Nifty/ BN Weekly View (spot) for 29 Feb- 04 Mar’16

We finished settlement near the lows of the month and old business in the form of the writers at 7000 PE were able to withstand the selling pressure and hold off the bears that day. The coming week has the budget session in it. Whilst we are big believers in the charts carrying all the information in it, the fact remains that major events such as the Budget or the RBI or the FED carry with it the possibility of triggering large-scale inventory change and the possibility of extremely longer term players changing their outlook. This may not be visible immediately during the session but can be witnessed through the week. Hence as shorter term players, It is up to us to remain nimble and follow the move of the market with capital preservation being the theme. The budget is only a one-day event. The market, however, stays open with it’s opportunities through the yearN_Weekly



To summarise the above chart:


  1. We are in the same range for the past two weeks roughly 7220- 6970
  2. The vwap of the Feb series is at 7230 and hence resistance
  3. above 7125 spot in the coming week, we could have a 100 point move to this vwap of 7230
  4. If breaks above the 7230 vwap we have a run up to 7440 and even 7530 with stops below 7120
  5. Below 6930 the trend confirms down to 6830 and 6765


No particular order for the above 5 points. Allow price to lead.






To summarise the above chart:


  1. The BN broke away from a 3-week balance, trended lower and then formed a balance again
  2. Last week it made an attempt to move away from this new balance in last 3 sessions but did not see new selling
  3. The region around 14100 is our confirmation that BN is securely back in the balance and wants to move to 14440 plus for 340pt
  4. If it stays above 14500 roughly can run up to 15110 also – a further move of 600 points
  5. Below the POC of 13700- 13750 it indicates a move down to the support of 13400-13475.


Again no particular order and no bias on the charts as we are in a balance zone with triggers awaiting a move-out.