Orderflow charts and Notes 12/11/14

[08:49]   Amit J : GM
[08:50]   Sharad : Good Morning all
[08:53]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:53]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-1211/
[08:53]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-111114/
[08:53]   Porus : GM
[08:54]   r m : NF Hypo1 Above 8416➜8444➜8495 SL8371 Hypo2 Below 8346➜8326➜8310➜8304➜8258
[08:54]   r m : BNF Hypo1 Above17585➜17687➜17740 SL17510 Hypo2 Below17470➜17400➜17300
[09:01]   Clay : gm all
[09:02]   Shai : GM all
[09:06]   Clay : rm,announcements for CPI and IIP are after market hours,right?
[09:08]   r m : yes
[09:08]   Clay : ok thanks
[09:10]   r m : Pre-open suggests open near 8416/17600
[09:11]   Chiranthan : to trade hypo levels do I have to wait for some time or should I enter as soon as i get the levels?
[09:12]   Chiranthan : at the market opening
[09:13]   Shai : Best is to wait 10 min post open
[09:13]   Chiranthan : ok
[09:15]   Shai : BNF was a spike at close
[09:15]   Shai : open abv spike high will be bullish
[09:18]   Shai : Open high so far in BNF can be a sign of excess
[09:18]   Shai : smart shorts come below spike high of 17545
[09:19]   Shai : sl of 30- 35 points for 17474
[09:19]   Chiranthan : sell bnf?
[09:20]   Shai : aggressive trade only below 17540 with sl of 17774
[09:20]   Shai : sl of 17574*
[09:21]   Shai : 17540 – 17550 is spike high and also last week high
[09:21]   Shai : above spike high auction is bullish
[09:21]   Shai : below sppike high it will test the spike low around 17475
[09:24]   Amit J : nifty spit crossed your level
[09:24]   Amit J : spot
[09:28]   Chiranthan : sl hit
[09:36]   Shai : NF in a breakout mode
[09:36]   Shai : sl is now 8406 just below pdh
[09:36]   Shai : delta is good
[09:36]   Shai : suggest going with a 8500 ce’
[09:40]   Shai : technically a range breakout would mean that every dip is used to cover shorts
[09:40]   Shai : so vwap should hold all day
[09:40]   Shai : ref lines are also at pdh and vwap
[09:41]   Shai : tgt of the move intra would be 8452/8478/9495
[09:42]   Shai : first hint of trouble for longs is vwap breaking
[09:42]   Shai : second would be auction below pdh
[09:42]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:47]   Shai : BNF after reacing ahead yesterday is not doing much today
[09:47]   Shai : *racing
[09:48]   r m : vwap above PDH though
[10:09]   r m : nf delta negative at highs
[10:10]   r m : does that suggest aggressive short build up?
[10:10]   r m : quantity not siginificant though
[10:11]   Shai : yes players may be using the higher prices to short
[10:14]   Shai : BNF is not leading yet
[10:15]   Shai : I have seen these kind of days when BNF wil do big around 2.30 and afterwards
[10:15]   Shai : as long as it stays abv spike highs – no case for shorts
[10:16]   r m : yesterday FII data was interesting, they shorted index future and shorted index PE too! http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/fiioi1.png
[10:16]   Shai : NF supply is coming higher but abv vwap and pdh the shorts can get frustrated into the close
[10:17]   Shai : Maintain – (09:40) Shai :technically a range breakout would mean that every dip is used to cover shorts
[10:17]   r m : ok
[10:18]   r m : dvah being dragged up in NF
[10:20]   Clay : maybe larger palyer have bought y’day B Nifty near 17300 and they are not willing to up bids aggressively so far
[10:23]   r m : @Clay, NF movement is equally impacted by buy-sell in nifty spot component, which will not be reflected here
[10:24]   Clay : ok
[10:24]   r m : BNF moves into Hypo1
[10:25]   r m : good delta too
[10:34]   Sharad : both above IB
[10:47]   Porus : NF delta at days low
[10:47]   Shai : Open and IB is done
[10:48]   Shai : Now for the day players to see if they want to take it abv IBH
[10:48]   Sharad : once IBH already done Shai
[10:48]   Shai : the longer time frame of the open will keep an eye on vwap and try to defend that prce
[10:49]   Shai : Yes pace is slow- auction taking time
[10:49]   Sharad : ok
[10:50]   Shai : at the close is IIP and CPI
[10:52]   Shai : 8400 ce is in decline – http://screencast.com/t/d1jsIm91
[10:56]   Shai : Market expects a flat IIP today
[10:56]   Shai : sept was around 0.5% so OCT around there is what the market will watch fr
[10:57]   Amit J : iip is not imp. cpi is most imp
[10:57]   Amit J : expectation is 5.3
[10:57]   Shai : CPI is a differnt story and should be below the RBI estimate of 6
[10:57]   Shai : yes 5.3- 5.7
[11:09]   r m : BNF closing on target 1 of hypo1
[11:19]   r m : BNF has done target1
[11:20]   Sharad : wow very fast
[11:21]   r m : yes, it inherited positive delta overnight 🙂
[11:22]   r m : NF in kissing(!!) distance of target1 8444
[11:22]   Sharad : done
[11:22]   r m : oops, already done while i was typing
[11:22]   r m : yeah, lesson that i should type faster 🙂
[11:23]   Shai : spot view update : Resistance likely to play out first near 8380 and if crossed near 8544-8580 spot.
[11:24]   Shai : sl no at 8325 spot tgt 8544-8568-8580 in that 40 point band
[11:24]   Shai : approx as it is a projected fig off 8380
[11:24]   Shai : poosiblr now in Nov series if 8325 holds
[11:27]   Amit J : what is possible in nov series. 8580?
[11:27]   r m : yep
[11:27]   r m : provided 8325 spot holds
[11:27]   Shai : Yes
[11:27]   Amit J : fine
[11:27]   Sharad : 8580 spot means 8615 + future
[11:28]   Narendra : premium will reduce
[11:28]   r m : that depends on when the target will reach
[11:28]   Shai : 8581 was my dec estimate on spot actually
[11:28]   Shai : if it does not come in Nov we wait 1 more month 🙂
[11:28]   r m : 🙂
[11:29]   Shai : 17680 BN spot estimate
[11:29]   Shai : very interested to see what happens there as it is a leader index
[11:30]   Sharad : 17600 spot right now so only 80 left
[11:31]   Shai : I remember keeing both levels on the blog estimates in sept but due to space constraints had to remove them
[11:32]   r m : nifty composite from 3rd to11th was a perfect bell shape
[11:33]   r m : is the stop at 8371 in today’s hypo1 is the POC of that composite profile?
[11:34]   Shai : yes
[11:34]   r m : Thanks
[11:34]   Shai : also 8371 is the vwap of that compo
[11:34]   r m : ok
[11:35]   Shai : 8362- 8371 was the bias point back on MOn – now clear;y at 8407- 8416
[11:37]   Amit J : shai since breakout is from 4 days consolidation. can we expect sharp move in next 2-3 says
[11:51]   Shai : Yes Amit
[11:51]   Shai : should happen under 50 % of the previous time aken
[11:51]   Shai : taken*
[12:01]   Shai : vwap in NF
[12:01]   Sharad : NF more than 20 ticks of 400-500 lots in last 5 minutes …. all sold
[12:02]   Shai : ok
[12:03]   Shai : you are seeing T&S?
[12:03]   Sharad : see effect just came down 10-15 NF
[12:04]   Sharad : i have tick chart in software
[12:04]   Shai : ok
[12:04]   Shai : and data from?
[12:05]   Sharad : same from both chart and data by reliable software
[12:05]   Sharad : 26000 per annum
[12:06]   r m : very reasonable
[12:06]   Sharad : only futre RM
[12:06]   r m : yes
[12:06]   Sharad : future … no cash
[12:06]   Sharad : cash all EOD
[12:07]   r m : only future is avaiable from global datafeed too for about the same rates – future and options
[12:09]   Sharad : yes same
[12:09]   Sharad : future and option
[12:11]   r m : ok
[12:12]   Anay : @Shai if VWAP is broken even once…view of trend day is negated?
[12:19]   Shai : Yes Anay
[12:20]   Shai : Trend day would have been a faster upmove and HH and HL
[12:21]   Shai : We will go with a normal variation day type for today
[12:21]   Shai : IB created higher than prev value
[12:21]   Shai : and range extension seen
[12:22]   Anay : hmmm…ok
[12:34]   Rahul G : shai any advice on bankindia
[12:35]   Shai : cash or fut?
[12:35]   Rahul G : fut
[12:43]   Shai : Bankindia F upsude is there till 300.4
[12:44]   Shai : sl is now 290.7 on the swing
[12:44]   Rahul G : ok thanks
[12:44]   Shai : below 290 can fall to 285 quickly
[12:46]   Janak : hi everyone and a special hi to rm 🙂
[12:48]   r m : Hi Janak 🙂
[12:48]   r m : Welcome on board
[12:49]   Janak : rm sent few apsaras to break my tapasya and brought me back to gambling 🙂
[12:50]   r m : we only sent BNF to Himalayas 😀
[12:50]   Janak : lol
[12:50]   Sharad : Hi Janak
[12:50]   Janak : hi sharad
[12:51]   Janak : how is it going?
[12:54]   Shai : BNf lloking good for 17740
[12:54]   Janak : sl?
[12:54]   Shai : buy abv 17704 with sl of 17670 for 17740
[13:02]   Janak : good call shai
[13:41]   Shai : BNF every dip is meeting buyers
[13:41]   Shai : more likely to close at day highs than NF
[13:41]   Janak : can it be a rotation betn 2ib and 650? till end
[13:42]   Shai : the only prob in that scenario is the IIP/ CPI data at the close which would affct some willing to consider overnight exposure
[13:42]   Shai : rather 17740- IBH
[13:43]   Janak : nf has gone below vwap – bn still to touch vwap
[13:47]   Clay : view on Tata Steel Future,Shai
[13:52]   Anay : where is BNF Vwap?
[13:52]   r m : 17631
[13:52]   Shai : tatasteel weak now below 476 F
[13:53]   Shai : 469.8 is supp
[13:53]   Clay : ok thanks
[13:53]   Anay : ok
[13:53]   Shai : but if t closes abv 476 then can see 491 quickly
[13:55]   Shai : 8416 bracket high visit
[13:55]   Shai : pdh is supp
[13:55]   Shai : below vwap
[14:28]   r m : bnf back at vwa
[14:28]   r m : vwap
[14:29]   Porus : Shai, your ST view on DAX ols.
[14:29]   Porus : *pls
[14:35]   Shai : dax?
[14:36]   Porus : German index.
[14:36]   Shai : I don’t track dax but technical pic is projecting 9800
[14:36]   Porus : ok
[14:36]   Shai : spx is 2060 from here
[14:37]   Porus : ok
[14:42]   Shai : BNF buy again abv 17670 for 17520 with slmof 17635 below vwap
[14:42]   Shai : NF may like to finish the day at vwap 8428
[15:07]   Chiranthan : Any Nifty options to buy?
[15:08]   Shai : we will stay with the 8500 ce
[15:09]   Shai : (09:36) Shai :suggest going with a 8500 ce’
[15:14]   Anay : BNF unable to cross 17700
[15:17]   Shai : yes
[15:17]   Shai : BNf has run up hard
[15:17]   Shai : would like to se eit conslidate here in run up to RBI now
[15:24]   Anay : yes
[15:26]   Shai : sl for the 8500 ce is 8399
[15:26]   Shai : tom
[15:26]   Shai : will go to 8345 if 8399 breaks tom
[15:27]   Shai : NF and BNf delta at opp ends
[15:27]   Shai : rise fot sold into in NF and BNF longs staying from open
[15:29]   Sharad : but after so many days seen delta at 250 one is in plus other in minus
[15:31]   Shai : yes
[15:31]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:31]   Porus : bye
[15:31]   Clay : bye
[15:31]   Sharad : see ya all
[15:31]   Shai : BNF/ NF ratio is favor of BNF longs
[15:31]   Anay : bye all
[15:31]   Shai : Bye all