In last week’s report – “Friday was the first session since 8220- 8260 broke that we had an establishment of a balance. It would mean a pause in the downward momentum for now but the possibility of sellers coming back at higher levels remains”.
We got a sideways profile but also an indication that a fierce trend type move is about to resume again. The coming week is expiry and a higher time frame in action. As we do always, our eyes would be on the developing vwap of November series at 7923 spot and 17110 spot to confirm a trend for December.
Last week’s report can be assessed here: http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-16-nov-20-nov15/. We have updated a monthly chart and view in that post and we will keep going back to it in the next 2 weeks.
Nifty TPO charts:
On Monday, we had a trend day and the spot shot up to the weekly resistance of 7840/55 but closed below it. Tuesday we formed a balance holding the trend day POC and vwap. On Wednesday imbalance returned and the market dropped to meet the buyers and the lows of Monday ( spot did not make a low). Thursday’s gap up created another trend day back upto 7855 in a spike. On Friday, we spiked midday above 7855 but sellers returned from 7906 and closed the market at 7855 again.
The weekly profile gives us the first sideways value in 4 weeks with a prominent POC at 7830.
In the upcoming expiry week we watch the developing vwap at 7925 spot which is in line with the second layer of supply at 7920/40 mentioned in last week’s report. We believe that if this is crossed the market can move to 8038 and 8090 levels during the week.
Support is at weekly poc of 7830 and at 7785 weekly VAL. The Nifty should trend down strongly and mostly meet 772 0 and 7585 if this POC and VAL of the weekly TF is broken
BankNifty TPO charts:
The BanakNifty looks bound between 2 excesses noted on the charts at 17320 and at 16740.
We also note the vwaps of the last 2 series of September and October to be at 16770 and 17255.
The vwap for the series of November is also at 17110.
In view of this we would tend to think that BN remains rangebound in the shortened expiry week.
We will use 16700 and 17400 as reference levels for the sideways auction.