OrderFlow charts and Notes 04/03/15

[08:56]   Shai : GM all
[08:56]   Porus : GM Shai and all
[08:57]   Shai : RBI cuts rates by 25 bps to 7.5% from 7.75%
[08:59]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[09:00]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-4th-march/
[09:00]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-030315/
[09:00]   r m : Nifty MAR Futures Key Reference Area 9058 Hypo1 above 9058➜9090➜9122 SL 9034 Hypo2 below 9034➜9006➜8978➜8944 SL 9058
[09:00]   r m : Banknifty MAR Futures KRA 20064 Hypo1 above 20064➜20199➜20255➜20443-496 SL 20010 Hypo2 below 19955➜19884➜19768➜19714 SL 20066
[09:02]   r m : That monitory committee proposal has made Rajan rather active 🙂
[09:03]   Rav : RBI cuts RR to 7.5%
[09:04]   Shai : quick update on the hypo levels : 9122 will be 1st supp for intra on a gap up and 9211 is Objective if we stay abv 9122 all day
[09:04]   Shai : In BNF watch 20607- 20687 as support for a gap up- Objective of the rise is 20931/ 21331 by tom
[09:05]   Shai : all F levels
[09:06]   Shai : Also through the chart look for signs of long liquidation in 1st 30 mins
[09:11]   Tejpreet : GM All.
[09:12]   Shai : some 9000 ce and 9100 ce was reducing in Last 30 mins
[09:13]   r m : FII’s have been piling up long index futures all these days in the new series
[09:13]   Shai : yes trend players win on the gap up
[09:14]   Shai : BNF pre open is 3% plus
[09:20]   Shai : 1st auction down from 20610
[09:20]   Shai : 20443 now supp
[09:21]   Shai : longs cashing out on the RR gift
[09:21]   r m : 🙂
[09:25]   Shai : looks like a 20443- 20687 F morning in BNF
[09:25]   Rav : SC and LL first 5 min
[09:26]   Shai : Not staying abv vwap means longs are not driving
[09:27]   Shai : BN sot still within the Jan 30 profile
[09:27]   Shai : spot*
[09:28]   Shai : That carnage on that 1 day of Jan 30 in BN impacted it for a month
[09:28]   Amit J : shai your view on sbi for short
[09:29]   Amit J : pipavav def for long?
[09:30]   Shai : small hint of buying in BNF
[09:31]   Shai : sbin weak below 305 can drop to 296/ 287
[09:34]   Shai : pipavav waiting for vols to update
[09:34]   Shai : pipavav has been in news for that M&M play?
[09:34]   Shai : your eicher is in the news today @Amit
[09:34]   Shai : 🙂
[09:35]   Shai : NG ging for gap fill
[09:35]   Shai : sl of 9136 tgt 9063
[09:35]   Shai : NF*
[09:36]   Shai : Not styaing abv the critical pre open levels of 9122/ 20607
[09:37]   Navaneeth : GM all/shai bro
[09:38]   RK : Yesterday range was lower than average range in many stocks and even in NF/BNF..
[09:39]   Shai : Yes RK vix dropping
[09:39]   Shai : Market caught off guard today
[09:40]   RK : drifting down further may hit many SL of trend following systems due to PD lower range
[09:40]   Shai : Bulls taking an easy route and booking gains first up
[09:40]   Shai : pd?
[09:40]   RK : previous day
[09:40]   Shai : ok
[09:40]   RK : like pivot, Moving average study etc
[09:40]   r m : Now they will install a statue of “Nandi” opposite RBI 🙂
[09:41]   RK : lol
[09:41]   Shai : sl is 9136 for the gap fill trade
[09:41]   RK : charts gone Shai
[09:42]   Rav : SBI LBU buying seen heavi
[09:43]   Amit J : eicher i exited yesteday. worng exit
[09:50]   Rav : ITC 350.80
[09:51]   Vishal : shai view on tata steel
[09:55]   Shai : tata steel should do 360/ 362 sl of 349.8
[09:56]   Shai : I’m more bullish if it closes this week abv 362
[09:57]   RK : Tata steel stuck in a very narrow range making inside day for 3 days now
[09:58]   Shai : ITC good move abv 345
[09:58]   Shai : Rumors of it beig split in different verticals
[09:58]   Rav : 340pe is protecting ITC but huge ce oi is there till 400
[10:14]   Rav : max pain at 9000. 9100-9200ce SC set in
[10:18]   Shai : Not a lot of buying at the lows but gap is not closed at end of the hour
[10:19]   Shai : so we will have to cover shorts lower and buy abv 9140 now
[10:22]   Sharad : GM all
[10:24]   Tejpreet : Shai now that things are settled what would be a good lvl to enter BN.
[10:25]   Shai : intra ?
[10:25]   Tejpreet : YES
[10:25]   Shai : Intra longs over vwap only no
[10:25]   Shai : now*
[10:26]   Tejpreet : Mostly 21000 call.
[10:26]   Shai : My view for most of the settlement is on the weekly para
[10:27]   Shai : roughly 20584- 19736 spot
[10:27]   Shai : consolidation
[10:28]   Shai : Maintain NF on this : We believe the Profile will still probe a bit higher before creating a balance between 8950- 9150 F through most of March
[10:28]   Tejpreet : OK so play intra at VWAP and look for break of 20584- 19736 spot.
[10:28]   Shai : though after the unexpected event today did think about an intra jump to 9210
[10:29]   Shai : yes
[10:30]   Shai : Tha profile of Jan 30 was a “moving profile” and since short covering has set in BNf that needs to be probed throroughly
[10:31]   Tejpreet : Thanks Shai.
[10:33]   Shai : BNF aggressive trade is with sl at day low and add abv vwap tgt 20610
[10:33]   Shai : cmp 20436 – go wth 50% and add abv vwap
[10:34]   Shai : 20386 shows buyers coming back
[10:35]   Shai : check FP charts at 20392/ 20400
[10:35]   Shai : though smaller in Vols it is the same we saw yesterday at 19980
[10:35]   Shai : *like the same we **
[10:36]   Shai : BNF yesterday : http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/15_min_BNF_FP22.png
[10:41]   Shai : Exit NF shorts above 9129
[10:42]   Shai : Buy NF above 9136 with sl of 9119 tgt 9156/9170
[10:46]   Amit J : At present, PSU bank chiefs are paid one-fifth of their peers in private banks. Bank analysts say private bankers joining a PSU bank would be a positive development. “A lot of private bankers would want to join PSU banks because of their size, challenges and the opportunities they may get,” says Amit Jain, a senior analyst at Sunidhi Securities. “If a high-profile person joins a PSU, it could immediately improve the bank’s valuation based on the expectation that the bank’s efficiency will improve,” he added.
[10:50]   Rav : But How they will get hefty salary of 1-1/5th from PSU?
[10:50]   r m : also once the banker has worked with a PSU bank his markt value will go up multiple time
[10:51]   r m : I think this is what will pursuade them to work for PSUs
[10:51]   RK : Rav I personlally feel monetary income at stage become immaterial.I mean for the high profile people 🙂
[10:51]   RK : *at one stage
[10:51]   r m : yes
[10:52]   r m : also there is a bottleneck at the top in private banks
[10:52]   Rav : Many IAS officers were recruited in the past by BIG Corporates with huge salary. Vineet joined MBT ,now TM
[10:52]   RK : the presssure at top in private is kind of suffocating throughout life 🙂
[10:52]   Amit J : it was my interview in ET
[10:52]   r m : Congrats Amit 🙂
[10:53]   RK : Great Amit 🙂
[10:53]   RK : Wish you to take the headlines shortly 🙂
[10:53]   Tejpreet : Congrats Amit …we have a TV star in our group:)
[10:53]   Porus : Nice Amit.
[10:53]   Amit J : thanks
[10:53]   Shai : Great Amit. Cngrats 🙂
[10:55]   Amit J : thks
[10:55]   Rav : My Auntie works in leading PSU as Head and likely to be next Dy Gov But her salary is meagre 14 lacs whereas in Pvt, his friend gets 68 lacs!
[10:57]   Amit J : great Rav. name?
[10:57]   Rav : can not be disclosed for privy reason
[10:57]   Rav : Amit
[10:57]   Amit J : no issue
[10:57]   Rav : when she becomes, we all will know
[11:05]   Rav : 8800-8900pe writers added huge positions. 8980 is good level to buy
[11:06]   Rav : 9089 is good level to buy
[11:06]   r m : Thanks Rav
[11:09]   Rav : http://screencast.com/t/kfk0f6qAPL5
[11:12]   r m : Thanks Rav!
[11:12]   Rav : wc
[11:30]   Amit J : axis yesterdays low gone
[11:30]   Amit J : below shai level of 627
[11:33]   Shai : Cover NF shorts
[11:33]   Shai : BNF 20245 high of the rise before today
[11:34]   Shai : That 11.30- 11.45 algo has been showing up at the lows every day
[11:34]   Shai : and taking the market to highs at close
[11:35]   Shai : a 60 point sudden drop can come BNF
[11:35]   Shai : 20245 obj
[11:42]   Shai : Not a lot of buyers yet
[11:42]   Shai : BNF
[11:44]   Shai : 9000 pe is still lesser than 9000 ce in OI and we are 96 point up
[11:45]   Amit J : and they are old writers and also 8900 supoort missing in PE
[11:46]   Shai : 20252
[11:46]   Rav : 8800-9100 pe OI is 1 cr and ce is 96 lacs.
[11:46]   Shai : things get interesting here
[11:47]   Shai : at sake is a 300 point move
[11:47]   Rav : 21000-20500CE WRITING is heavy
[11:49]   RK : HUL touched 945 and came down
[11:49]   Shai : Buy levels trigger abv 20290 if 20240 holds
[11:49]   RK : that was a quick 10 up 5 down move in HUL
[11:49]   Shai : tgt 20437
[11:52]   Shai : selelrs still in BNF at 20250
[11:53]   Shai : sellers**
[11:59]   Shai : 20000 pe and 20500 ce bth same price about
[11:59]   Shai : one of them is a big winner as this level is a pivot into tom
[12:00]   Shai : potential, move if to yesterday lows or back to 20610 by tom
[12:00]   Rav : axis sbi SBU….will pull down bnf but bnf is LBU with huge addition of 25%
[12:02]   Tejpreet : Rav what is option build up in SBI 300 call looks tempting around 11.
[12:03]   Amit J : this rally started with cut, may be ending with a cut
[12:03]   Shai : BNF big buyers
[12:04]   Shai : but price is heavily against them below 20250
[12:04]   r m : gap filled in sync
[12:05]   Shai : 20134
[12:05]   Rav : 310-330ce oi:1.1 cr avoid long
[12:06]   Tejpreet : ok Rav.
[12:07]   Shai : 20112 is vah
[12:07]   Rav : 290-310pe oi: just 49 lacs in sbi….bearish
[12:08]   Shai : 9063 vah
[12:10]   Rav : yesterday with -0.25% closed and today it will be closed with +0.25% to match with RR cut………….
[12:10]   Shai : 80% rulel below VAH tgts 9009/ 20016
[12:16]   Shai : Buyers first time today at 9069- 9077 and 20160- 20185
[12:17]   Shai : High risk long for 20280 with sl of 20165 cmp 20225
[12:18]   Shai : NF down auction may be over
[12:18]   Shai : Intra tgt is 9115 from 9085 cmp sl of 9061
[12:20]   Shai : BNF safety for longs only abv 20300
[12:25]   Rav : 9200ce writing and 9000pe writing going on
[12:27]   Manoj : This year I held shorts on two days, jan 14 th and mar 3rd..and see wht happnd next day..sheer bad luck
[12:27]   Shai : Positional BNF close below 20250 today in F is not good
[12:27]   Shai : oops Manoj
[12:27]   RK : Manoj 🙁
[12:28]   Shai : Actauuly RR was rumored to announce on Tues
[12:28]   Rav : we alerted on thursday itself
[12:28]   Shai : Yes I remeber Ravi
[12:28]   Manoj : I missed it
[12:29]   Shai : But the other thing is that he spoke of no rate cut in interview on rising oil
[12:29]   Shai : Now he has left inflation aside and talking about falling growth
[12:30]   Rav : crude oil reduction impact will be known only by last qtr of this year as we have revoving credit ranging from 3-6 months
[12:38]   Rav : bull bear sideway days detection….http://www.screencast.com/users/Ravicbe/folders/Jing/media/f9376e69-fe50-403c-bf94-2606e7490066
[12:40]   r m : Thanks Rav
[12:59]   r m : buyers
[13:00]   RK : good to see them at IB low 🙂
[13:01]   Shai : BNF still undecided at 20250
[13:02]   RK : Shai HUL can we add above your level of 945..2 days resisting there..
[13:06]   Shai : HUL may be hinting a revisit to 920 first
[13:06]   RK : great
[13:06]   Shai : poosibly 906
[13:06]   Shai : looks extended sideways now
[13:07]   RK : fine..thanks
[13:07]   Shai : NF did 9105 , bring sl to 9077 and lock some profits
[13:26]   RK : accumulation in Asian paints
[13:38]   r m : now bnf joins
[14:03]   Varun : @shai whts wap
[14:04]   Varun : fr nifty
[14:04]   r m : 9105 approx
[14:04]   Varun : thnks rm
[14:05]   r m : welcome
[14:05]   Varun : and fr bnf
[14:06]   r m : 20370
[14:06]   Varun : cool 🙂
[14:07]   Varun : both near ibl
[14:07]   r m : yes
[14:07]   Varun : perfect trades for ib range if they cross
[14:07]   RK : Varun thats why NF cannot climb IBL :)..it sruggles there many times
[14:08]   Varun : till now its played perfect ova open
[14:08]   Varun : touched pvah to reverse
[14:08]   Varun : should see an afternoon rally
[14:08]   Varun : lets see 🙂
[14:16]   RK : KRA in NF
[14:17]   Shai : BNF wekening
[14:17]   Shai : 20016 trade possible below 20110
[14:30]   Shai : 20024
[14:30]   Shai : secod test of 20100 is another sell
[14:31]   Shai : can drop to 19955
[14:31]   Shai : 19883 FA will come tom
[14:31]   RK : then FA 19983 is there
[14:31]   RK : *19883
[14:31]   RK : ok
[14:31]   Shai : sl is pull back high 20320 though
[14:35]   Shai : what a day
[14:35]   Shai : BNF below VAL
[14:35]   Shai : NF done val almost
[14:35]   Varun : 80
[14:35]   Shai : that 80% was quick today
[14:36]   Varun : 80 % sometimes is boom boom
[14:36]   Varun : and today was one
[14:36]   Varun : once pvah gone
[14:36]   Varun : its was tought o hold
[14:37]   Varun : @shai if we close below ath, will it be considered a fa on daily time framwe
[14:38]   Shai : Logic of that FA is to go below pdl
[14:39]   Varun : ok
[14:39]   Varun : still lots to work then
[14:39]   Shai : but there is xcess at top so short trem top for sure
[14:39]   Varun : big excess
[14:39]   Varun : will make it very very tough and massive sideways in this region to cross
[14:41]   Shai : 8944 coming
[14:42]   Shai : 9021 sl in NF cmp 8996 tgt 8944
[14:46]   Tejpreet : brought bn at 19852
[14:47]   Tejpreet : just 2 lot
[14:47]   Shai : 19770 break can trigger a further slide
[14:47]   Shai : Now below FA
[14:47]   Shai : 19521 obj below 19768
[14:48]   Shai : Buyer in NF at 8966
[14:50]   Amit J : axis low 608 shai level. superb
[14:52]   Rav : 8200-9000ce LL happening
[14:53]   Rav : premium shrinks to 30
[14:53]   Shai : 8944 NF
[14:53]   Shai : market dropping on it’s own weight now
[14:54]   Shai : can bounce
[14:54]   Tejpreet : superb call on Nf covers bn loss.
[14:54]   Shai : 8908 next supp below 8944
[14:54]   Amit J : shai trend day. can we close at days low
[14:55]   Shai : yes trend day pull back highs at 9105 and 18305
[14:55]   Shai : 20305*
[14:55]   Shai : don’t add new shrts here
[14:59]   Rav : nf LU
[15:00]   Rav : Indicates reversal of trend
[15:05]   Shai : 8982
[15:06]   Varun : shai ur fa trgt achived
[15:06]   Varun : cool man.well done
[15:06]   Varun : in bnf
[15:08]   Shai : But we are below FA points
[15:08]   Shai : which is short trem neg
[15:09]   Shai : 8810- 8888 F had thos eheavy buyers on budget day
[15:09]   Shai : 8930 last round of buying on budget day
[15:09]   Shai : but this close at 8960 is weak
[15:10]   Amit J : mar end is expected to be poor
[15:12]   Shai : close at day lows
[15:14]   Shai : BNF forced to look ta thse anomalies now
[15:14]   Shai : 19592/ 19520
[15:14]   RK : 19592/19520
[15:14]   RK : 🙂
[15:14]   Shai : fast changing objectives in BNF
[15:15]   Shai : was weak below 20250 for 300 points but weaker now below FA point
[15:15]   RK : person who invented SL is a god 🙂
[15:16]   Shai : Roughly 19521/ 19546 is obj of the auction
[15:17]   Shai : Auction changes polarity today
[15:17]   Shai : Use th highs now to add shorts
[15:20]   Rav : BNF would have terrified both bulls and bears by now.
[15:20]   Tejpreet : rav true 14 trades net gain 650 rupees
[15:21]   Tejpreet : 🙂
[15:26]   Shai : Don’t think bears will push hard tom
[15:26]   Shai : looking for a consolidating 8925- 9000 kind of range tom
[15:27]   Varun : todays profile would be something diff @shai
[15:27]   Varun : 🙂
[15:27]   Shai : yes trend day profile
[15:28]   Varun : would eb tough to open such an elongated profile in blog 🙂
[15:28]   Shai : we call it a moving profile like Jan 30 in BN
[15:28]   Rav : 8900 pcr is big support and 19500 is for BN. Next 2 days will be rangebound to write calls and puts by biggies comfortably at high premium being first week of series
[15:28]   Shai : + holiday on friday should invite writers
[15:29]   Shai : 8922 was a VPOC of 22/02 and very large buy volume seen there
[15:29]   Shai : next round only below 8922F
[15:29]   Shai : vpoc of 23/02
[15:30]   Rav : NIFTY PCR is inching up heavily
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Varun : @shai like we have pva, ib levels in nf15 min fp chart
[15:30]   Varun : can we hve vpoc also on them
[15:30]   Varun : would be easy to ralate and spot under todays circumastnces
[15:30]   RK : thanks and bye all
[15:30]   Varun : relate
[15:30]   Rav : Bye
[15:31]   Porus : bye all
[15:31]   Tejpreet : Bye All
[15:31]   Shai : Bye all
[15:32]   Shai : Have a nice evening
[15:34]   Amit J : bye
[15:34]   Amit J : todays commentary by shai would be interesting