is at the 17070- 17120 price band. This region should be used by shorts in the system to cover their short positions.
We see resistance at the same 17770 zone and further up at 18130.
We have used quantitative analysis and the principles of Auction market Theory to arrive at our levels. For running updates of the daily and weekly moves and to join our community visit – Vtrender Trading Room