We had an interesting week in the markets and the last two days were spent on consolidation in the upper end of the profile after the big trend day on 1st of March.
In many ways the big trend day was a game changer and the structure still holds value upwards as long as the region of 5470-82 is protected in the short term.
But let’s step away from the short term and let’s see what the markets are doing over the mid-term with probabilities for the long term scenario.
Here is a weekly chart of the Nifty spot.
It’s a weekly bar chart stretching back to 2250 levels, but for purpose of clarity I have chosen to highlight only the last one year of bars.
If you have been following the markets closely, you would have noted the markets coming back to and falling off from this region where we have closed yesterday.
On a monthly time frame, this area ( point 1) is the high value zone for the entire up move from 2252 to 6338 and there is good reason to believe that if we close march series above this level we will be back on our ways to previous highs and maybe more.
Also around this zone is the developing weekly value ( point 2 at 5524) for the downtrend which has been in place from November last year.
So for the medium term, if we cross these levels (5550) , it should bring 5900 ( point 4) eventually.
Let’s turn to the short term profile.
We’ll look at the march future.
The profile chart shows :
a) a seller at the top near 5610 levels. This seller on 18th Feb at the same level had dropped the market to 5230 by the 25th ( one week)
b) short term support is 5472-93 below which we will see 5377/ 5340.
c) If the single print and 5646 is taken out, this market can race upto 5805 in no time.