End of January, at the close of the last series the Markets came down heavily on the Long positions then held in January and in particular the 6200 put writers.
There was also an sharp buildup in Open Interest for the FEB series , then just starting, in Both NF and BNF.
As we start a new series in March, the charts are not showing the same kind of Open Interest built.
We spoke through the Month of FEB on how the short interest was built in BNF in the 10450-10550 zone.
In March we are starting the series with a 25% lower Open Interest compared to the month of FEB.
This means lesser shorts in BNF this series and a probable base as the previous shorting place of FEB as price has scaled above it.
In NF too we are seeing a 14% lower Open Interest in March as those shorts who had entered below 6140 spot are out of the system.
Again the two lines show less shorts in the system in march.
This Pie chart above is the total holding of all players in Both NF and BNF as well as CNXIT which is negligible.
FII’s held 63.6% of Longs in the Index Futures at the close on Friday and retail were holding the Maximum shorts.
At the Peak of the FEB fall when the Index Future was closing near 6005 that percentage had dipped to 48.3 %
However when NF was over 6350 last time, the percentage of longs held was in the region of 80%.
Here are some Option charts where writers have written positions in Nifty at 6000 PE/ 6100 PE and at 6300 CE and 6400 CE.
6200 PE and 6300 CE are nearly equal in terms of Open Interest and the key to what’s in store in the earlier part of the series.
It’s also nearly equal in Open Interest at 10500 and 11000 ce and should be the two strikes to watch as the BNF consolidates the recent gains.