Regular readers of this blog may be familiar with a calculation I make on Nifty expiry, every expiry day. If you are not familiar then I suggest you read this post right here before going further.
Well Manu had requested for a projection as to how nifty would end up tomorrow.
Based on the excel calculations in the post above the range works out to 4991 on the higher side and 4825 on the lower side.
Now for the open interest tables :
It’s self expanatory you can see a clear movement in the smart money towards the 5000 strike.
I have also put up the open Interst for the month of June just to back up the claim.
So are we looking at an expiry closer towards 5000 in the range 4880-4995.
Well that’s what the charts above seem to tell. They have been right for the past three months, off by only 5-15 points.
So an expiry at 4980-4995 is predicted.
Just when I thought I’ll close the post, I got a hunch about checking the above data through market profile.
So here goes :
The blue lines represent the value area of the month.
The chart is a 60 min profile chart of the Nifty Future for the May Expiry starting from the friday of last month up upto today.
As you can see the largest volume has occured at 5004 for this expiry.
I’m going to shut right here and be back tomorrow with the same chart.
Something very interesting just happened.
All the best for tomorrow.
Shai.
