OrderFlow charts and Notes 11/09

[09:01]   Shai : GM all
[09:02]   Anay : GM All
[09:02]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[09:02]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-11th-sept/
[09:03]   Sharad : GM all
[09:17]   Shai : BNF having a strong open
[09:19]   Shai : BNF is a drive- will tgt 16420, sl below 15375
[09:19]   Shai : cmp 15326- buy
[09:19]   Chiranthan : Buy BNF?
[09:19]   Shai : yes
[09:20]   Chiranthan : SL?
[09:20]   Anay : BNF 16500 CE has resistance at 160-165
[09:20]   Anay : needs to cross it for further upside
[09:20]   Shai : ok
[09:25]   Shai : Yesterday’s orderflow and Open Interest in BNF favors long side
[09:25]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:26]   Shai : confirmation is just price staying abv 16280
[09:27]   Kathir : @good morning Shai RM anay sumit and all 🙂
[09:29]   Shai : If bnf falls below 16270 it will invite long liquidation to 16110 again
[09:30]   Sumit : hi Kathir
[09:30]   Anay : GM Kathir
[09:31]   r m : Hi Kathir
[09:31]   Sumit : Shai, please adjust nf candle size up one font
[09:31]   Kathir : @SHAI USD/INR support now?.
[09:32]   Shai : 60.92
[09:32]   Kathir : fut right?
[09:32]   Shai : yes
[09:33]   Kathir : ok thanks
[09:33]   Shai : let 61.04- 61.14 clear out- no trade zone
[09:33]   Shai : No *new* trade zone
[09:33]   Kathir : ok
[09:36]   Shai : 16326 is a sell order in BNF
[09:36]   Shai : Cancle drive- but auction still up
[09:37]   Shai : NF has some selling to worry about below 8140
[09:37]   Shai : yesterday’s late afternnon auction was 8122- 8140 and was open
[09:39]   Shai : Exit BNF long atrde here 16310- we will attempt the same above IBH
[09:41]   Vinay : bnf open=low at 270, we drop below that can revisit 169-105
[09:41]   Shai : yes
[09:42]   Shai : Could be a failed upper look and invite longs to cover
[09:44]   Shai : Messy open- NF below VAH and BNF way abv vah
[09:44]   Shai : Market is not in sync
[09:45]   Shai : My first impression of that BNF opening volume was an open drive which would have meant 100 BNf points in 20 minutes!
[09:45]   Shai : but NF has other ideas
[09:47]   Shai : we let it play out now- IB bands exit could be a safe trade today for a normal variation day
[09:47]   Shai : NFmeets buyers again
[09:48]   Shai : 16325 is that seller and you can see that in the S profile on BNF on left
[09:58]   Kathir : @shai what is the support now for reliance fut?
[09:59]   Shai : intra day?
[10:00]   Kathir : yes shai
[10:00]   Kathir : and short term too
[10:02]   Shai : 1024.1 F was a support it had to hold
[10:03]   Shai : 1016 now short trem
[10:03]   Shai : abv 1024.8 it can run to 1031
[10:05]   Kathir : ok thanks
[10:08]   Shai : welcome
[10:08]   Shai : IB band is at 15356 with another 7 minutes to go
[10:09]   Shai : we will initiate longs abv IBH in BNF with stops below vwap for 16423 tgt on a crossover
[10:11]   Shai : OrderFlow in BNF not really great this morning
[10:11]   Shai : But move coming along based on yesterday’s data
[10:12]   Shai : But we will stay trade long as it is a break from a 3-1-3 pattern
[10:13]   Anay : @Shai BNF order flow file not found
[10:13]   Anay : size also shows 0 KB
[10:13]   Shai : just a sec- I had changed the file name yesterday
[10:21]   Shai : From yesterday- http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-100914/
[10:34]   Mandar : GM All. Shai, what volatility is to be considered for option calculatior?
[10:37]   r m : Hi
[10:37]   r m : Hi Mandar, which option
[10:37]   Kathir : hi mandar
[10:39]   Mandar : Hi RM, Kathir.
[10:39]   Mandar : this is 8200 call
[10:39]   Mandar : it gives me 2 values
[10:40]   Mandar : therotical and actual
[10:40]   r m : 11.7814 is the one given by option calculator for 8200CE
[10:40]   r m : it works well for intraday projections
[10:41]   Mandar : ok
[10:41]   Mandar : this had default setting of 24% volatility
[10:42]   r m : ok, I am using NOW option calculator, easier to use because it populates the future and option price automatically
[10:44]   Mandar : thanks RM
[10:44]   r m : welcome
[10:54]   Mandar : @RM, how is that 11.7814 figure arrived at? I am a layman in options 🙂
[10:55]   r m : I don’t know much about it either, value was calculated by Option calculator
[10:56]   Kathir : @shai nf bnf ?
[10:56]   Mandar : ok
[10:56]   r m : it keeps on changing with price, right now it is 11.9624
[10:56]   Mandar : ok
[10:57]   Kathir : nf below 8100
[10:57]   r m : option calcultor calculates IV for bid, ask and LTP and gives an average I think
[10:58]   Mandar : OK
[10:58]   Shai : BNf in a bad place
[10:58]   Shai : below 16270
[11:01]   Narendra : hypo done 8080
[11:01]   Mandar : Shai, can go long in nifty here with stop of 8065?
[11:01]   Sumit : nf crashing fast. any news?
[11:01]   Shai : ok
[11:02]   Shai : Looks like some news baked in
[11:04]   Shai : strict sl tgt 8107/ 8122- (11:01) Mandar :Shai, can go long in nifty here with stop of 8065?
[11:04]   Shai : sudden rise in volatility
[11:04]   Mandar : ok
[11:12]   Shai : 10.47 sell volumes over 70%
[11:12]   Shai : 11.10 buy volumes over 64%
[11:12]   Shai : these guys are taking us for a ride
[11:13]   Anay : hehe
[11:15]   Shai : was watching /es chart when all this was happening here
[11:16]   Shai : Good bounc efrom the 1983 level of support but flies into intra week resiatnace at 1995-97
[11:17]   Mandar : it will go up when NAMO visits US 🙂 ?
[11:17]   Shai : that may just finsih the week closer to 1973 tomorrow
[11:17]   Chiranthan : 1973? which index is this?
[11:17]   Shai : It’s actually Rajan Modi combo here we are looking at
[11:17]   Shai : both fall on same dates
[11:18]   Shai : SPX Chiranthan
[11:18]   Shai : Your canara bank did well today- good spot
[11:18]   Chiranthan : yes
[11:19]   Kathir : Shai any short bnf nf now
[11:19]   Shai : RM, Modi in the US on 29th and 30th right?
[11:19]   Shai : Kathir BNF short with sl 16305 for 16216
[11:19]   Shai : short higher near 270
[11:20]   Shai : 16168 is tgt below 16215
[11:21]   Kathir : ok thnaks
[11:21]   r m : 27th to 29th I think
[11:22]   Shai : ok- I thought it wa 29th/ 30th
[11:23]   Mandar : @rm .namo meeting 30+ business delegates.
[11:24]   r m : http://tinyurl.com/njy78b5
[11:24]   Shai : That seller in that file above is at 8123-26
[11:24]   Shai : could be long liquidation of yesterday’s buyers
[11:24]   r m : yeah, 26 meetings in 3 days 🙂
[11:24]   Shai : OH Man- really admire his energy
[11:25]   Shai : And I feel pity for the babus travelling with him 🙂
[11:25]   Shai : They mustn’t have worked so hard in their lives
[11:25]   r m : I think soon we may find IAS, IFS officer queing up for VRS 🙂
[11:26]   Mandar : LOL
[11:27]   Mandar : nf did 72
[11:27]   Narendra : i had read somewhere if mkt opens flat higher the chances of big moves
[11:27]   Shai : very jumpy market
[11:27]   Kathir : lol
[11:28]   Kathir : @RM nf 72 was lask week low i guess
[11:28]   Kathir : 8072
[11:28]   r m : Yes Kathir
[11:29]   r m : spot low was 804
[11:29]   r m : 8049
[11:29]   Kathir : ok
[11:30]   Sumit : spot low was 7984 last week’s tuesday
[11:31]   r m : that is right, 8049 is this week’s low
[11:31]   Shai : If auction holds currentnlow of 8072 then it can fill up to 8116 and then down again
[11:31]   Shai : 8118 is also vwap
[11:32]   Mandar : ok
[11:32]   Shai : and like yesterday’s 8140 if we get up we should watch for signs of long liquidation
[11:32]   Narendra : bought 8100 ce lets see
[11:33]   Shai : Having said that objective of the move below 8201 yesterday was 8106 and go done and the objective of the move below 8140 was 8078 also go done
[11:33]   Shai : so anymore downside is a fresh leg and opens up 8020 easily latest by tomorrow
[11:34]   Mandar : ok
[11:34]   Shai : *got**
[11:35]   Shai : BNF runs a chance to go down and look below 16110 on weakness below 16210 before settling down at 16180 for a wekly close tomorrow
[11:36]   Mandar : Shai, positional longs only above 8040 na?
[11:36]   Mandar : sorry 8140
[11:36]   Shai : yes
[11:37]   Shai : now 8140- 50 turning into weekly resistance for next week if not probed today or tom
[11:37]   Mandar : ok
[11:40]   Shai : http://screencast.com/t/IU2yX4Uacjin
[11:51]   Shai : 16270 and below – I’m going back to the file cos lot of longs built up from 16110 yesterday
[11:51]   Shai : Obviously they do not like this failed move above 16300
[11:51]   Sumit : can we sell bnf here with vwap as sl
[11:52]   Shai : (09:42) Shai :Could be a failed upper look and invite longs to cover
[11:53]   Shai : yes that sl is good at vwap
[11:53]   Shai : add vwap+ 8 in BNF
[11:54]   Shai : vwap + 4 in NF to avoid vwap whipsaws
[11:54]   Shai : some use 6 for NF and 12 for bnf but that is a personal choice
[12:01]   Sumit : sold bnf
[12:01]   Shai : sellers adding pressure in NF
[12:02]   Shai : This week from 8195 to 8140 now 8123-
[12:13]   Shai : NF settling into a DD- upper limit may get frozen at 8107 only instead of 8120
[12:13]   Kathir : @RM is it possible to lock the nest screen using pswrd?
[12:14]   Anay : yes
[12:14]   Kathir : how anay
[12:14]   Anay : click “Lock Application”
[12:14]   Anay : Ctrl+W
[12:14]   Kathir : ok what pswrd to release it..loding pswrd?
[12:14]   Kathir : login
[12:15]   Anay : yup…login pw
[12:15]   Kathir : ok thanks
[12:15]   r m : bnf back at PDH
[12:19]   Shai : keep watching for signs of liquidation everytime we get there
[12:20]   Shai : also we have to note the OI figure in BNf tonight
[12:20]   r m : ok
[12:20]   Sumit : only a pink of can save me now 🙂
[12:21]   Sumit : pink OF in bnf
[12:21]   Kathir : where is the vwap bnf nf now
[12:21]   r m : should be at 16294
[12:21]   Sumit : 8109 and 16294
[12:21]   Kathir : nf?
[12:21]   Kathir : ok thanks both
[12:22]   Kathir : not nf and bnf.its rm and sumit
[12:22]   Sumit : 🙂
[12:22]   r m : 🙂
[12:22]   r m : only half thanks to me, just for BNF 😀
[12:22]   Kathir : lol
[12:23]   Anay : @Shai please adjust chart to see upper part….NF and BNF
[12:24]   Kathir : @RM look at mcdowels chart today..like a drunken driver driving
[12:25]   r m : 🙂
[12:26]   r m : apt simile
[12:26]   Kathir : 🙂
[12:31]   Kathir : usd/inr new low now
[12:32]   Kathir : @sharad ?
[12:32]   Narendra : europe positive opening
[12:39]   Sharad : yes Kathir
[12:41]   Kathir : @sharad what is the supp for usd/inr 61 ce
[12:42]   Sharad : 0.25/.26 very good support
[12:42]   Kathir : ok thanks
[12:42]   Kathir : this matches with shai’s support of 60.92 fut
[12:43]   Sharad : yes and if this support hold then should go to 0.49/0.50 where you should sell it
[12:43]   Kathir : ok
[12:44]   Kathir : 0.2750 low now
[12:44]   Sharad : yes
[12:44]   Sharad : can keep sl of 0.2450
[12:45]   Kathir : ok
[12:46]   Shai : 8101
[12:47]   Shai : buyers adding up, sellers out for the moment
[12:51]   Kathir : @sumit at last you have got pink in bnf 🙂
[12:51]   Kathir : oh dissappeared
[12:52]   Sumit : 🙁
[12:53]   Sumit : its been green for long
[12:53]   Kathir : yeah just now it showed pink for few seconds and vanished
[12:54]   Kathir : any news for markets today ?
[12:54]   Sumit : yes. if it stays below 16270, then we will see it
[12:54]   Kathir : tv guys as usuall say profit booking
[12:55]   Shai : Change OI chart- First time this series we are seeing 8000 pe reduce- http://screencast.com/t/I9347AjXO
[12:56]   Kathir : means short addig up shai?
[12:56]   Kathir : adding
[12:56]   Shai : longs coming out
[12:56]   Kathir : ok
[12:57]   Shai : long *ideas* booking profit actually
[12:58]   Sumit : Shai, nf going past 8107
[12:59]   Kathir : 110 vwap
[12:59]   Shai : Loongs from below have to book part and stay at cost
[13:00]   Chiranthan : Any intraday oppurtunity in NF/BNF?
[13:00]   Chiranthan : opportunity
[13:00]   Mandar : thanks Shai.
[13:01]   Shai : Sell NF near 8105- 8100 with sl above 8127 for 8080
[13:01]   Shai : That is for those who dod not take the long trade from down
[13:02]   Shai : view remains- (11:31) Shai :If auction holds currentnlow of 8072 then it can fill up to 8116 and then down again
[13:03]   Shai : that 8116 was moved down to 8107
[13:03]   Sumit : Kathir, another sign of life 🙂
[13:05]   r m : @Sumit, I thought you hacked into Shai’s system and painted that pink color 🙂
[13:05]   Kathir : yeah hope this time u will be made happy
[13:05]   Kathir : lol
[13:05]   Kathir : only problem is dpoc now
[13:05]   Sumit : Shai has already given short call, so it has to oblige
[13:06]   Sumit : ya, a sudden drop is required
[13:09]   Kathir : past few days they do something around 1 – 15 pm let us see today
[13:10]   Sharad : where is Dpoc
[13:10]   Kathir : 16250 bnf
[13:10]   Kathir : 8098
[13:10]   Sharad : 16248 .. is it
[13:10]   Kathir : 16251 thick blue line
[13:11]   Shai : yes still at 16251
[13:11]   Sharad : ohhh i look at other chart… i did not know meaning of thick blue line.. thanks
[13:11]   Shai : I think that’s where the big liquidation took palce post that morning fall
[13:11]   Anay : @Shai ur data feed is e-signal?
[13:12]   Shai : yes
[13:12]   Sumit : nf is still green, not falling
[13:12]   Anay : is Market Delta + e-signal data feed a must to study MP and OF?
[13:12]   Kathir : if bnf goes nf will follow
[13:12]   Shai : No not at all
[13:12]   Sumit : already Kathir 🙂
[13:12]   Shai : There is ninja which gives good charts too
[13:13]   Anay : ok…
[13:13]   Shai : RM here uses Ninja
[13:13]   Anay : Ninja provides footprint charts?
[13:14]   r m : there is no feed availble for ninja either except esignal, I am using captured data from NEST
[13:14]   Shai : The problem is most of our data providers do not supply to MD etc hence reliance on esignal
[13:14]   Shai : yes Ninja has some charts on a 1 time subscription I think
[13:15]   r m : @Anay, there are plugins available from fin-alg for footprint and tpo charts
[13:15]   r m : tpo is one time payment, while footprint is a recurring hole 😀
[13:15]   Anay : hehe…ok
[13:16]   Anay : thanks
[13:16]   r m : http://www.fin-alg.com/
[13:18]   Anay : btw does Market Delta have MP n OF charts for all NSE FnO scrips?
[13:19]   Shai : yes upto 200 at one time
[13:19]   Shai : that is an esignal restriction not from MD
[13:19]   Anay : right
[13:19]   Anay : thanks
[13:20]   Shai : But OF will not work on all NSE scrips they have to have a good tick size
[13:20]   Anay : hmm
[13:22]   Shai : sellers came back at that 8107 level
[13:23]   Shai : auction is now a DD and more likely to close at the lows today
[13:23]   Sumit : more lows possible?
[13:24]   Shai : yes below 8068 probabaility of finsihing tom at 8020
[13:24]   Sumit : thanks Shai
[13:26]   Shai : We prefer to see the market as a ceilng and a floor, break one floor to go down and the upper one becomes a ceing
[13:26]   Shai : *ceiling
[13:26]   Shai : Now 8068 and 8140- path of least resistance is down
[13:28]   Shai : having said that the sellers were pushed this time to the top floor of Burj this time 🙂
[13:29]   Sumit : 🙂
[13:29]   Shai : lots of floors for them to break 😉
[13:29]   Sumit : gravity should work in their favor
[13:29]   Shai : yeah they always work better at heights
[13:30]   Anay : 🙂
[13:33]   Sumit : OF green again
[13:44]   Mandar : pheww…nf
[13:45]   Shai : exit NF short trade
[13:47]   Shai : DD option closed
[13:47]   Shai : we fly to day high
[13:50]   Kathir : crude 9 month low
[13:53]   Shai : wild day . what gives?
[13:53]   Shai : scene of the crime 8123- 8126
[13:53]   Shai : disturbed a perfectly normal morning
[13:54]   Shai : sellers are cobering from 8126 of earlier
[13:54]   Shai : we will see day high again
[13:56]   Mandar : Shai, trailing stoploss 8105 ok?
[13:56]   Shai : yes
[13:56]   Mandar : thanks
[13:57]   Shai : safelty above 8140 only with short covering
[13:57]   Chiranthan : buy abve 8140?
[13:58]   Shai : let’s wait on that buy abv
[14:08]   r m : sellers back?
[14:09]   Kathir : they went for lunch i guess
[14:10]   r m : ok 🙂
[14:10]   Kathir : bnf pink again
[14:10]   Kathir : below vwap also
[14:11]   Narendra : whats that of Wave line in BNF
[14:11]   r m : that is larger or swing OF line
[14:12]   Shriraj : shai can u pls let me know should i cover cipla f sold at 580 one covered at 571.1 one is pending
[14:16]   Shai : sure
[14:19]   Shai : cipla 568.2 is a good weekly supp
[14:19]   Shai : suggest cover and lookn to short only beliow 568.1 now then tgt is 564.1 and 557
[14:20]   Shriraj : thnx shai i will cover thnx once again
[14:20]   Shai : 580 was a good short actually can reshort if you get 582
[14:20]   Shriraj : k
[14:20]   Shai : welcome
[14:29]   Kathir : @sharad i missed that 61 ce 🙂
[14:30]   Kathir : went to 0.2500 now 0.29
[14:34]   Sumit : Kathir, how much you are paying for nf/bnf per lot overnight postion. is it 10%
[14:35]   Kathir : 12% i guess let us check
[14:36]   Kathir : @sumit 12 – 13 percent
[14:36]   Kathir : 32500 for current price
[14:38]   Kathir : there is a list in nse page which gives the margin required for all f$o scripts ad index..but sometimes it changes with the brokers too
[14:41]   Sumit : so its 8% at 32500
[14:42]   Kathir : 32500 means 12 .5 % should be
[14:42]   Kathir : @ 16300*25/32500
[14:42]   Kathir : i am poor in maths 🙂
[14:43]   Sumit : about 8%
[14:43]   r m : 🙂
[14:43]   Kathir : ok
[14:44]   r m : https://zerodha.com/margin-calculator/Futures/
[14:44]   r m : calculator for dumbs like me 🙂
[14:46]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:46]   Sumit : mis margin is 13000 approx. what is that
[14:46]   Kathir : thanks for the link
[14:47]   Kathir : intraday margin
[14:47]   Kathir : you have to close the position before 3.15 otherwise that will close it
[14:47]   Sumit : ok thanks
[14:47]   Kathir : like borrowing loan from private person
[14:48]   Sumit : 🙂
[14:48]   r m : or convert it into normal before 3:15 pm
[14:48]   Kathir : he will take our property without our permission 🙂
[14:48]   Sumit : thanks rm
[14:48]   Kathir : yes correct
[14:48]   r m : welcome
[14:48]   Kathir : sumit but to convert to normal then you need full margin again
[14:49]   Sumit : just starting up with Zerodha. ready for expiry day 🙂
[14:49]   Kathir : oh great
[14:49]   r m : the great gambler is ready 😀
[14:49]   Sumit : yest Kathir. or just square extra position and convert to normal as rm suggested
[14:49]   Sumit : the backbencher
[14:52]   Kathir : sumit possible check what was the price of 110 ce rcom on last sep expiry day
[14:53]   Sumit : how do I do that
[14:54]   Sumit : in Nest?
[14:55]   Kathir : no in NSE .i have checked its wrong..i have to verify
[14:55]   Sumit : sept 2013?
[14:55]   Kathir : http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/derivatives/equities/historical_fo.htm
[14:55]   Kathir : no sumit sep it is not there i wil recheck
[14:56]   r m : 45 rs
[14:57]   r m : rcom closed at 154.95 on last sep expiry
[14:59]   Kathir : @RM thanks. thats not the expiry..i will check and confirm
[15:00]   Kathir : @RM time 3 pm..what from here
[15:01]   Kathir : any chance to close at highs
[15:01]   r m : here is your sep expiry screenshot for rcom110CE 🙂
[15:01]   r m : http://screencast.com/t/Vn1sSnAAB82
[15:03]   r m : @Kathir, that is what Shai promised 🙂
[15:03]   r m : (13:54) Shai :sellers are cobering from 8126 of earlier(13:54) Shai :we will see day high again
[15:05]   Kathir : ok
[15:15]   Shai : looking ,more like a close at vwap
[15:15]   r m : ok
[15:15]   Shai : sellers persisting
[15:16]   Shai : 8137 and 8134 are 2 highs
[15:16]   Shai : looks like NF wants to stay below 8140
[15:16]   Narendra : shai view on zeel fut shorted today morning @ 290
[15:17]   Narendra : should carry or book intra
[15:17]   Shai : just a min- let me pull up chart
[15:17]   Narendra : ok
[15:18]   Shai : at support 285.8
[15:18]   Shai : can book here but if price opens below 285.3 short again for 280.7 tom
[15:19]   Narendra : ok thanks
[15:20]   Shai : welcome
[15:22]   Kathir : @shai usd/inr near ur supp levels 60.92 is it intra ?
[15:22]   Kathir : or will it go well below that
[15:22]   Shai : yes gap closure
[15:22]   Shai : can go down to 60.71 below 60.86
[15:23]   Kathir : ok it is below 60.86 now.thanks
[15:23]   Kathir : sorry 60.92
[15:24]   Shai : more odds now that it will see 6071 if it bounces and fails to cross 61.09
[15:24]   Kathir : ok
[15:27]   Kathir : @shai bnf close here is positive?
[15:27]   Shai : BNf is in no man’s land actually
[15:28]   Shai : we will wait for the open tomorrow to see what it wnats to do
[15:29]   Kathir : ok sure
[15:29]   Shai : If spx rises above 1896 today we can get an open near 8140 -2 0 points higher
[15:29]   Shai : and then take it from there
[15:29]   Kathir : ok
[15:29]   Shai : else we are in this range again tomorrow
[15:30]   Shai : 8080- 8140
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Kathir : todays range is bit big in NF 🙂
[15:30]   Sumit : good bye everyone
[15:30]   Anay : 1996
[15:30]   Mandar : bye all.
[15:30]   Kathir : thanks and bye all
[15:31]   Shai : yes 1996 Thanks spx
[15:31]   Shai : Bye all
[15:31]   Shai : Have a good eve
[15:31]   Anay : bye all