OrderFlow charts and Notes 01/12

Bnf_Of_10 Bnf_Vol_At_Price_1 Nf_Of_10 Nf_Vol_At_Price_1

 

 

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General Chat Transcript

 

Room Name: Vtrender
Date and Time: December 01, 2014 09:23:30[08:55]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:55]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-1st-dec/
[08:55]   Porus : GM
[08:55]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-2811/
[08:55]   r m : NF Hypo1 Below 8635➜8611-8610➜8575 SL 8669 Hypo2 Above 8647➜8668 SL 8629 DEC Future levels
[08:56]   r m : BNF Hypo1 Below 18550➜18507➜18408 SL18620 Hypo2 Above 18650➜18735➜18764 SL 18608 DEC Fut levels
[08:58]   Shai : Gm all
[09:06]   Ravi : gm shai …rm
[09:06]   r m : FII index future shorts down to 5% http://screencast.com/t/5EC12djF5Y
[09:06]   r m : Hi Ravi
[09:08]   Ravi V P : GM
[09:10]   Ravi V P : if any link with file is being uploaded , email ID is required
[09:10]   Ravi V P : loading weblink is easy with copy and paste here
[09:13]   Shai : Focus is on RBI tom
[09:14]   Shai : Today could be speculation and mostly locals at play
[09:14]   Shai : global focus this morning is on commos
[09:14]   Ravi V P : 8668 T opening
[09:14]   Shai : gold and crude tumbling for diff reasons
[09:20]   Shai : open is in range nd value
[09:20]   Shai : suggests continuation of friday
[09:20]   Shai : friday’s second half auction that is – which was different from the early morning
[09:27]   Shai : auction is a little wild within a 20 point range in NF so far
[09:28]   Shai : locals surely but unsure locals
[09:29]   Assortz : Gm Shai..Could you pls recheck SL of Hypo NF levels..SL are ovelapping respectively with entries
[09:30]   Shai : ooops is is 8649
[09:30]   Shai : thanks for bringing it up
[09:31]   Ravi V P : 8649?
[09:31]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-1st-dec/
[09:31]   Shai : updated
[09:32]   Shai : hypo1 in play now- sl of 8649
[09:32]   Shai : yes 8649 was the IB high est on friday
[09:39]   Shai : Just for the info of our team here on the new SEBI rules on research analysts- I have been told by our legal that we are above board as we are purely index plays . However clarity is being sought on the same and will update here. As far as the law is concerned we will not do anything which violates it
[09:40]   Chiranthan : Isn’t this a private forum?
[09:40]   Shai : yes – besides we are a password protected group
[09:41]   Chiranthan : no very few charts on twitter today!
[09:41]   Ravi V P : sebi targets TV news analysts primarily and some looters thru fake sms
[09:41]   Shai : 18764 in BNF
[09:42]   Shai : that 627 to 772 move was very quick
[09:43]   Shai : if 8611 breaks then only 8575 in play
[09:43]   Shai : expecting buyers to show up as we approach 8611
[09:48]   Porus : Shai, Is there a bnf trade if 18682 breaks?
[09:50]   Shai : Porus pull back low was 18643
[09:50]   Shai : so aggressive shorts would come only below that number
[10:04]   Shai : exp tom for RBI is a 25bps repo rate cut
[10:05]   Shai : back in Jan they had hiked it by 25 – so if hey do it we are back to last dec levels on repo
[10:05]   Shai : How does it affect the index?
[10:06]   Shai : well we have run up enough in that expectation
[10:07]   Amit J : no expectations are no cut
[10:07]   Amit J : once cut they cant hike.
[10:08]   Shai : ok
[10:08]   Shai : true
[10:10]   Amit J : reuters chat just did poll. 26 yes and 56 No
[10:10]   Porus : Shai, can you pls adjust the 30 min chart so taht the ‘responsive buyers’ caption is visible?
[10:10]   Amit J : so expectations is still no cut
[10:11]   Shai : Porus that will come and go as volumes there change
[10:11]   Shai : vaild only for those 5 -10 points
[10:11]   Shai : at the time
[10:12]   Shai : Yes Amit I read that
[10:12]   Amit J : shai u are on reuters chat?
[10:12]   Shai : But gen talk in the market is that if Rajan does not deliver he gets kicked up to head BRICS 🙂
[10:12]   Shai : No Amit- not there
[10:13]   r m : lol
[10:13]   r m : I think Rajan will love to be kicked up 🙂
[10:14]   Amit J : no nothing will happen to him whether he cuts or not
[10:15]   Shai : cool
[10:15]   Shai : He is needed
[10:15]   r m : I think Modi will hand pick the BRIC bank’s head, unlikely to pick Rajan for that job
[10:16]   r m : They need an institution builder for that new post
[10:17]   Porus : If no rate cut, the fall should be hard? What with US and Eurpoean indices losing steam
[10:18]   Shai : Porus max one way climb is 935- 950 points
[10:18]   Shai : from 5110
[10:19]   Shai : so upside may be capped from a TA point
[10:19]   Shai : “. In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. Conversely the Nifty has run up straight 2 times for 936 and 925 points . The upmove from 7723 is now 893 points.”
[10:21]   Shai : will upload pic in a min
[10:27]   Shai : price time move- http://screencast.com/t/hacdPeslRh8W
[11:01]   Porus : NF H2 in play?
[11:02]   r m : yes
[11:03]   Ravi V P : what is h2?
[11:03]   r m : Hypo2
[11:03]   r m : (08:56) r m:BNF Hypo1 Below 18550➜18507➜18408 SL18620 Hypo2 Above 18650➜18735➜18764 SL 18608 DEC Fut levels
[11:03]   r m : oops
[11:03]   r m : (08:55) r m:NF Hypo1 Below 8635➜8611-8610➜8575 SL 8669 Hypo2 Above 8647➜8668 SL 8629 DEC Future levels
[11:15]   Shai : Not a lot of interest abv IBH
[11:16]   Shai : volumes have shrunk
[11:16]   Shai : the move up from 8617 had buy volumes though
[11:17]   Shai : can exit hypo 2 at near cost here and wait out the market
[11:17]   Porus : Delta is good though
[11:21]   Shai : yes and vwap will be watched by the buyers from 8617
[11:21]   Shai : their stps will be just under 8635
[11:22]   Shai : did mention 8620 and 8580 spot as imp on friday
[11:22]   Shai : both important into tom for bias
[11:24]   Shai : Nov to DEC Fii rollover is again onnthe long side like oct-nov
[11:24]   Shai : plus they added 65417 new index longs on friday
[11:27]   Porus : Asian markets seem to be closed today.
[11:29]   Shai : Forgot to update a small change in amt charts this morning- the numbers on that chart are now volumes calculated in multiples of 25 instead of 1 previously (vol now instead of trades done)
[11:32]   Shai : vwap NF
[11:36]   Ravi V P : bnf crossing
[11:39]   Porus : IT index hits 12000
[11:39]   Shai : putting pressure on BN
[11:43]   Ravi V P : nf short as per your msg at 8635
[11:44]   Shai : yes likely to do 8617 again
[11:44]   Shai : also IB band trade
[11:45]   Chiranthan : sl IB high?
[11:45]   Shai : 8649
[11:45]   Chiranthan : ok
[11:57]   Shai : vol surge again at 8624
[11:58]   Shai : this looks like a market which will close the day at 8636 today
[12:10]   Ravi V P : 8500 pe:ce oi is 1 and 8600 PCR OI is 0.625. Has to come down
[12:30]   Janak : chances of 655/600 from here shai?
[12:32]   Rahul G : is tht on Bn or nifty janak
[12:37]   Janak : bn
[12:55]   Janak : 666
[13:01]   Amit J : shai any view on rcom and indiacem
[13:05]   Shai : 8621
[13:05]   Shai : sure
[13:05]   Shai : IBlow 8616
[13:06]   Porus : Shai, if 8611 breaks , still targeting 8575?
[13:07]   Shai : reduce shorts if holding or trail upto 8626
[13:07]   Shai : Yes Porus
[13:09]   Shai : rcom weak below 101 can see upto 95.5 if it stays below
[13:09]   Shai : abv 101 can rise to 103.9 and 106 this week
[13:10]   Shai : NF again vol surge at lows
[13:13]   Shai : indiacem on a 30 min clse abv 93.5 should move to 95.5-96.2
[13:13]   Shai : high probability that the 91.4 low will hold and we revisist 104 in next few sessions
[13:14]   Shai : selling can come bac cloer to 104
[13:14]   Amit J : thanks
[13:15]   Shai : welcome
[13:16]   Shai : those high vol buyers near 8618 F are making a stand
[13:16]   Shai : remember 8350 of last week
[13:16]   Shai : last month actually **
[13:16]   Porus : So safer trade would be to buy at 8618?
[13:17]   Shai : IBL is nt breaking
[13:17]   Shai : today’s market is locals at play so 20 point enuff
[13:18]   Shai : much of the same view as we move into afternoon session
[13:18]   Shai : (09:43) Shai :expecting buyers to show up as we approach 8611
[13:18]   Shai : (09:50) Shai : pull back low was 18643. (09:50) Shai :so aggressive shorts would come only below that number
[13:19]   Shai : the only prob is we may not get new buying again abv 8649
[13:22]   Shai : more likely we close around 8635 as we wait out RBI tom
[13:22]   Shai : would advise against new positions now
[13:48]   Janak : does anyone know a sure 15 pts trade here? shai has given a hint already
[13:48]   Janak : quiz time
[13:49]   Ravi V P : buy at 8618 with sl of 8609 for T of 8636
[13:49]   Janak : (13:22) Shai :more likely we close around 8635 as we wait out RBI tom
[13:49]   Janak : yes ravi
[13:56]   Ravi V P : book at 8636
[13:56]   Janak : 8640 is also fine i guess
[13:58]   Ravi V P : aim for high and exit for low
[14:10]   Janak : rm saab aur aap sab dosto ke liye ye song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9yT6gSY-pg&index=4&list=PL9bw4S5ePsEF9KGA_ZxwoNzjFE7yGL4fH
[14:13]   Shai : BNF in a normal day
[14:13]   Shai : NF is neutral with 2 side extensions
[14:14]   Porus : 8609
[14:16]   Shai : in the amt chart watch the amount of red green at hypo levels
[14:16]   Shai : 32450 at 8611 an lots more green in the next bar
[14:17]   Shai : shows buyer wanting to fight at lows
[14:22]   Shai : that buyer has to take it abv IBL / dval to be safe
[14:22]   Janak : shai can do 725/55 again?
[14:22]   Shai : yes 665- 713 channel working all day
[14:26]   Porus : Shai, what is the colour coding in the amt chart – green, red, black n blue?
[14:28]   Shai : green is aggressive buying at mkt
[14:28]   Shai : red is selling
[14:28]   Shai : blue is weak volumes
[14:29]   Shai : buyers under pressure now
[14:30]   Shai : and back is the vol which got matched up almost 1: 1 diagnally across
[14:31]   Shai : like 20250 x 27600 or 14850 x 15050 in the NF chart
[14:32]   Shai : 8602 again buyer
[14:36]   Shai : Moody’s : https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Japan-to-A1-from-Aa3-outlook-stable–PR_313476
[14:37]   Porus : Will the downgrade impact our market?
[14:37]   Shai : all those downgrades of the past 2 years have given highe rprices 🙂
[14:37]   Shai : No we are focussed on RBI now
[14:50]   Shai : Agg buy at 8602 for 8630 sl of 8589
[14:57]   Mandar : looks like moody to rescue Rajan. what a timing 🙂
[15:00]   Shai : That downgrade was warned earlier actually and may not be a shock event
[15:08]   Shai : NF not going to vwap
[15:08]   Shai : looking like a neutral extreme now
[15:09]   Chiranthan : exit longs nf?
[15:09]   Shai : No keep slo of 8589 in system
[15:09]   Chiranthan : ok
[15:09]   Shai : will give it a few more mins
[15:15]   Ravi V P : BN Long and NF short as per original suppositions are perefect
[15:17]   Shai : we wre trading for a neutral center but we are gtting a neutral extreme in NF
[15:18]   Shai : High risk trade with a 8650 ce would be to go long for a pre RBI move to 8630 – 8640 with sl of 8574
[15:18]   Shai : has to be cleared pre RBI though
[15:19]   Shai : this neutral extreme does not look like it will follow down tom
[15:19]   Shai : 8575 is the buyer of friday
[15:20]   Shai : and have all those longs in index F which RM showed in the morning
[15:27]   Shai : delta still suggesting lows being bought
[15:27]   Shai : typical of a bull market 🙂
[15:28]   Shai : After watching the index rise 1000 points in 6 months every 100 point dip will be bought 🙂
[15:29]   r m : Bulls will be afraid only when Kris begins buying PEs 🙂
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Shai : 🙂
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice eve
[15:30]   Porus : bye