OrderFlow charts and notes 11/12

[08:58]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:58]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-11th-dec/
[08:58]   Porus : GM all
[08:58]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-1012/
[08:58]   r m : NF Hypo1 below 8377➜8355-8354➜8304 SL 8412 Hypo2 above 8412➜8440➜8478 SL 8376 DEC Fut levels
[08:59]   Keshav : gm all
[08:59]   r m : BNF Hypo1 above 18600➜18720➜18815 SL 18540 Hypo2 below 18540➜18449➜18321 SL 18607 DEC Future levels
[09:02]   Shai : GM all
[09:03]   Janak : BNF Hypo1 above 18600➜18720➜18815 SL 18540
[09:03]   Janak : shai – how do we play this? if bn opens above 600 – does one imm. get into longs or wait for a retrace and again a cross of 600
[09:07]   r m : Hi Janak 🙂
[09:08]   Janak : hi rm – give me santy pre-rally today ::
[09:08]   Janak : santa
[09:08]   r m : Hypo says if auctions above 600
[09:09]   r m : so you need to be reasonably sure that auction is happening above 18600 and not just a few ticks – my two bits 😀
[09:09]   Janak : that is approx. 5 min wud be consider as a guideline?
[09:09]   Janak : 5 min above 600
[09:10]   r m : maybe Shai, guess we have to consider the momentum too, there are times when BNF goes 300 points up or down in 5 minutes, but overall much safer to wait out first few minutes
[09:11]   r m : *maybe Janak 🙂
[09:11]   Amit J : sun pharma jyoti structure in focus today
[09:12]   Sharad : GM all
[09:12]   r m : Thanks Amit
[09:14]   Janak : ok rm – thnx
[09:14]   r m : welcome
[09:14]   Porus : amit, what are the events in htese two?
[09:15]   Amit J : sun flows
[09:15]   Amit J : jyoti sector news
[09:24]   Shai : auction beleo VAL in NF
[09:24]   Shai : most probabaly a test of 8355
[09:28]   Shai : if market auctions abv 8385 today then that 80% trade to 8413 will be a great risk reward
[09:28]   Shai : intra day
[09:29]   Shai : BNF was an inside day
[09:29]   Sharad : RM is Nest price updating ?
[09:29]   r m : no
[09:29]   Shai : and selling if severe below 18440 can bring 18321
[09:29]   Sharad : ok… but trade is going
[09:30]   r m : yeah, some issue with broadcast servers
[09:30]   Shai : g short below 8354 for 8317/ 8304
[09:30]   Sharad : ok
[09:30]   Shai : sl will be val all day for that view
[09:31]   Shai : turning into an open drive down
[09:31]   r m : ES fell in a well last night!
[09:31]   Shai : this open drive is more significant if coming after a balance day
[09:32]   Sharad : so now Shai where any bounce can go from here
[09:32]   Sharad : want to short
[09:32]   r m : Target 1 of NF and BNF Hypo reached quickly
[09:35]   Shai : intra day upto 8355
[09:35]   Shai : max 8377
[09:35]   Sharad : ok and BNF
[09:35]   Shai : tgt is upto 8271
[09:36]   Sharad : very nice
[09:36]   Shai : BNF will stall at 18580 now
[09:36]   Sharad : ok
[09:36]   Shai : but does not look like much below 300 at the momemnt
[09:37]   Shai : this open today is significant in the context of the coming week for shorts
[09:38]   Shai : this morning’s high will very imp now all of next week
[09:38]   Shai : and for intra day all we watch tday is vwap
[09:44]   Janak : below 8304 – 8200 can come fast?
[09:46]   Janak : 8330 to 8304 is the safest trade on the earth here?
[09:46]   Janak : and also 18400 to 18321?
[09:46]   Sharad : Janak Shai said bounce can go till 8377 max so watch on it too
[09:47]   Janak : it cant go there now sharad – it was meant for early few min
[09:47]   Sharad : ok lets see
[09:52]   Shai : Janak 8317 was the small obj below 8355 – we have done 8317
[09:52]   Shai : short is near vwap now with sl of 8377
[09:53]   Janak : bn in a hurry to hit 18k first?
[09:53]   Shai : gen on a drive day vwap will not get visisted and any move near vwap is sold
[09:54]   Porus : Shai, bn target is 18321?
[09:55]   Shai : yes
[09:55]   Janak : 325 done
[09:55]   Shai : if 18295 breaks then new shorts cone with sl of 18340 for 18030 by tom
[09:57]   Janak : NF needs to join the party to do 8275
[09:57]   Shai : 8316
[09:58]   Sharad : 8316 done now towards 8355/8377 Shai ?
[09:59]   Janak : 8255/8277 🙂
[09:59]   Rahul G : shai though the fall is there but the delta is not hugely negative
[10:00]   Sharad : jjjjjaanaaakkkk
[10:00]   Sharad : janak wait din abhi shuru hua hai…
[10:00]   Keshav : wondering the same on delta
[10:01]   Janak : unless the OTF buyer turns up here – perfect pitch for bears to tank this nf/bn by 100/300 eod
[10:02]   Sharad : yes if you say eod its ok… 2/3 hours teji walo ko bhi jine do yaar
[10:02]   Sharad : green BNF
[10:02]   Janak : for months – teji wale sab ki keh ke to le rahe he :-0
[10:03]   Sharad : hehe
[10:03]   Janak : u got a 60 pts bounce in bn here
[10:04]   Sharad : yes i am long both’
[10:04]   Sharad : NF already gave 10
[10:04]   Sharad : Shai bole to manene ka baba
[10:06]   Sharad : NF also green now
[10:06]   Sharad : BNF VAL visit possible?
[10:07]   Sharad : ohhh and Shai rekha also there to visit
[10:07]   r m : baby steps for contra trend, dpoc and vwap first 🙂
[10:07]   Sharad : true RM
[10:08]   r m : Kris has turned bullish now!
[10:10]   Shai : vwap in NF
[10:15]   Shai : Rahul these are positional playersand may not reflect in day delta
[10:15]   Shai : But yesterday delta fig was negative at close
[10:16]   Janak : sold bn at 390
[10:16]   Rahul G : oks
[10:16]   Shai : shorts at 8340 with sl of 8361 for 8317 and 8305
[10:17]   Janak : i think this week belongs to bears
[10:26]   Sharad : sold @ vwap in NF
[10:26]   Shai : even after such a big fall in 1 hour- BNF is still inside !
[10:27]   Sharad : sold BNF also @ 18415
[10:33]   Shai : as per the open shorts have to come back at vwap or below IBL now
[10:34]   Shai : and if vwap holds all day then we close today at lows
[10:34]   Shai : the fiip sid eis that if vwap is crossed then morning shorts will have stops just abv them and create a sht covering move
[10:34]   Shai : short*
[10:35]   Sharad : so above vwwap can go to 8355/77
[10:35]   Shai : 8355
[10:35]   Sharad : ok so for shorting will wait till then
[10:36]   Sharad : because @ vwap price not going down for last 30 minutes… so may go up above vwap
[10:37]   Shai : it’s a quite period after IB
[10:37]   Shai : chai time of the market
[10:37]   r m : 🙂
[10:37]   Assortz : 🙂
[10:37]   Sharad : yes Shai and green in both also
[10:38]   Assortz : bada breakfast done..ofcourse aftermeal chai is needed 🙂
[10:38]   Shai : 🙂
[10:38]   Shai : Proble with vwap crossing on drive is that IB low may remain and we get a normal ay
[10:38]   Shai : day*
[10:39]   Shai : a strong drive will keep price away from vwap always
[10:39]   Shai : there are responsive buyers coming in at lows in NF
[10:40]   Shai : delta is back plus
[10:40]   Sharad : yes
[10:49]   Janak : bn more keen to go down
[10:49]   Janak : nf pulling up
[10:52]   Janak : NS 8298 – another 100 tank by tom eod will be good
[10:52]   Janak : what the fish! nf delta crosses 100
[10:55]   Janak : are rm bhaiya – ektho jaunpurse bearva ko bulao ;
[10:56]   r m : wo BNF pe baitha hai na 🙂
[10:56]   Janak : han – abhe sasura nf pe bhi …..:-
[10:57]   Janak : o pink ka nati
[10:57]   r m : tanik sabar karo bhaiyya, ek ghanta mein 300 points se pet nahin na bhara apka 😀
[10:58]   Janak : jeb bhara lekin petwa to khali hi khali……;
[10:58]   r m : lol
[10:58]   r m : try some roasted peanuts for that 🙂
[10:59]   Janak : with coffee?
[10:59]   Janak : coffee PK fir trading?
[11:02]   r m : roasted peanuts are a better combo with some other liquids!
[11:02]   Amit J : adv decline 1:2
[11:10]   Janak : nf warming up to bears?
[11:14]   Janak : 8200pe at 33 and 8100pe at 15 – can be bought in bulk for tom eod?
[11:15]   Janak : bole to 100 and 50 tgts repsectively?
[11:44]   Shai : 18000 puts in play below 18300
[11:44]   Shai : 18030 tgt tom close
[11:44]   Janak : nf?
[11:44]   Sharad : wow
[11:45]   Shai : NF 8271
[11:45]   Sharad : 8225 ?????
[11:45]   Sharad : 8271 today Shai
[11:45]   Shai : yes your 8225 spot
[11:45]   Sharad : 8225 future….
[11:45]   Shai : yes below IBL can come by close
[11:46]   Sharad : 8271 future should come by 1 pm around
[11:46]   Shai : yes 8180 spot should be equivalent
[11:46]   Shai : if 8262 spot goes then 8180 is on
[11:47]   Sharad : very nice
[11:47]   Shai : 8262 spot should be that 8305 F
[11:47]   Sharad : ok
[11:47]   Shai : complex mix in premiums this week
[11:47]   Shai : this series rather
[11:48]   Sharad : because no one was expecting fall … and they will capitulate tomorrow when ES they will see around 2010
[11:50]   Shai : basis is abv 34 from 8550- http://screencast.com/t/2ah7v1HyBIs
[11:50]   Sharad : means?
[11:51]   Sharad : premium?
[11:52]   Shai : yes
[11:52]   Sharad : ok
[11:53]   Shai : vwap short idea at 10.15 – (10:16) Shai :shorts at 8340 with sl of 8361 for 8317 and 8305
[11:54]   Shai : BNf short at vwap has also brought IBL
[11:54]   Sharad : Give us 8305 shai …
[11:54]   Shai : Now new shorts only below IBL
[11:54]   Shai : vwap + few remains a ssl
[11:54]   Shai : SL
[11:55]   Sharad : so cover shorts here ?
[11:55]   Shai : and if IBL breaks now in next 30 mins we get a close at day lows
[11:55]   Shai : yes and can reshort below 8304
[11:55]   Sharad : ok
[11:55]   Shai : Idea is to remain short today
[12:02]   Shai : OI change chart – 8400 PE dropping OI today- :http://screencast.com/t/o6hZptDCf
[12:11]   Ravi V P : pcr 8200:5.6 8300
[12:11]   Ravi V P : 8300 pcr 2.8
[12:12]   Ravi V P : 8350 pcr is 1.4
[12:33]   Shai : vwap crossed in NF
[12:33]   Shai : signs of change in day momentum
[12:33]   Porus : Shai, nf short below8355 is still a trade, or now only below IBL
[12:34]   Shai : Not now
[12:34]   Kathir : Hi Shai RM and all firends
[12:34]   Kathir : 🙂
[12:34]   Shai : this can go back to 8355/ 8377
[12:34]   Shai : we will see if seller wants to come back at 8370 around
[12:35]   Shai : for the moment short will squeeze abv vwap
[12:35]   Janak : sold bn at 415 – sl vval shai for tgt 300?
[12:35]   Janak : val
[12:36]   Shai : rumors of an RBI conf
[12:36]   Shai : after close
[12:36]   Shai : or is it on TV?
[12:36]   Sharad : for what?
[12:38]   Shai : Nobody knows- but post mkt hours a press con per rumors
[12:38]   Kathir : no news for RBI – LS to consider coal mines bills today is the latest news
[12:39]   r m : Hi Kathir, Sir you will have to pay penalty for long absence 😀
[12:39]   Shai : after Rajan’s price cut anytime – guess these kind of rumors will keep appearing 🙂
[12:39]   Kathir : already bulls have paid 🙂
[12:39]   Janak : yes kathir – pl. send us tickets for PK with some cash also for the popcorn ;;
[12:39]   Ravi V P : http://rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicEngagement.aspx
[12:40]   Shai : Thanks Ravi
[12:40]   Shai : that helps
[12:42]   Kathir : @janak sure i will send you LINGA tickets
[12:42]   Janak : it released today?
[12:42]   Sharad : so RBI meeting already done at 9:30 and press conferance at 5:20 pm
[12:42]   Janak : THALIVA!
[12:42]   Ravi V P : http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/NewLinkDetails.aspx?Id=1
[12:42]   Shai : There is a R gandhi in the list which Ravi posted on RBI 🙂
[12:43]   Ravi V P : this might that buzz
[12:43]   Janak : RBI=RahulBabaInsane
[12:44]   Kathir : 🙂
[12:44]   Janak : or RBI=RmBhaiIntelligent;
[12:44]   Shai : Problem is that Rajan likes to surprise and bears have to be cautious of that cut anytime
[12:44]   Porus : R Gandhi – D Govnr
[12:44]   r m : @Janak, just saying Rahul Gandhi is enough, rest is understood 🙂
[12:45]   Janak : lol
[12:45]   Kathir : lol
[12:45]   r m : sometimes I think he is a BJP undercover asset in Congress!
[12:46]   Janak : ha ha
[12:46]   Kathir : @shai selleres came there @ 8350-55 range?
[12:46]   Janak : unintentional undercover – bjp has just to prod him to say anything
[12:48]   Kathir : @janak RM now in TN congress have joined actress kushbu in their team to capture power again
[12:48]   Janak : Khushbu will win / Cong will still loose
[12:48]   Kathir : 🙂
[12:50]   Kathir : kushbu first joined DMK they loast the power and even they was not able to become opposite party of assemble..now she left DMK and joined cong as they have already dont have anything
[12:50]   Janak : 8200pe – buyers jump from 1.95L to 4.2L
[12:53]   Janak : now 5.8L – writers are covering maybe?
[12:55]   Shai : using 8355 as ref line now abv vwap for the selelr
[12:56]   Shai : should go to 8378 abv that with sl of 8344
[12:56]   Shai : shorts back only below vwap now
[12:57]   Shai : still a long liqudation profile – no shorts in Nifty but could be cash selling at highs
[12:57]   Janak : (10:16) Shai :shorts at 8340 with sl of 8361 for 8317 and 8305
[12:57]   Shai : BNF also cut don on theneg delta and 18300 holding
[12:57]   Janak : this trade is still on
[12:58]   Shai : No Janak
[12:58]   Janak : ok
[12:58]   Shai : we got 2 bottoms at 8318
[12:58]   Shai : 8319
[13:00]   Shai : log abv 8356 for 8377 with sl of 8342
[13:00]   Ravi V P : pcr
[13:00]   Shai : *long
[13:04]   Janak : maybe a false breakout above vwap to trap the longs?
[13:06]   Assortz : steady green
[13:07]   Assortz : best to short with pink+ below VWAP combo
[13:22]   Janak : sold at 465 with 30 pt sl
[13:22]   Janak : last chance for bears
[13:27]   Ravi V P : 8394.40 is punched as high
[13:28]   Janak : 8358 retrace is 50%?
[13:29]   Janak : similarly 465 is roughly 50% of 615-306 fall
[13:32]   Janak : booked part at 415
[13:32]   Janak : baki sab rm ke haath me ab :
[13:33]   r m : good trade Janak, congrats!
[13:34]   Ravi V P : 8358 is 38%
[13:34]   Janak : आभारी huzur :
[13:35]   Janak : ok ravi
[13:39]   Shai : on- (13:00) Shai :long abv 8356 for 8377 with sl of 8342
[13:39]   Janak : good call shai – it went to 8343 and bounced
[13:48]   Shai : change in day profile now- vwap holding up on declines
[13:49]   Shai : idea for long- (10:34) Shai :the fiip side is that if vwap is crossed then morning shorts will have stops just abv them and create a short covering move
[13:49]   Shai : (10:38) Shai :Proble with vwap crossing on drive is that IB low may remain and we get a normal ay
[13:50]   Assortz : yday IB high plays any roll? we have just touched it..
[13:50]   Shai : for the trend in Nifty – nothing changes till 8377- 8384 is crossed
[13:50]   Shai : above that it will rise to 8410- 8430/40 again
[13:51]   Shai : IB high?
[13:51]   Assortz : IB high of yday
[13:51]   Shai : Not really I prefer to track value areas of the prev day
[13:51]   r m : that was 8407 i think
[13:52]   Assortz : RM – BNF
[13:52]   Assortz : not interested in NF 🙂
[13:52]   Assortz : ok Shai
[13:53]   r m : BNF IBH was 18525
[13:53]   Assortz : thanks RM..
[13:53]   r m : welcome
[13:54]   Porus : 8377 done
[13:58]   Porus : Shai, are we monitoring for a 8384 cross?
[13:58]   Kathir : @rm what abt europe guys now?
[13:58]   r m : may not mean much but BNF back within series VA http://screencast.com/t/Mux0tJnYZb
[13:59]   r m : @Kathir, they are all crawling out of holes 🙂
[14:00]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:01]   r m : NF is way below series VA http://screencast.com/t/OqqqYVIb
[14:02]   Ravi V P : 12:11 Ravi V: 8300 pcr 2.8
[14:03]   Ravi V P : Thanks Shai 8357 booked at 8385
[14:03]   Ravi V P : 40 lots
[14:03]   r m : Good trade Ravi, congrats!
[14:04]   Kathir : great one ravi congrats
[14:05]   Ravi V P : Morning my PC was shutdown for 3 hours and missed calls so
[14:07]   Ravi V P : 8384 :62%
[14:09]   Assortz : seems Hypo 2 will trigger :))
[14:10]   Assortz : hypo 1 in BNF
[14:10]   r m : 🙂
[14:10]   Janak : shai till the day high is taken out in nf – can it be still sell on rise for long-term?
[14:13]   Ravi V P : 8200 8300 8400 PCR OI: 1.14 2.8 5.6
[14:16]   Shai : Porus yes VAl cross puts up for 80% trade
[14:17]   Shai : sl will be 8367 but trade is a good risk reward for 8412
[14:21]   Shai : 2 news from 2 central banks worrying bears
[14:21]   Shai : 1 is ofcourse the RB press meet at 5.30 per that llink abv
[14:21]   Shai : and 2 is news from china about liquidity infusion again
[14:22]   Janak : shai wrote in notes: As of the moment, upside is open till 8748- 8788 for dec above 8625 cross . Downsides for dec should be restricted to lows of 8400- 8349 spot where buyers should respond again. (The level of 8349 was hit in trade on Dec9th and we wait for confirmation here)
[14:22]   Janak : 8748-8788 for dec is a key statement
[14:22]   Shai : second part of DEC is very bullish always
[14:22]   Janak : 8600ce at 12 can be a lottery?
[14:23]   Shai : let it cross 8340- 8350 spot
[14:23]   Janak : atleast it can touch 30-40 if mkt rushes to 8500 in next 2-3 sessions?
[14:23]   Shai : sl is at 8367 for the 80% trade
[14:23]   Shai : delta is off from 198 as we look to enter abv VAL
[14:24]   Shai : val should bring more buyers in the system
[14:24]   Shai : meanwhile BNF has done it almost
[14:25]   Shai : delta has moved from -215 to flat- so all short covering
[14:27]   Janak : bulls continue
[14:30]   Amit J : failed auction?
[14:31]   Shai : in bnf?
[14:31]   Shai : could be
[14:33]   Amit J : yes
[14:33]   Shai : 321 against 306
[14:33]   Shai : could be some stray ticks
[14:34]   Shai : NF slo taken on that 80%
[14:34]   Shai : just got a little bit late on that 80%
[14:34]   Shai : best results come on 80% before 12 noon
[14:34]   Porus : what type of close today?
[14:36]   Shai : difficult dy in NF as we have seen 2 oppising forces in operation
[14:36]   Shai : opposing*
[14:37]   Shai : T vwap they will agree as equals
[14:37]   Shai : context for the week is still open – either daown near 8262 spot tom (8305F) or up near 8440 F
[14:38]   Shai : BNF looks more likely at 18580 weekly close tom +/- few
[14:39]   Janak : oops – i was going to tell shai that tomo eod – bulls may give us a close above 8500 in nf
[14:43]   Shai : so india did well n aus for starters369 against the aussie 517
[14:43]   Shai : Now trick is for Saha to do a century tom and then lets see what Dhoni does 🙂
[14:44]   Assortz : much better compared to last performances
[14:44]   Shai : yes
[14:44]   Shai : vwap back at 8345
[14:44]   Assortz : thats a catch 🙂
[14:44]   Shai : lol- will get very interesting then
[14:45]   Assortz : yes 🙂
[14:46]   Assortz : captain’s knock at aus soil is great for virat
[14:55]   Shai : true
[15:10]   Janak : intraday shorts getting squeezeed here in last 5 min?
[15:11]   Shai : close at vwap
[15:14]   Porus : Shai, today bnf delta from -215 to +ve and will close much above vwap. Should we c/f any longs to tom?
[15:15]   Shai : No Porus
[15:15]   Shai : Let’s keep BNF aside for the moment
[15:15]   Shai : yesterday close at 610 was postive for a move to 730 and it failed this mrning
[15:15]   Shai : so at the moment it looks like it wants to stay in this zone for a while
[15:16]   Amit J : shai your view on dlf please.
[15:19]   Kathir : @Sharad did yousell DLF around 160 range?
[15:19]   Shai : dlf weak below 156.8 again
[15:19]   Shai : minor supp at 154.1
[15:19]   Shai : below that 150.2 tom’
[15:20]   Kathir : spot levels ?
[15:20]   Amit J : thanks and below 150
[15:20]   Shai : larger view seems to suggest a revisist of 143 if we close below 154
[15:20]   Shai : 143/ 141.8
[15:24]   Shai : delta came back to -104
[15:24]   Shai : shrts back at day highs
[15:24]   Shai : look abv val was just a trap
[15:25]   Shai : Nifty looked like cash based selling at the open
[15:25]   Shai : so will wait for FII data
[15:25]   Shai : index shorts may have come in this second leg up after 12.00 noon
[15:26]   Shai : on the spot for short term – the market hesistating at the prev ref level of 8340- 8350 is not good for longs
[15:26]   Shai : 8262 spot supp tom below which 8180
[15:27]   Shai : try allowing 10 pints for spot prices as premiums are not even this series
[15:27]   Shai : points
[15:28]   Shai : usdinr 62.54
[15:30]   Janak : last min heavy buying of NF
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : have a nice eve
[15:30]   Kathir : thanks and bye all
[15:30]   Porus : bye