OrderFlow charts and Notes 12/09/14

[08:55]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:57]   r m : IIP and CPI data after market today at 17:30
[08:59]   Shai : Gm all
[08:59]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-12th-sept/
[09:01]   Sharad : GM all
[09:12]   Kathir : good morning shai rm sharad alll
[09:12]   Rahul G : GM all
[09:13]   Anay : GM All
[09:13]   r m : Hi Kathir
[09:18]   Shai : flattish open
[09:18]   Shai : BNF has a downward bias from OI data
[09:19]   Shai : BNF short in play for 16210/ 16130 – short closer to 16270 with stops above 16315
[09:23]   Shai : 8110- 8116 is our no bias intra zone
[09:25]   Shai : It’s a friday and we are looking at a weekly close for the index- one possibility os 8140 and the other 8090
[09:26]   Shai : last week was also around here – so it’s an extended sideways weekly
[09:30]   Shai : 8110 on the charts yesterday showed that burst of volume in the afternoon session before climing to 8136 and aborted the down move
[09:30]   Shai : any probe lower today has to break 8110
[09:34]   Shai : High probability trade of the day in BNF is sto short every pullback to vwap and go with the pinks
[09:35]   Shai : Yesterday’s charts and notes- http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-1109/
[09:36]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:36]   r m : Hi Sumit
[09:38]   Kathir : HI sumit
[09:39]   Sumit : hi rm, Kathir
[09:39]   Sumit : IIP expected +ve? any idea
[09:42]   r m : YOY Previous 3.4% expected 1.8% (investing.com)
[09:43]   r m : CPI Previous 7.96%, expected 7.80%
[09:43]   Sumit : thanks rm
[09:44]   r m : but data release is after market
[09:44]   r m : welcome
[09:44]   Sumit : I will stay out of overnight position
[09:44]   r m : ok
[09:46]   Shai : yes safer puls weekend effect is there and Mondays are always different
[09:46]   Shai : *plus
[10:00]   Shai : 15 point IB – not much of an edge for intra
[10:08]   Chiranthan : NF below 8110
[10:12]   Kathir : @SHAI rcom spot still 109.70 big support?
[10:20]   Anay : @Shai BHEL and NTPC looking good for longs…
[10:20]   Anay : MP view plz
[10:33]   Shai : sure
[10:35]   Shai : ecom met sellers at 115 and rising supp at 112.7 broken
[10:35]   Shai : now support shifts down to 108 – but new longs better abv 112.7
[10:36]   Shai : *rcom
[10:37]   Shai : rcom more likely to finish now at week lows
[10:38]   Kathir : ok shai thanks
[10:43]   Kathir : @shai usd/inr supp and res from here
[10:47]   Shai : bhel- http://screencast.com/t/o4kDgKCXeXy
[10:47]   Shai : short term look sdpown below 226
[10:47]   Shai : above 226 a quick rise can come to about 240 but abv 226 only
[10:47]   Shai : 211 is next support below 226
[10:48]   Kathir : is this bhel spot ?
[10:48]   Shai : Kathir- USDINR will be on wait mode today ahead of IIp data
[10:48]   Shai : Yes Bhel spot
[10:48]   Kathir : ok
[10:49]   Shai : 61.10 is a prominent POC and likely to hold the usdinr all day till close
[10:49]   Anay : thanks…and NTPC?
[10:51]   Shai : NTPC on track for 138.6 intra
[10:51]   Shai : longer term res at 144 stands out on charts
[10:51]   Shai : more likely to do 134 below 144
[10:52]   Anay : ok thanks
[10:52]   Anay : ITC took support at 350 and moving now…what are upper levels?
[10:53]   Shai : NTPC- http://screencast.com/t/P8nUANu5kdgL
[10:54]   Shai : 359.3 and 364.4 resistances
[10:55]   Anay : ok thanks
[10:55]   Shai : unlikely to cross 364 unless volumes shoot up by over 30%
[10:55]   Shai : 347- 364 likely range
[10:56]   Anay : ok
[10:59]   Shai : BNf staying 16250- 16200
[11:00]   Mandar : GM all. Shai easun….
[11:01]   Shai : wow – 8%% !
[11:01]   r m : Hi Mandar
[11:01]   Mandar : HI RM,Anay
[11:05]   Shai : expiry in 15 days – preferrred view now is that spot goes to close the gap sometime next week beliow 7980 and rises to close at 8100 +/- 20 for the series
[11:06]   Shai : a close above 8145 spot would mean that the dip down is out of the equation
[11:07]   Shai : eyes would be on the 8100 ce pe over next week 144 now
[11:07]   Shai : covers that possibilty of a dip in this series
[11:08]   Shai : series looks locked 8220- 7960 with either side not sustaining a break
[11:10]   Shai : Option OI- http://screencast.com/t/qg3KWqVppG
[11:10]   Shai : 8000 pe and 8200 ce is one pair written
[11:10]   Shai : and 8100 ce pe the other pair
[11:12]   Shai : today’s change-http://screencast.com/t/nH43Mlrt
[11:12]   Shai : 8100 ce pe both belive today will not be very volatile
[11:12]   Shai : *believe
[11:25]   Kathir : @SHAI yest usd/inr ur supp was @ 60.92 and it exactl turned from 60.9275…great view as always 🙂
[11:26]   Shai : think it went lower by a bit
[11:26]   Shai : didn’t check 1 min charts but that’s the impression I got
[11:26]   Kathir : yest it didnt go
[11:27]   Kathir : i was watching till close
[11:27]   Shai : ok
[11:27]   r m : yep, .9275 was Shai’s barrier 🙂
[11:27]   Shai : that was a gap fill number- markets have memory
[11:28]   Kathir : cipla 590 someone was trading here
[11:28]   r m : @Kathir, did you buy USDINR at lows?
[11:29]   r m : or were already long and watching?
[11:29]   Kathir : yest i bought and sold 61 ce
[11:29]   Kathir : today no position
[11:29]   r m : ok, great man, soon Rajan will add your name to USD speculators 🙂
[11:30]   Kathir : lol
[11:31]   Kathir : @RM the driver who drove the mcdowels yest today shifted to reliance 🙂
[11:33]   r m : this driver seems to be holding driving license from bike to earthmover, everything which moves 🙂
[11:34]   Kathir : lol
[11:35]   Rahul G : shai an view onapoolo tyre
[11:35]   Rahul G : apollo tre
[11:42]   Kathir : @RM crude is down almost 15 percent from highs..but they are not rducing the price
[11:44]   r m : Petrol price was reduced last week, the review is on fortnightly basis
[11:45]   r m : I think if you continue shorting crude, very soon Diesel price will also begin crawling down 🙂
[11:45]   Kathir : me 🙂
[11:47]   r m : price review will be o 15th Sep, you may get first Diesel price reduction in 7 years!
[11:47]   Kathir : oh ok
[11:48]   Kathir : they will reduce 50 paise..if crude goes to zero then they will reuce 2 rs
[11:48]   r m : lol
[11:48]   r m : rest is tax 😀
[11:48]   Kathir : yeah 🙂
[11:49]   Kathir : 15 % crude down atleast they have to reduce 10 %
[11:49]   r m : yes
[11:50]   Kathir : bnf below vwap and pink comes now shall we short?
[11:50]   r m : soon private fuel stations will be in operation, then prices will be competitive
[11:51]   r m : every time it goes to 200 buyers spring up
[11:51]   Kathir : private means ?
[11:51]   r m : reliance, essar, shell
[11:52]   r m : they closed down since MMS refused to pay fuel subsidy to them 🙂
[11:52]   Kathir : ok..:)
[11:53]   r m : now price admin structure is likey to be dismantled soon, then there will be a level field
[11:53]   r m : level playing field
[11:53]   Kathir : ok
[11:54]   Shai : sure Rahul
[11:59]   Shai : Apolllo – 224 is still there in the stock
[11:59]   Shai : met short term liquidation at prev high of 217 which was expected
[12:00]   Shai : but buys at 205 and with 198 as final sl will still give 224
[12:01]   Shai : apollo- http://screencast.com/t/KGF0rtomL
[12:01]   Shai : buy dips
[12:03]   Shai : what is worrying for option writers is the vix at 12.46
[12:03]   Shai : refusing to rise
[12:06]   Kathir : bnf above val chance for 80% trade ?
[12:08]   Shai : yes kathir pssible
[12:09]   Kathir : inr also coming down a bit
[12:35]   r m : some sellers showing up at 16270
[13:05]   Shai : nice spot to pick – down to 16240
[13:05]   Kathir : buy shai?
[13:07]   Kathir : time above 1pm now
[13:07]   Shai : no- is s ell
[13:08]   Shai : pink on top
[13:08]   Kathir : ok
[13:09]   r m : looks like a diver’s platform up there 🙂
[13:11]   Shai : small volume pick up
[13:25]   Shai : type of profile seen in the Nifty would suggest that longer time frame may not come in afternoon also
[13:26]   Shai : but today is friday and we know that longer time frame is always active on fri afternoons
[13:27]   r m : @Shai, for trading the view about a possible visit to 7980 next week should one accumulate 8000PE at highs?
[13:27]   Shai : yes
[13:27]   r m : Thanks
[13:28]   Shai : accuulate in small packets upto 8115- 8125 spot and put sl above 8145 spot
[13:28]   r m : thanks
[13:28]   Shai : welcome 🙂
[13:29]   Shai : next week is FOMC also
[13:29]   r m : yes
[13:29]   Shai : But our market will think about that only after IIP
[13:36]   Anay : 10 min OF chart plz
[13:58]   Anay : you there?
[14:00]   Shai : sure
[14:02]   Shai : Volume only 4.21 million
[14:02]   Shai : Aggressive traders missing
[14:04]   Anay : hmm
[14:05]   Shai : Bulk of the selling yesterday took place at 8124 and slightly above
[14:05]   Shai : Bulk of the buying at 8090 and below
[14:05]   Shai : if we probe those zones we get a move
[14:06]   Shai : profile is well balanced now
[14:06]   Shai : more likely to close at 8110 F
[14:07]   Shai : (09:25) Shai :It’s a friday and we are looking at a weekly close for the index- one possibility os 8140 and the other 8090
[14:07]   Shai : 8115 will be in middle
[14:20]   Shai : the weekly OI change chart shows call writers more active at 8300 – http://screencast.com/t/gh1oAW7l0
[14:22]   r m : bnf is trying to break out this time
[14:22]   r m : or maybe higher diving platform 🙂
[14:23]   Sumit : 🙂
[14:24]   Sumit : 16270 not sustaining
[14:27]   r m : every time BNF goes up to 280, it finds Shai’s hypo 1 etched there, what to do, it comes back again 🙂
[14:29]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:30]   Chiranthan : Can short BNF here?
[14:30]   Sumit : Kathir must have started exploring options for monday 🙂
[14:30]   Shai : No Chiranthan – short only on pink now
[14:32]   Kathir : @sumit not yet 🙂
[14:33]   Shai : aggressive NF short with sl of 8149 for 8120
[14:42]   Kathir : 80% trade done in bnf 🙂
[14:43]   Sumit : also in nf
[14:44]   Kathir : nf now does not want to come below vwap band 🙂
[14:45]   Sumit : 🙂
[14:46]   r m : NF accepted Kathir’s challenge 🙂
[14:47]   Kathir : 🙂
[14:47]   Kathir : some big red guys thee
[14:48]   r m : could be profit booking at PDH too
[14:49]   Kathir : ok ..may be you are one among them i guess
[14:49]   Sumit : i think too 🙂
[14:49]   r m : lol, must be weekly profit booking, did not notice any big buying today
[14:51]   Kathir : @RM remember 8000 pe buying levels
[14:51]   Kathir : 13:28 Shai : accuulate in small packets upto 8115- 8125 spot and put sl above 8145 spot
[14:52]   Kathir : 8111 high spot
[14:53]   r m : yes, i thought that weekly decay will be significant, did not buy today
[14:53]   r m : it touched 23.50
[14:54]   Shai : exit the NF intra short
[14:54]   Shai : buyers anticapting good numbers this evening?
[14:55]   Kathir : ok may be monday we can enter that trade
[14:55]   Kathir : iip should be positive news i guess
[14:55]   Sumit : closing at the highs
[14:58]   Kathir : @RM you are right ..that mcdowel driver knows even flight driving too..see mcdowels now
[14:58]   r m : lol
[15:04]   Kathir : @RM give another 80 % trade bnf vah to val now
[15:05]   r m : bnf is planning to cross VAH even 🙂
[15:06]   r m : probably it will do that 335 > 410 part during weekend 🙂
[15:07]   r m : aha, Kathir increasing selling pressure!
[15:09]   Kathir : 🙂 i am not trading this 80% got some 16000 pe
[15:10]   Kathir : pink bnf
[15:10]   Kathir : nf too
[15:13]   r m : ok
[15:14]   Kathir : will exit now anoter 10 mins
[15:16]   Kathir : @RM IIP at 5.30 ?
[15:16]   r m : ok
[15:16]   r m : yes
[15:16]   r m : IIP and CPI
[15:17]   Kathir : ok
[15:17]   Kathir : even currency market closes then
[15:17]   r m : Shai’s 8149 not touched
[15:18]   Kathir : yeah master call
[15:18]   r m : yes, somebody showed exemplary wisdom in Chiddu’s ministry and shifted data info ouside market times
[15:19]   Kathir : @shai usd inr 60.92 supp still there?
[15:20]   Kathir : sbi 30 rs up in last 30 mins
[15:20]   Shai : yes kathir
[15:21]   Shai : but now like I said yesterdayb 60.7 more likely as it does not stay abv 61.10
[15:22]   Kathir : ok.so below 60.90 will it tough 60.70?
[15:22]   Kathir : touch
[15:22]   Shai : yes
[15:22]   Shai : can come today itself
[15:23]   Kathir : in that case what SL 61.10?
[15:23]   Shai : the market always answers – (09:25) Shai :It’s a friday and we are looking at a weekly close for the index- one possibility os 8140 and the other 8090
[15:23]   Shai : 8140 it is
[15:23]   Shai : that is weekly vwap
[15:24]   Shai : and a market playing safe into next week
[15:24]   r m : USDINR is hovering near 2IB
[15:25]   Shai : just pdh +1- (15:17) r m:Shai’s 8149 not touched
[15:25]   r m : ye
[15:25]   r m : yes
[15:25]   r m : they honored PDH 🙂
[15:26]   Shai : We gave up on short cos it made up it’s mind to close at 8140+/- and 8120 was remote
[15:26]   Kathir : 🙂
[15:26]   r m : ok
[15:26]   Kathir : ok
[15:26]   r m : bnf green again, last minute buyers?
[15:26]   Kathir : @shai inr in case short below 60.90 sl 61.10?
[15:27]   Shai : No jeep only 60.99 or 61.01
[15:27]   Shai : *keep
[15:27]   Kathir : ok thanks shai
[15:27]   r m : vow, biggest volume of the day at 16320!!
[15:28]   Amit J : cpi expected to be below 7%
[15:28]   Kathir : @rm from where you find this ?
[15:28]   r m : ok, thanks
[15:28]   Shai : buyers at close
[15:28]   r m : @Kathir, dpoc is the biggest volume of the day 😀
[15:29]   r m : biggest buyer at VAL and biggest seller at VAH – perfect symmetry!
[15:29]   Kathir : @RM oh i thought you have some other option 🙂
[15:30]   r m : no, just word play 🙂
[15:30]   r m : instead of MP jargon i used ordinary words
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great weekend 🙂
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice eve
[15:30]   Anay : bye all
[15:31]   Anay : enjoy the weekend
[15:31]   Shai : and a reat weekend
[15:32]   Sharad : bye all
[15:34]   Kathir : thanks and bye all ..have a nice weekend